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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSS4 - Quarterly Report from Asset ManagersAsset Munugement, Iszc. CHANDLER /, INVESTMENT REPORT CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH PERIOD ENDING 1 April 30, 2002 1 1 1 May 14, 2002 9255 Touvie Centre Drire • Shire 350 • San D&•,Sn • C'A 9212 1 -324 9 • 800.3 i 7.4747 - ,5.5,5.540. 3737. 1•i1 X 858.546.37-11 (CHANDLER I I ' CONTENTS 1 ' I. MARKET REVIEW II. PORTFOLIO INSIGHT ' III. PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS 1 1 ICHAND I I I I I I I I 1 J 1 MARKET REVIEW P 11 11 11 [J 1 F Ll THE ECONOMIC BACKDROP Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year over Year) 4.0% Nonfarm Payroll(NFP) (000's) 400 — - - - -- - 300 3.5% 200 100 5% -- 0, -100 -200 -300 2% i -400 i% 500 2.5% Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year over Year) 4.0% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) e% 7% 3.5% 6% 5% -- 4% 3.0% 2% i i% 0% 2.5% -1% -2% - -- 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% � 5'. 9 o z S ' 1' LL 2 ISM Production Mgmt. Index. formerly NAPFF 60.0 0.0 r fhe US economic recession, which began last year, may be ending soon. For example, Q1 '2002 GDP was a large 5.8 %, >ut more than 1/2 of that gain was due to an increase in rosiness inventories. GDP strength usually comes from xmsumer spending as opposed to inventory re- stocking, which s only a temporary benefit. Additionally, Nonfarm Payroll yowth turned positive in April after registering negative growth or the previous eight months. Another encouraging sign is that sentiment in the Manufacturing sector has improved sharply as he ISM Production Management Index above indicates. Going onward, increases in Consumer Confidence could lead to )urchases that would form the basis of a meaningful economic ecovery. On the inflation front, price pressures appear to be ninimal as the low CPI rates on the graph to the left show. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) e% 7% 6% 5% -- 4% 3% 2% i i% 0% -1% -2% fhe US economic recession, which began last year, may be ending soon. For example, Q1 '2002 GDP was a large 5.8 %, >ut more than 1/2 of that gain was due to an increase in rosiness inventories. GDP strength usually comes from xmsumer spending as opposed to inventory re- stocking, which s only a temporary benefit. Additionally, Nonfarm Payroll yowth turned positive in April after registering negative growth or the previous eight months. Another encouraging sign is that sentiment in the Manufacturing sector has improved sharply as he ISM Production Management Index above indicates. Going onward, increases in Consumer Confidence could lead to )urchases that would form the basis of a meaningful economic ecovery. On the inflation front, price pressures appear to be ninimal as the low CPI rates on the graph to the left show. I CHAND. 1 1 11 Yield on the Two -Year Treasury Note April 2000 through April 2002 6.80% 6.30% 5.80% 5.30 4.80% 4.30% 3.80% 3.30 2.80% 2.30% 8 8 Yield Curves The 2 -year Note graph on the left shows the dramatic decline in yields over the past two years. As the economy started to exhibit signs of weakness last year, the Federal Reserve lowered the overnight rate to help stimulate the economy. Economic weakness was further exasperated by the tragic events of Sept. 11. Consequently, the Federal Reserve added more liquidity and lowered the overnight rate down to 1.75 %. More recently, however, signs of economic recovery have begun to emerge. 2 -year Note yields, consequently, have begun to move higher in anticipation of future Federal Reserve overnight rate increases. Over the past three months, the yields at most points along the yield curve have been unchanged or only slightly higher. With the exception of the 0.17% increase in the 30 -year yield, one could assume that yields were probably tame for each day of the 3 -month period. Actual observed yields, however, indicate that rates were volatile. For example, if we look at the last 12 weeks of the 2 -yr Note graph above, we can see that its' yield traded in a 0.82% range of 2.90% to 3.72 %. What would cause yields to be so volatile? Movement in Treasury yields reflects changes in economic prospects. As the economic data point to growth, investors start to believe that the Fed will raise rates to keep inflation from developing. Conversely, when the economic data appear weak, investors assume that the Fed will not raise rates, which causes yields to drift lower. April 30, 2002 and January 31, 2002 ' 6.00%- -- 5.50 % — 5.00% - I 4.50% - -- 4.00% 3.50% rE 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 4130/2002 1.50% ry'a y-t 4/30/2002 1/31/2002 Can e 3 Mo 6 Mo 1.75 1.89 1.75 0.00 1.89 2 Yr 3.23 3.15 0.08 5 Yr 4.41 4.36 0.05 10 Yr 5.10 5.03 0.06 30 Yr 5.60 5.43 0.17 The 2 -year Note graph on the left shows the dramatic decline in yields over the past two years. As the economy started to exhibit signs of weakness last year, the Federal Reserve lowered the overnight rate to help stimulate the economy. Economic weakness was further exasperated by the tragic events of Sept. 11. Consequently, the Federal Reserve added more liquidity and lowered the overnight rate down to 1.75 %. More recently, however, signs of economic recovery have begun to emerge. 2 -year Note yields, consequently, have begun to move higher in anticipation of future Federal Reserve overnight rate increases. Over the past three months, the yields at most points along the yield curve have been unchanged or only slightly higher. With the exception of the 0.17% increase in the 30 -year yield, one could assume that yields were probably tame for each day of the 3 -month period. Actual observed yields, however, indicate that rates were volatile. For example, if we look at the last 12 weeks of the 2 -yr Note graph above, we can see that its' yield traded in a 0.82% range of 2.90% to 3.72 %. What would cause yields to be so volatile? Movement in Treasury yields reflects changes in economic prospects. As the economic data point to growth, investors start to believe that the Fed will raise rates to keep inflation from developing. Conversely, when the economic data appear weak, investors assume that the Fed will not raise rates, which causes yields to drift lower. CHAND. I I I I I I I 1 C I I 1 PORTFOLIO INSIGHT CHAND. I 1 1 City of Newport Beach Investment Objectives ' The investment objectives of the City of Newport Beach are first, to provide safety of principal to ensure the preservation of capital in the overall portfolio; second, to provide adequate liquidity to meet all requirements which might be reasonably anticipated, and third, to earn a commensurate rate of return. I 1 Chandler Asset Management Performance Objective The performance objective of Newport Beach is to earn a return that equals or exceeds ' the return on an index of 1 -3 year Treasury notes. 1 I d 1 Strategy In order to achieve this objective, the portfolio invests in high quality money market instruments, short term government notes, and high quality corporate medium notes. City of Newport Beach I 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 CHAND COMPLIANCE WITH INVESTMENT POLICY City of Newport Beach April 30, 2002 Assets managed by Chandler Asset Management are in full compliance with State law and with the City's investment policy. Category Standard Comment Treasury/agency issues No Limit Complies Banker's Acceptances Al /P1; < =30 %; 180 days Complies Commercial Paper Al /P1; < =10% per issuer Complies Max. maturity< 270 days 25% maximum Complies Repurchase Agreements < =30 days Complies Rev. Repo Agreements < =30 days; < =10% Complies Negotiable CDs 30 %; Al /P1; 1 year; < =10% per issuer; US banks w/ $1 billion in assets Complies Time CDs Collateralized /insured Complies Medium Term Notes 30% overall; 25% max. > 2 years Complies Mortgage Pass Thrus 20% combined with asset - backed Complies Asset - backed securities AAA; < =5 years; 20% combined with mortgage ass -thrus Complies LAIF Not used by outside adviser. Complies OCIP; LA County Pool Not used by outside adviser. Complies Inverse floaters, range notes Prohibited Complies Interest only strips Prohibited Complies Zero interest accruals Prohibited Complies Maximum maturity 15 years Complies CHAND. I I i PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY I ' Over the previous four months we have maintained the portfolio duration very close to the benchmark duration to benefit from the very steep yield curve in this uncertain interest rate environment. We have done this by making moderate extension trades using agency securities. I ' City of Newport Beach t4/30/2002 12131/2001 ' Average Maturity (yrs) 1.82 1.85 Modified Duration 1.66 1.69 ' Average Book Yield 5.04% 5.19% Average Quality AAA AAA Total Book Value $22,426,353 $21,980,954 Total Market Value $23,304,497 $23,042,491 1 PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY I ' Over the previous four months we have maintained the portfolio duration very close to the benchmark duration to benefit from the very steep yield curve in this uncertain interest rate environment. We have done this by making moderate extension trades using agency securities. I ' City of Newport Beach ICHANDLE SECTOR DISTRIBUTION 1 April 30, 2002 1 1 r = Corporate Agency _ _ 21% 70% — Cash Equiv 1% Treasury ' 8% December 31, 2001 1 - - Coporate Agency _= 24 ' 68 % -__ - - Cash Equiv ' 0.3 Treasury 8% City of Newport Beach CHANDLER DURATION DISTRIBUTION ' April 30, 2002 vs. December 31, 2001 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 0.0 -0.25 0.25 -5.0 0.5 -1.0 1.0 -2.0 2.0 -3.0 3.0 -4.0 4.0 -5.0 5.0+ ■ 4/30/2002 = 12/31 /2001 0.0 -0.25 0.25 -5.0 0.5 -1.0 1.0 -2.0 2.0 -3.0 3.0 -4.0 4.0 -5.0 5.0+ 4/30/2002 1% 3% 33% 31% 20% 13% 0% 0% 12/31 /2001 7% 0% 19% 43% 17% 14% 0% 0% City of Newport Beach ICHANDLE ' INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE Periods Ending April 30, 2002 Total Rate of Return Annualized Since Inception ' 3/31/91 1 - - -- 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% -� ■ Portfolio 1 -3 yr Treasury 3 Month T -Bill Latest Annualized ' 3 Months 12 Months Since Inception Portfolio 0.90% 6.71% 6.54% 1 -3 yr Treasury 0.92% 6.29% 6.43% ' 3 Month T -Bill 0.44% 3.02% 4.86% City of Newport Beach ICHAND 1 I 11 I I I I I I� J 1 1 PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS 1 1 N 111 N M VI m ri r m O .4 ' W m 1 O r1 b O F W ❑ O m O 1 0 e1 01 P C ry b � 01 VI � m C O b O 10 1!1 � b N ..W m N m ' \ ❑ Q' C r m m i O i b T N N VI P m r C NI N m 1 N 1 P r m F � N N m N � 111 � r 1•l C N N m N m m 1!1 b i t 111 m m i N O r T VI O 1p � O NI x N N i t m VI r m N 10 i O 1!1 ' m f 0 ryN O U i T N m m 1 NI 1 b b O m r CI N 01 m � i„ W O u] i 111 N 1 r m 111 r m 111 10 r1 N zao a m P 'ry 0 Ip O VI ry b 1p r N r O N O ry ry O O „ m o m o m In m o m r In o m P P In o r 0 r W A a n o o n 0 � n a n n � ro Z� vii COi (O ry O O y O L O NC O O Spp1 O y O O [[--11 C � y W pp o y o d qq U pri' phi' o U o 1�i o O o ff o N o n U m b ❑ Q a M 4 m m •a L EN N 0 a O N F hi r-1 111 H r y N y O O y O O m O a M1� O S H k ofo •fl m .rl 'i r p N O N >+ 10 C. 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