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HomeMy WebLinkAbout01 - 4.7 - Population and HousingSection 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment 4.7 POPULATION. HOUSING. AND EMPLOYMENT 4.7.1 INTRODUCTION This section addresses the existing population, housing, and employment conditions in the City of Newport Beach (City), County of Orange (County) and region, as well as estimated population growth and trends related to future housing and employment anticipated in the City, County, and region, including the proposed Project. This analysis focuses on the Project's consistency with adopted plans addressing regional and local population, housing, and employment projections. The environmental effects of increased population, housing, and employment on factors such as traffic, air quality, and noise are addressed in their respective sections of this EIR. Cumulative impacts are addressed in Section 5.0 of this EIR. EWA0M 1C11JA_A Ati1WE94aI1ar The Project area's demographics are examined in the context of existing and projected population, housing, and employment for the City and the County as a whole. Demographic information used in this analysis has been gathered from several sources, including the U.S. Census Bureau; the California Employment Development Department; the Center for Demographic Research (CDR) at California State University, Fullerton; the California Department of Finance; and the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). The U.S. Census Bureau publishes demographic data gathered through the decennial census. This data provides a record of historic growth rates in the City of Newport Beach and in Orange County as a whole. The California Employment Development Department tracks labor market information, which was used to summarize historic employment trends for the years where the data are currently available, as noted in the applicable tables in this section. The California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit develops population and housing projections for counties and cities and updates these projections annually. Demographic data was also derived from the Orange County Projections (OCP), a long -range projection of Orange County's population, dwelling units, and employment. OCP -2006 contains the most recent population, housing, and employment estimates for each city in Orange County through the year 2035.1 The CDR developed the OCP -2006, which has been incorporated into SCAG's growth projection for the 2008 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA); the South Coast Air Quality Management District's (SCAQMD's) Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP); and the Orange County Transportation Authority's (OCTA's) transportation model. These projections are recognized by the agencies that sponsor the CDR as the uniform data set for use in local planning applications. Southern California Association of Governments SCAG is a Joint Powers Agency established under Sections 6502 et seq. of the California Government Code. SCAG is designated as a Council of Governments (COG), a Regional Transportation Planning Agency (RTPA), and a Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for the six - county region of Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Imperial Counties. The region encompasses a population exceeding 18 million persons in an area that encompasses more than 38,000 square miles. As the designated MPO, SCAG is OCP -2006 is the most recent version of the report. The updated version is anticipated to be available in Summer 2011. R:T,.j.WNewpart \J01&1D.ft EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4.7 -1 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment mandated by the federal government to research and create plans for transportation, growth management, hazardous waste management, and air quality that will effectively provide for the anticipated growth in the region. Among the leading activities SCAG undertakes are: • Maintaining a continuous, comprehensive, and coordinated planning process resulting in a Regional Transportation Plan and a Regional Transportation Improvement Program; • Developing demographic projections plus the integrated land use, housing, employment, transportation programs, measures, and strategies portions of the South Coast AQMP; • Serving as co -lead agency for air quality planning for the Central Coast and Southeast Desert Air Basin Districts; • Determining, pursuant to the federal Clean Air Act, projects', plans', and programs' conformity to the AQMP; • Reviewing environmental impact reports for projects having regional significance for their consistency with regional plans; • Serving as the authorized areawide waste treatment management planning agency pursuant to federal water pollution control statutes; and • Preparing the RHNA pursuant to State law. SCAG has developed a number of plans to achieve these regional objectives. The most applicable to the Project with respect to population, housing, and employment are the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) (October 2008) and the Compass Growth Vision Report (June 2004) and its associated RHNA (July 2007). Proposed projects are reviewed and an assessment is made about whether a project is consistent with or supports policies of these plans. Some of the policies within these plans are advisory in nature. These plans are discussed below. The Project's consistency with applicable SCAG policies is provided later in this section. 2008 SCAG Regional Comprehensive Plan SCAG has developed Southern California's RCP as a planning framework for the development and implementation of guidelines applied to both the public and private sectors. The RCP functions as a voluntary "toolbox" to assist local jurisdictions in making their General and Specific Plans and individual projects more sustainable (SCAG 2008c). SCAG's RCP is divided into nine chapters with each chapter focusing on the regional strategy that addresses the RCP's vision for a particular resource area. Each chapter also includes three levels of recommendations for the region: goals, outcomes, and an action plan that contains constrained policies (or near -term, feasible policies) and strategic initiatives (longer -term strategies). Although SCAG did not respond to the Notice of Preparation (NOP), RCP policies considered relevant to the proposed Project are addressed in this EIR because the Project is of regional significance in accordance with Section 15206 of the CEQA Guidelines. Compass Growth Vision The Compass Growth Vision Report presents the comprehensive Growth Vision for the six - county SCAG region and presents the achievements of the Compass process. It details the evolution of the draft's vision from the study of emerging growth trends to the effects of different growth patterns on transportation systems, land consumption, and other factors. R:\Proj.WNewpan \J015\ID.ft EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4 .7-2 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment The report concentrates on the physical aspects of regional growth (where people and jobs are located, the type and quantity of buildings that may be constructed, and how people and goods move in the region). The Growth Vision is driven by four key principles: • Mobility. Getting where we want to go; • Livability: Creating positive communities; • Prosperity: Long -term health for the region; and • Sustainability: Promoting efficient use of natural resources. To realize these principles on the ground, the Growth Vision encourages (1) focusing growth in existing and emerging centers and along major transportation corridors; (2) creating significant areas of mixed -use development and walkable communities; (3) targeting growth around existing and planned transit stations; and (4) preserving existing open space and stable residential areas. The Compass Blueprint 2% Strategy is a guideline for how and where SCAG's Growth Vision for Southern California's future can be implemented. It calls for changes to current land use and transportation trends that make up approximately two percent of the land area of the region: the 2% Strategy Opportunity Areas. SCAG's planning efforts and resources invested according to the 2% Strategy would help meet the region's goals of improved mobility, livability, prosperity, and sustainability for local neighborhoods and their residents (SCAG 2004a). The Project site is not located within a SCAG targeted 2% Strategy Opportunity Area (SCAG 2004b). Regional Housing Needs Assessment The RHNA is mandated by State Housing Law as part of the periodic process of updating local housing elements of the General Plan. The RHNA is a key tool for SCAG and its member governments to plan for growth within its six - county region. State law requires all regional councils of government, which includes SCAG, to determine existing and future housing needs for its region (California Government Code §65584.05[h]). SCAG is also required to determine the share of need allocated to each city and county within the SCAG region. The RHNA quantifies the need for housing within each jurisdiction during specified planning periods. The current planning period is January 1, 2006 to June 30, 2014. The Final RHNA target allocation was adopted by the SCAG Regional Council on July 12, 2007, and approved by the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) in September 2007 (SCAG 2010; Johnson 2010). California Coastal Act The California Coastal Act of 1976 (California Public Resources Code § §30000 et seq.) establishes policies guiding development and conservation along the California coast. Consistent with Section 30001 and the basic goals of Section 30001.5, and except as may be otherwise specifically noted in the Coastal Act, the policies of Section 30200 of the Coastal Act constitute the standards by which the adequacy of local coastal programs and the permissibility of proposed developments subject to these provisions are determined. The consistency of the Project with applicable California Coastal Act policies is provided in Table 4.7 -13 later in this section .2 For ease of reading, the policy tables are located at the end of this section. R:\Pr.J.tMNewpart \J015Rnrafi EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4.7 -3 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment City of Newport Beach General Plan Housing Element The Draft Housing Element (2011) of the City of Newport Beach General Plan is designed to facilitate attainment of the City's RHNA and to foster the availability of housing affordable to all income levels to the extent possible given Newport Beach's constraints. The Housing Element examines current housing needs; estimates future housing needs; and establishes goals, policies, and programs pertaining to those needs. The element includes goals and policies that are applicable to the proposed Project. The City's General Plan assumes a projected year 2030 buildout year. The General Plan Housing Element identifies several areas where land use changes may be anticipated over the next 20 years, including new residential opportunities. With the exception of the Newport Banning Ranch site, new residential development is expected to occur as infill housing and replacement of previously permitted retail and office development capacity. The key opportunity areas identified in the Housing Element are Newport Banning Ranch, Corona del Mar, West Newport Mesa, Mariner's Mile, Balboa Peninsula, Dover Dr./Westcliff Dr., Newport Center, the Balboa Peninsula, and Airport Area. As identified on Table 4.7 -1, these locations provide an opportunity for approximately 4,612 new dwelling units (du), inclusive of the Project site. The General Plan identifies up 1,375 du for the Newport Banning Ranch site if the property is developed consistent with the Residential Village General Plan land use designation. The City requires that projects with 50 or fewer units prepare an Affordable Housing Implementation Plan (AHIP) or pay an in -lieu fee. Projects of more than 50 units are required to prepare an AHIP that specifies how the development would meet the City's affordable housing goal. As a part of the City's Inclusionary Housing Program, it is the City's goal that an average of 15 percent of all new housing units be affordable to very low, low, or moderate income households .3 The consistency of the Project with applicable General Plan policies is provided in Table 4.7 -12 later in this section. 4.7.3 METHODOLOGY The potential population and employment associated with the proposed Project were estimated based on the number of proposed residential units, the published average household size for Newport Beach, and the types and amounts of employment - generating uses. To determine population - related impacts, the proposed number of dwelling units and the associated anticipated Project population were compared with State RHNA targets and the OCP -2006 population projections for the City and the County, respectively. The City's General Plan Housing Element provides a long -term blueprint for housing production goals, which are considered within the context of the local and regional trends. The City's General Plan assumes buildout in 2030. The Project's estimated employment generation was compared to the OCP -2006 projections for the City and County. Project impacts take into consideration population, housing, and employment projections for Newport Beach. a The draft AHIP for the proposed Project is on the City of Newport Beach website and is on file at the City of Newport Beach Community Development Department and can be reviewed during regular business hours. R:\Proj.tMNewpart \J015Rnraft EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 47-4 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -1 NEWPORT BEACH HOUSING ELEMENT SITES ANALYSIS AND INVENTORY SUMMARY R: \Projects \Newport \J015Nnrafi EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4.7 -5 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Realistic General Plan Zoning Dwelling Unit Areas Designation Designation Capacitya Density (du /ac) or Development Limit Vacant Banning Ranch RV and OS PC 1,375 Maximum development limit of 1,375 du. Corona del Mar RM RM 7 Development limit of 8 du permitted. San Miguel RM PC 4 Development limit of 10 du permitted. Infill /Mixed -Use 30 du /ac minimum and 50 du /ac maximum .° John Wayne MU -H2 PC 2,061 Development limit of 2,200 du permitted as Airport Area replacement of existing uses (550 du permitted as infill). Newport Center MU- PC 529 Development limit of 529 du permitted as infill. RHMand MU -W -1: Mixed -Use: FAR 1.0, with 0.5 for residential. Mariners' Mile MU -W1 and MU -W1 and 236 Multi - Family Residential: 12 du /ac (50% MU -H1 MU -MM of site). MU -MM: Mixed -Use: FAR 1.5, with 1.0 for residential. West Newport RM RM 132 18 du /ac. Mesa Dover Dr./ West cliff Dr. MU -H1 MU -DW 89 MU -DW: FAR 1.5, with 1.0 for residential Balboa Peninsula Area Lido Marina MU -W2 and MU -W2 and 70 MU -W2: FAR 1.5, with 0.8 for residential RM Village RM (20 /ac) (RM 2,178) (20 du /ac) MU- CV /15`" St.: Mixed -Use: FAR 1.5, with 1.0 for MU -H4 MU- CV /15`" St. residential Cannery Village MU -W2 and MU -W2 56 Multi - Family: 20.1 to 26.7 du /net acre MU -W2: Mixed -Use: FAR 1.25, with 0.75 for residential Balboa Village MU -V MU -V 14 MU -V: FAR 1.5, with 1.0 for residential McFadden MU -W2 MU -W2 39 MU -W2: FAR 1.25, with 0.75 for residential Square Total 4,612 du /ac: dwelling units per acre; FAR: floor area ratio; MU -H1 = Mixed -Use (MU) - Horizontal (H)1 MU -W1, MU -W2 = MU - Water (W) 1, 2 MU -V = MU- Vertical MU -1­12 = MU - Horizontal 2 MU -MM, MU -DW = MU - Mariners' Mile, RM = Multiple - Family Residential MU -H3 = MU - Horizontal 3 MU - Dover Westcliff RV = Residential Village MU -H4 = MU - Horizontal 4 MU- CV /15" St. = MU - Cannery OS = Open Space Village /15th St. PC - Planned Community a Capacities reflect potential net increase in dwelling units above existing uses. As explained in detail within the Sites Analysis and Inventory, realistic capacities were based on average densities of actual constructed, permitted, or proposed projects within the City and accurately reflect achievable housing units. For example, although mixed -use designations permit densities of up to 26.7 du /ac, realistic capacities were calculated using 16 du /ac, based on actual mixed -use projects constructed within the City. ° Pursuant to Section 65583.2 of the California Government Code, a minimum density of 30 du /ac shall be deemed appropriate to accommodate housing for lower- income households for urbanized areas. Source: Newport Beach 2011. R: \Projects \Newport \J015Nnrafi EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4.7 -5 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment The assessment of population, housing, and employment impacts is based on the assumption that all proposed 1,375 du would be constructed. The site's projected population is based on a rate of 2.19 persons per unit (Newport Beach 2006a). This average household size is based on an aggregate of all types of housing: single - family, multi - family, and other types. The Project proposes both single - family and multi - family housing. 4.7.4 EXISTING CONDITIONS The following is a discussion of historical, existing, and projected population, housing, and employment information relevant to the City. To ensure both a regional and local perspective, the most recently adopted OCP -2006 projections for the City, County, SCAG, and Regional Statistical Areas (RSA) are included. An RSA is an area viewed as an indicator of growth at the subregional level addressed in regional growth policies. Newport Beach is located in RSA F -39, which also includes the City of Costa Mesa and part of the City of Irvine. Existing and Projected Population SCAG Region As identified on Table 4.7 -2, in 2000, the population for the approximate 38,000- square -mile, 6- county SCAG region exceeded 16.5 million persons with the majority of the population located in Los Angeles County. Between 1980 and 1990, the population increased by 3,059,349 persons with an annual average increase of 305,935 persons (or 2.1 percent per year) within the SCAG region. Between 1990 and 2000, the population of the SCAG region increased by 1,875,168 (or 1.1 percent per year), which equates to an annual average of 187,517 persons. TABLE 4.7 -2 SCAG, ORANGE COUNTY, AND NEWPORT BEACH POPULATION: 1980 -2009 Area 1980 1990 2000 2005 2009 SCAG Region 11,581,483a 14,640,832a 16,516,000a N/A N/A Orange County 1,932,709' 2,410,5560 2,846,289° 3,044,980e 3,134,858' Newport Beach 62,5569 66,643° 70,032' 82,778- 86,145' N /A: not available SCAG 2007 ° U.S. Census Bureau 2008e U.S. Census Bureau 2008f ' U.S. Census Bureau 2008g DOF 2009 ' DOF 2010 9 Newport Beach 2006b. As identified in Table 4.7 -3, according to SCAG projections, population is projected to grow by an annual average of 147,489 persons between 2010 and 2035, or 3,687,226 persons (0.7 percent per year) in SCAG's 6- county region. R:\ProJ.WNewpart \J015\Inrafi EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4 .7-6 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -3 SCAG, ORANGE COUNTY, AND NEWPORT BEACH POPULATION PROJECTIONS: 2010 -2035 Area 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 SCAG Region' 17,236,274 18,080,048 18,886,172 19,621,177 20,297,627 20,923,500 Orange County 3,166,461' 3,451,7570 3,533,935° 3,586,2850 3,629,5400 3,653,9880 RSA F -39d 273,895 288,408 297,571 302,057 305,820 308,639 Newport Beach 86,738' 91,321° 93,195' 95,427' 96,892° 97,776° a SCAG 2007 ° DOF 2010 CDR 2009 CDR 2007d. Orange County Orange County's population has experienced a pattern of growth in recent history (Table 4.7 -2). Between 1980 and 1990, the County population increased by 477,847 persons (i.e., average of 47,785 persons, annually). Between 1990 and 2000, population increased by 435,733 persons (i.e., average of 43,573 persons annually). According to the Department of Finance, the County's population was 3,134,858 persons in 2009 (DOF 2010). Using this data, the County's population increased between 2000 and 2009 by 288,569 persons (i.e., average of 32,063 persons annually). According to OCP -2006 projections and as shown in Table 4.7 -3, the Orange County population is projected to grow by an annual average of 19,501 people between 2010 and 2035, or 487,527 total persons (CDR 2007). The population within RSA F -39 is projected to grow by an annual average of 1,390 people, or 34,744 total persons between 2010 and 2035. City of Newport Beach As with Orange County and the SCAG region, Newport Beach has also experienced population growth (Table 4.7 -2). Between 1980 and 1990, the City's population increased by 4,087 persons (i.e., average of 409 persons, annually). Between 1990 and 2000, population increased by 3,389 persons (i.e., average of 339 persons annually). According to the Department of Finance, the City's population was 86,145 persons in 2009 (DOF 2010). Using this data, the City's population increased between 2000 and 2009 by 16,113 persons (i.e., average of 1,790 persons annually). This increase in population was primarily due to the City's annexation of the Newport Coast and Newport Ridge areas in 2002. OCP -2006 projections indicate that Newport Beach's population will experience an average increase of 442 persons per year between 2010 and 2035, or 11,038 persons total (Table 4.7 -3) (CDR 2007). This represents approximately 32 percent of the projected population growth in RSA F -39 between 2010 and 2035. Based on a General Plan buildout year of 2030, the City's population is projected to be 96,892; this represents approximately 32 percent of the growth in RSA F -39 and approximately 2.7 percent of the growth in the County during this time period. Project Site Approximately 40 acres of the Project site are located within the incorporated boundaries of the City; the remainder of the Project site is in unincorporated Orange County within the City's Sphere of Influence. The Project proposes annexation to the City of those portions of the Project site currently under County jurisdiction. At the time of issuance of the Newport Banning Ranch R:\Proj.WNewpart \J015Nnrafi EIRW.] Pop- 090211.d.c 4 .7-7 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment Project's Notice of Preparation (NOP) and the release of this Draft EIR, the Project site contained no residences. Existing and Projected Housing SCAG Region As identified on Table 4.7 -4, the SCAG region had 5,722,035 du in 2000. Consistent with population growth, the SCAG region's dwelling unit count has increased. Housing growth increased by 392,404units for an annual average of 39,240 units from 1990 to 2000. As identified on Table 4.7 -5, according to SCAG projections, the dwelling unit total is projected to grow by an annual average of 18,106 units between 2010 and 2035, or a total of 452,672 du. TABLE 4.7-4 SCAG, ORANGE COUNTY, AND NEWPORT BEACH HOUSING: 1980 -2009 Area 1980 1990 2000 2005 2009 SCAG Region N/A 5,329,6312 5,722,035' N/A N/A Orange County (du) 721,514° 875,072` 969,484° 1,014,331e 1,035,491` Newport Beach (du) 31,1069 34,8619 37,5679 42,7232 43,477f N /A: not available; du: dwelling unit. 119,542 120,149 121,426 Newport Beach` a SCAG 2007 44,837 45,456 46,556 47,073 U.S. Census Bureau 2008e a SCAG 2007 ° CDR 2009 ° CDR 2007d DOF 2010. U.S. Census Bureau 2008f U.S. Census Bureau 2008g CDR 2o07d DOF 2009 9 Newport Beach 2006a. TABLE 4.7 -5 SCAG, ORANGE COUNTY, AND NEWPORT BEACH HOUSING PROJECTIONS: 2010 -2035 Area 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 SCAG Regiona 6,285,473° 5,755,434 6,053,194 6,303,647 6,534,919 6,738,145 County 1,073,751 1,106,607 1,122,905 1,136,564 1,144,314 1,151,587 RSA F-390 109,595 114,932 117,811 119,542 120,149 121,426 Newport Beach` 43,706 44,837 45,456 46,556 47,073 47,570 a SCAG 2007 ° CDR 2009 ° CDR 2007d DOF 2010. Orange County The County of Orange experienced housing growth between 2000 and 2009. However, the rate of growth has declined from a 0.9 percent annual increase between 2000 and 2005 to a 0.5 percent annual increase between 2005 and 2009. The number of dwelling units within the County increased by 153,558 units with an average annual increase of 15,356 units between 1980 and 1990 (Table 4.7 -4) (U.S. Census Bureau 2007). This increase was reduced between 1990 and 2000 to 94,412 units or 9,441 average annual units. Between 2000 and 2009, the housing stock increased by 66,007 units with an average of 7,334 units per year (DOF 2009). R:\ProJ.WNewpan \J015NOrafi EIRW.7 Pap- 090211.d.c 4 .7-8 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment As identified in Table 4.7 -5, according to the CDR, dwelling units within Orange County are projected to increase, on average, by 3,113 units per year between 2010 and 2035 for a total of 77,836 units (CDR 2007). Dwelling units within RSA F -39 are projected to increase, on average, by 473 units per year between 2010 and 2035 fora total of 11,831 units. City of Newport Beach As identified on Table 4.7 -4, between 1980 and 1990, the City's housing stock increased by 3,755 du (i.e., average of 376 units annually). Between 1990 and 2000, the City's housing increased by 2,706 units (i.e., annual average rate of 271 units). Between 2000 and 2009, the City's housing increased by 5,910 units (i.e., average of 657 units annually) primarily associated with the City's annexation of the Newport Coast and Newport Ridge areas in 2002. There are currently an estimated 43,477 du in the City (DOF 2009). According to the OCP -2006 (Table 4.7 -5), the City is projected to have an average annual increase of 155 units between 2010 and 2035, or 3,864 total units (CDR 2007d). This represents approximately 33 percent of the projected housing increase in RSA F -39. Based on a General Plan buildout year of 2030, the City is projected to have 47,073 du; this represents approximately 39 percent of the housing growth in RSA F -39 during this time period. In 2000, the City's housing stock represented approximately 3.8 percent of Orange County's total dwelling units (Table 4.7 -4). In 2025 and 2035, the City's share of dwelling units is projected to be approximately 4.1 percent of the County total (Table 4.7 -5). Table 4.7 -6 shows the composition of the housing stock in the City for 2000 and 2009. There were no residential dwelling units on the Project site at the time of the 2000 Census, nor are there any at the present time. TABLE 4.7 -6 CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH HOUSING STOCK COMPOSITION Unit Type 2000 2009 1 unit, detached 16,095 19,441 1 unit, attached 6,685 7,166 2 to 4 units 5,351 5,587 5 plus units 8,294 10,420 Mobile Home 863 863 Total 37,288 43,477 Source: DOF 2009 (2000 housing counts are benchmarked to Census 2000). Vacancy Rates As reported by the Department of Finance, the vacancy rate is a measure of the availability of housing in a community. It also demonstrates how well the types of units available actually meet the market demand. A low vacancy rate suggests that households may have difficulty finding housing within their price range; a high supply of vacant units may indicate either the existence of a high number of desired units, or an oversupply of units. The vacancy rate for housing in the City, as reported by the 2000 U.S. Census Bureau, was 11.3 percent in 2000. In 2009, the average vacancy rate was 10.9 percent with a reported vacancy rate of 7.5 percent for rental units°, which is the second highest vacancy rate in the County behind the City of Laguna Beach. 4 Ownership vacancy rate data is not available for 2009. R:\Pr.J.tMNewpart \J015Nnrafi EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4 .7-9 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment In 2008, the City's reported vacancy rate was 7.3 percent for rental units and 1.8 percent of sales units. The countywide 2009 vacancy rate is approximately 3 percent. The City has found that the discrepancy between overall vacancy rates and vacancy rates among available units may be due to the large number of seasonal units and second homes in Newport Beach. The City's General plan states, "According to the 2000 U.S. Census, 1,994 of 4,217 vacant units were identified as 'seasonal use "' (Newport Beach 2006a). RHNA For RHNA purposes, the HCD has defined "future needs" as the number of additional dwelling units by income level that need to be created, or the share of the region's housing needs that have been allocated to a community. SCAG calculates future housing needs based upon their household growth projection plus a certain amount of units needed to account for an appropriate level of vacancies and the replacement of units that are normally lost to conversion or demolition. The HCD categorizes households into the following five income groups based on County Area Median Incomes (AMI): • Extremely Low Income — 0 to 30 percent of the AMI. • Very Low Income — 31 to 50 percent of the AMI. • Low Income — 51 to 80 percent of the AMI. • Moderate Income — 81 to 120 percent of the AMI. • Above Moderate Income — above 120 percent of the AMI. Extremely low, very low, and low income groups combined are referred to as "lower income groups ". Household income is adjusted for household size. The City's 2000 Census income distribution using the above income thresholds was as follows: • Extremely Low Income — 7 percent. • Very Low Income — 6 percent. • Low Income — 9 percent. • Moderate and Above Moderate Income— 78 percent. Table 4.7 -7 identifies the adopted RHNA for the 2006 -2014 period for the SCAG region, Orange County (unincorporated County and cities), and Newport Beach. The City's total RHNA allocation through 2014 is 1,784 du. Since the RHNA uses January 1, 2006, as the baseline for growth projections for the Housing Element planning period of 2008 -2014, jurisdictions may count any new units built or issued certificates of occupancy since January 1, 2006, toward meeting their RHNA allocations. Since 2006, 270 du (15 percent) have been built in the City. These units were all market -rate, Above Moderate Income units. R:\Projects\Newpart \J015\IOrafi EIRWY Pap- 090211 .doc 4.7 -10 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -7 REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION PLAN: FROM 2006 TO 2014 Existing and Projected Employment SCAG Region As identified on Table 4.7 -8, the SCAG region had 7,557,600 jobs in 2000. Between 1980 and 1990, jobs increased by 1,225,300 for an annual average of 122,530 jobs. Job growth increased at a slightly greater rate from 1990 to 2000, adding 1,202,800 total jobs (15.9 percent) or an average of 120,280 jobs (1.6 percent) annually. As identified on Table 4.7 -9, according to SCAG projections, regional employment is projected to grow by an annual average rate of 59,051 jobs between 2010 and 2035, or 1,476,278 total positions. TABLE 4.7 -8 SCAG, ORANGE COUNTY, AND CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH EMPLOYMENT: 1980 -2009 Area SCAG Region Orange County Newport Beach RHNA 2009 RHNA 5,129,500a RHNA 7,557,600e N/A Income Group Allocation Percentage Allocation Percentage Allocation Percentage Very Low Incomea 165,457 23.7% 17,733 21.5% 392 22.0% Low Income 113,649 16.2% 14,566 17.7% 322 18.0% Moderate Income` 126,715 18.1% 16,380 19.9% 362 20.3% Above Moderate Income 293,547 42.0% 33,653 40.9% 708 39.7% Total 699,368 100.0% 82,332 100.0% 1,784 units 100.0% a 0 -50% of Area Median Family Income (MFI). b 51 -80% of MFI. 81 -120% of MFI Greater than 120% of MFI Source: SCAG 2007. Existing and Projected Employment SCAG Region As identified on Table 4.7 -8, the SCAG region had 7,557,600 jobs in 2000. Between 1980 and 1990, jobs increased by 1,225,300 for an annual average of 122,530 jobs. Job growth increased at a slightly greater rate from 1990 to 2000, adding 1,202,800 total jobs (15.9 percent) or an average of 120,280 jobs (1.6 percent) annually. As identified on Table 4.7 -9, according to SCAG projections, regional employment is projected to grow by an annual average rate of 59,051 jobs between 2010 and 2035, or 1,476,278 total positions. TABLE 4.7 -8 SCAG, ORANGE COUNTY, AND CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH EMPLOYMENT: 1980 -2009 Area 1980 1990 2000 2005 2009 SCAG Region 5,129,500a 6,354,800a 7,557,600e N/A N/A Orange County 843,800a 1,306,200° 1,428,400° 1,534,400° 1,483,600° Newport Beach 55,394° N/A N/A 76,439° N/A NIA: not available e SCAG 2007 b EDD 2009 OCP 86/87 (from G. Ramirez, Newport Beach) CDR 2007d EDD 2010 R:\Proj.WNewpan \J015\IDrafi EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -11 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -9 SCAG, ORANGE COUNTY, AND NEWPORT BEACH EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 2010 -2035 Orange County Between 1980 and 1990, the County added 462,400 jobs or an average of 46,240 jobs (3.5 percent) annually (SCAG 2007). This rate of increase declined from 1990 to 2000 when the County added 122,200 jobs (8.5 percent) or an average of 12,220 jobs (0.9 percent) annually (SCAG 2007). Between 2000 and 2009, employment increased by an average of 6,133 jobs (0.4 percent) annually over the 9 -year time period (Table 4.7 -8) (SCAG 2007; EDD 2009). OCP -2006 projects that the County will continue this lower rate of growth between 2010 and 2035; employment is projected to increase by an average of 9,069 jobs (0.5 percent) per year, or 226,734 total jobs (Table 4.7 -9) (CDR 2007). The number of jobs in RSA F -39 is projected to increase by an average of 1,266 jobs (0.5 percent) per year, or 31,649 total jobs (11.5 percent) for this time period (CDR 2007). City of Newport Beach In Newport Beach, the City added 21,045 jobs (27.5 percent) between 1980 and 2005, or an annual average of 842 jobs (1.1 percent) (OCP 2006). OCP -2006 projects that the City will have modest job growth at a rate of 66 jobs (0.08 percent) annually, or 1,660 total jobs (Table 4.7 -9) between 2010 and 2035 (CDR 2007). OCP -2006 projects that the City will have a growth rate of 1,047 jobs between 2010 and 2025 (3.9 percent annually). Based on a General Plan buildout year of 2030, the City is projected to have 78,824 total jobs; this represents approximately 29 percent of RSA F -39 and approximately 4.0 percent of the County by 2030. Project Site The Project site is an active oilfield. The estimated number of employees associated with the Applicant's oil operations, including part-time employees, is 19 (Aera Energy 2009). The City's contractor has two employees for the facility. Jobs to Housing Balance SCAG states that "a balance between jobs and housing in a metropolitan region can be defined as a provision of an adequate supply of housing to house workers employed in a defined area (i.e., community or subregion). Alternatively, a jobs /housing balance can be defined as an adequate provision of employment in a defined area that generates enough local workers to fill the housing supply" (SCAG 2001). Jobs and housing are considered in balance when a subregion has enough employment opportunities for most people who live there and enough housing opportunities for most of the people who work there. The jobs /housing balance is one R:T,.j.WNewpart \J01&1D.ft EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4 .7-12 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 SCAG Region' 7,556,100° 7,913,877 8,217,254 8,501,300 8,778,375 9,032,378 County° 1,755,167 1,837,771 1,897,352 1,933,058 1,960,633 1,981,901 RSA F -39b 242,867 249,610 256,014 261,305 267,448 274,516 Newport Beach` 77,319 77,940 78,198 78,366 78,824 78,979 SCAG 2007 CDR2009 CDR 2007d EDD 2010, Orange County Between 1980 and 1990, the County added 462,400 jobs or an average of 46,240 jobs (3.5 percent) annually (SCAG 2007). This rate of increase declined from 1990 to 2000 when the County added 122,200 jobs (8.5 percent) or an average of 12,220 jobs (0.9 percent) annually (SCAG 2007). Between 2000 and 2009, employment increased by an average of 6,133 jobs (0.4 percent) annually over the 9 -year time period (Table 4.7 -8) (SCAG 2007; EDD 2009). OCP -2006 projects that the County will continue this lower rate of growth between 2010 and 2035; employment is projected to increase by an average of 9,069 jobs (0.5 percent) per year, or 226,734 total jobs (Table 4.7 -9) (CDR 2007). The number of jobs in RSA F -39 is projected to increase by an average of 1,266 jobs (0.5 percent) per year, or 31,649 total jobs (11.5 percent) for this time period (CDR 2007). City of Newport Beach In Newport Beach, the City added 21,045 jobs (27.5 percent) between 1980 and 2005, or an annual average of 842 jobs (1.1 percent) (OCP 2006). OCP -2006 projects that the City will have modest job growth at a rate of 66 jobs (0.08 percent) annually, or 1,660 total jobs (Table 4.7 -9) between 2010 and 2035 (CDR 2007). OCP -2006 projects that the City will have a growth rate of 1,047 jobs between 2010 and 2025 (3.9 percent annually). Based on a General Plan buildout year of 2030, the City is projected to have 78,824 total jobs; this represents approximately 29 percent of RSA F -39 and approximately 4.0 percent of the County by 2030. Project Site The Project site is an active oilfield. The estimated number of employees associated with the Applicant's oil operations, including part-time employees, is 19 (Aera Energy 2009). The City's contractor has two employees for the facility. Jobs to Housing Balance SCAG states that "a balance between jobs and housing in a metropolitan region can be defined as a provision of an adequate supply of housing to house workers employed in a defined area (i.e., community or subregion). Alternatively, a jobs /housing balance can be defined as an adequate provision of employment in a defined area that generates enough local workers to fill the housing supply" (SCAG 2001). Jobs and housing are considered in balance when a subregion has enough employment opportunities for most people who live there and enough housing opportunities for most of the people who work there. The jobs /housing balance is one R:T,.j.WNewpart \J01&1D.ft EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4 .7-12 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment indicator of a project's effect on growth and quality of life in a project area. SCAG uses the jobs /housing ratio to assess the relationship between housing and employment growth. In 2001, the regional average ratio of jobs to households was 1.275 jobs per household (a "household" is defined as an occupied dwelling unit) (SCAG 2001). By 2025, the SCAG region's jobs /housing ratio is projected to be 1.33 jobs per household (SCAG 2001). SCAG refers to communities with more than the average of 1.5 jobs per household as "jobs- rich ". Jobs -rich areas are located in the highly urbanized areas in the western portion of the region, primarily in southern and western Los Angeles County, and in central and northern Orange County. Table 4.7 -10 identifies the jobs per household ratio for both the County and the City between 2005 and 2035. Because future development on the Newport Banning Ranch site is assumed in the City's General Plan development projections, the information in this table includes the proposed Project as the City's assumed employment projections on the site. As shown in Table 4.7 -10, the County's jobs /housing ratio in 2005 was 1.51 and is projected to be 1.77 in 2035 while the City's jobs /housing ratio in 2005 was 1.79 and is projected to be 1.67 in 2030 (General Plan buildout) and 1.66 in 2035. Both the County and the City are currently and are expected to remain "jobs- rich ". TABLE 4.7 -10 ORANGE COUNTY AND NEWPORT BEACH: JOBS TO HOUSING RATIOS Orange County 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Population 3,059,950 3,166,461° 3,451,759` 3,533,956` 3,586,291` 3,629,538` 3,653,988` Household (du) 1,014,331a 1,039,2010 1,071,8100 1,088,375° 1,102,370° 1,110,659° 1,118,490° Employment 1,534,400 1,755,167 1,837,771 1,897,352 1,933,058 1,960,633 1,981,901 Jobs /Housing Ratio 1.51 1.69 1.71 1.74 1.75 1.77 1.77 Newport Beach 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Population 82,778a 86,738b 91,321 93,195 95,427 96,892 97,766 Household (du) 42,723 43,706 44,837 45,456 46,556 47,073 47,570 Employment 76,439 77,319 77,940 78,198 78,366 78,824 78,979 Jobs /Housing Ratio 1.79 1.77 1.74 1.72 1.68 1.67 1.66 du: dwelling units Note: Greater than the average of 1.5 jobs per household is "jobs- rich ". DOF 2009 DOF 2010 California Employment Development Department (EDD) 2009 Source for all other data: CDR 2007. 4.7.5 PROJECT DESIGN FEATURES AND STANDARD CONDITIONS Protect Design Features PDF 4.7 -1 The Master Development Plan includes a range of housing types to meet the housing needs of a variety of economic segments of the community to be designed to appeal to different age groups and lifestyles. s Rather than using a typical ratio ( #: #) where the number of jobs is listed first, followed by the number of dwelling units, SCAG divides the number of jobs by the number of dwelling units, resulting in a percentage that is expressed as a decimal. R:\Proj.WNewpart \J015Nnrafi EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4.7 -13 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment Standard Conditions and Requirements SC 4.7 -1 Projects of 50 or fewer units have the option of preparing an Affordable Housing Implementation Plan (AHIP) or paying an in -lieu fee. Projects of more than 50 units are required to prepare an AHIP that specifies how the development will meet the City's affordable housing goal. 4.7.6 THRESHOLDS OF SIGNIFICANCE The following significance criteria are from the City of Newport Beach Environmental Checklist. A significant impact related to population, housing, and employment would occur if the Project would: Threshold 4.7 -1 Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposed new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure). Threshold 4.7 -2 Conflict with any applicable plan, policy, or regulation of an agency with jurisdiction over the project (including, but not limited to the general plan, specific plan, local coastal program, or zoning ordinance) adopted for the purpose of avoiding or mitigating an environmental effect. As previously discussed in Section 1.6.1, Effects Found Not to be Significant, the City has determined that the proposed Project would not have a significant impact for the following thresholds because the Project site does not contain any existing residences. As such, no existing housing would be removed from the site and no persons would be displaced. Would the project displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? Would the project displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? 4.7.7 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Threshold 4.7 -1 Would the project induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by proposed new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure)? The City of Newport Beach General Plan designates the Project site as Open Space /Residential Village (OS /RV). The OS /RV land use designation provides land use policy for both the primary use (Open Space) and an alternative use (Residential Village) on the Project site. The General Plan identifies the maximum intensity of development allowed on the property to include 1,375 du, 75,000 square feet (sf) of retail commercial uses oriented to serve the needs of local and nearby residents, and 75 resort inn rooms in a small boutique hotel or other type of overnight visitor accommodation. The proposed Project's land uses are consistent with the alternative use land use designation (i.e., Residential Village). Population and employment projections were developed using factors from CDR and information provided by the City and Applicant. As previously noted, this analysis uses a City generation factor of 2.19 persons per dwelling unit. Employment projections were based on the R:\Proj.WNewpan \J01&1D.ft EIRW.] Pop- 090211.d.c 4 .7-14 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment following generation factors provided by the Applicant and approved for use in this EIR by the City: • 1 job per 303 sf of retail uses. • 1 job per 707 sf of resort inn room, lobby, conference area, or business center uses. • 1 job per 303 sf of restaurant, gift shop, or fitness area uses. Population The projected City population at General Plan buildout (year 2030) would be 96,892. OCP -2006 projections indicate that the City's population could experience an average increase of 441 people per year between 2010 and 2035, or 11,038 total persons. Assuming 2.19 persons per dwelling unit, the Project with 1,375 residential units has the potential to generate 3,012 new residents. The Applicant has projected residential occupancy commencing in 2016 with buildout in 2024. As such, the proposed Project at buildout would represent approximately 54 percent of the City's growth projections at General Plan buildout in 2030 occurring between 2015 and 2030. When considered in a County context, the proposed Project would represent approximately 1.5 percent of Orange County's projected population increase between 2010 and 2035. Housing The projected number of total dwelling units at General Plan buildout would be 47,073 du. The projection for new dwelling units in the City between 2010 and 2025 is 2,850 du. As previously discussed in this section, the City is projected to have an average annual increase of 190 du between 2010 and 2025 and 155 du between 2010 and 2035 (CDR 2007). As set forth in Section 3.0, Project Description, the proposed Project is expected to be phased with completion of residential development anticipated by 2023. The proposed Project's 1,375 units represent approximately 36 percent of the City's total new housing between 2010 and 2035 as projected by the CDR. The Project represents approximately 48 percent of the City's total new units as projected by the City's General Plan by 2025 (between 2010 and 2025). The draft Newport Banning Ranch AHIP proposes the construction of a minimum of 50 percent of the required affordable housing on the Project site. The remaining affordable housing obligation would be met through the payment of in -lieu fees; the construction of off -site affordable housing including the rehabilitation of existing off -site housing that would contribute to meeting the City's RHNA requirements; and /or land dedication. Should the Project be approved with 1,375 du, the Project would provide the following number of Very Low Income, Low Income, or Moderate Income housing units. The Applicant can also provide a combination of the following income category housing units rather than a single income group. • Very Low Income: 5 percent of the total units (69 units); • Low Income: 10 percent of the total units (138 units); • Moderate Income: 15 percent of the total units (206 units) Because no dwelling units are anticipated to be occupied until 2016, the proposed affordable housing units would not count toward the City achieving its SCAG 2014 RHNA housing construction target. However, it is anticipated that the Project site would have been rezoned prior to that timeframe, which would demonstrate that the City has an available site on the Newport Banning Ranch property for the inclusion in the City's affordable housing sites R:T,.j.WNewpan \J015ND.ft EIRW.] Pop- 090211.d.c 4 .7-15 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment inventory. Additionally, the Project's obligation to provide off -site affordable housing (in -lieu fees, rehabilitation, land dedication, or a combination thereof) would assist the City in meeting its RHNA target for the subsequent planning period of January 1, 2011 to September 30, 2021. Employment Both the City contractor's 2 oilfield employees and the Applicant's 19 oilfield employees are expected to be retained to oversee ongoing oil operations within the consolidated oilfield areas upon implementation of the proposed Project. The proposed Project is anticipated to create 422 new employment opportunities: 247 jobs associated with the proposed retail uses and 175 jobs associated with the resort inn; it is anticipated that this would include both full -time and part-time employment positions with varying salaries including minimum wage positions. OCP -2006 projections anticipate that the City would have an average annual increase of 70 jobs between 2010 and 2025 (1,047 total jobs) and 67 jobs between 2010 and 2035 (1,660 total jobs). The Project is projected to add 422 jobs to the City by 2023. The 422 jobs represent approximately 40 percent of the City's total projected increase in employment between 2010 and 2025 and 25 percent between 2010 and 2035. The Project represents approximately 0.002 percent of the County's total employment through 2035. Jobs to Housing Balance In addition to the absolute numbers analyzed in the previous subsections, jobs /housing balance is another indicator of a project's effect on growth and quality of life. The County's jobs /housing ratio in 2005 was 1.51 and is projected to be 1.77 in 2035, while the City's jobs /housing ratio in 2005 was 1.79 and is projected to be 1.68 in 2025 and 1.66 in 2035. Both the County and the City are currently and are expected to remain "jobs- rich ". The Project would provide housing and employment, and would benefit the overall City and subregional jobs /housing ratio. The Project has a jobs /housing ratio of 0.31, because an estimated 422 new jobs and 1,375 residential units would be added. This results in greater benefits for balancing jobs and housing opportunities in the City and the County. Over time, the County of Orange is projected to become slightly more jobs -rich and the City is projected to become slightly less jobs -rich than it is today as a result of economic and demographic forces. The proposed Project would not change this overall projection. As discussed previously, the proposed Project lies in RSA F -39. The jobs /housing ratio for RSA F -39 is projected at 2.2 in 2010, 2.2 in 2025, and 2.3 in 2035. These ratios reflect the fact that RSA F -39 contains large concentrations of employment areas in the Cities of Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, and Irvine. Impact Conclusion In summary, the proposed Project's population, housing, and employment growth are within the overall OCP -2006 projections for Orange County and RSA F -39. As previously identified in Table 4.7 -3, based on existing growth projections for Newport Beach, it is projected that the City's population will reach 96,892 by 2030 (General Plan buildout) and 97,776 persons by 2035 (representing an increase of 8,689 persons between 2010 and 2025 and 11,038 persons between 2010 and 2035). The Project is expected to directly generate 3,012 residents, which would account for approximately 34 percent of the projected growth in the City by 2025 and approximately 27 percent by 2035. The General Plan Housing Element identifies several areas for future housing opportunities. The General Plan designates these areas provide an opportunity for approximately 4,612 new du. The General Plan identifies 1,375 du for the Newport Banning Ranch site, which is R:T,.j.WNewpart \J01&1D.ft EIRW.7 Pop- 090211.d.c 4.7 -16 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment approximately 29 percent of the total number of new dwelling units identified in the General Plan for these collective areas. The Project would also provide new jobs that would result from development of the proposed neighborhood commercial and resort inn uses. It is assumed that the housing demand generated by these new jobs would be met by (1) existing units in the City; (2) projected future units in the City; (3) the proposed 1,375 residential units, including affordable housing, associated with the Project; and (4) dwelling units located elsewhere in Orange County and the larger SCAG region. Given the mobility of workers within the SCAG region, it is not possible to accurately estimate the housing demand jobs would generate in other parts of the region. Therefore, this EIR does not speculate about the locations or numbers of houses in those locations. Orange County is expected to add 77,836 new households between 2010 and 2035 and 3,864 units would be added in the City of Newport Beach during the same time period. Although the expected employment generation from the Project would represent approximately 25 percent of the employment generation in the City by 2035, it is expected that the demand for new housing generated from Project employees (422 jobs) could be accommodated by the projected housing growth. The proposed Project would also result in a temporary increase in job creation during the development phases of the Project (e.g., construction jobs). These jobs are typically filled by existing residents of the region and do not induce substantial housing demand. Therefore the potential growth associated with Project - generated jobs (construction and operation) would not be significant. While no significant Project impacts have been identified, PDF 4.7 -1 and SC 4.7 -1 are applicable to the Project. PDF 4.7 -1 requires the Project to include a range of housing types to meet the housing needs of a variety of economic segments of the community. SC 4.7 -1 requires the Project to prepare an AHIP that specifies how the Project will meet the City's affordable housing goal. Impact Summary: Less Than Significant. PDF 4.7 -1 and SC 4.7 -1 are applicable. The Project would provide up to 1,375 residential units including up to 206 affordable units, resulting in a population increase of 3,012 persons. While the Project would result in population growth in the area through the construction of new residences and employment opportunities, the Project would not exceed the growth currently projected for the Project site or exceed regional projections. Based on the City's significance criteria set forth in this EIR, the increase in population would be less than significant. Threshold 4.7 -2 Would the project conflict with any applicable plan, policy, or regulation of an agency with jurisdiction over the project (including, but not limited to the general plan, specific plan, local coastal program, or zoning ordinance) adopted for the purpose of avoiding or mitigating an environmental effect? Tables 4.7 -11 through 4.7 -13 evaluate the consistency of the proposed Project with the applicable goals and policies of SCAG, the City's General Plan, and the Coastal Act, respectively. Impact Summary: No Impact. As identified in Tables 4.7 -11 through 4.7 -13, the proposed Project would not conflict with any applicable goals or policies of SCAG, the City of Newport Beach General Plan, or the Coastal Act related to population, housing, and employment. R:\Proj.tMNewpan \J015\ID.ft EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -17 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment 4.7.8 MITIGATION PROGRAM Project Design Features PDF 4.7 -1 requires that the Project include a range of housing types at different economic levels. Standard Conditions and Requirements SC 4.7 -1 requires that an AHIP be prepared for the Project. Mitigation Measures No mitigation is required. 4.7.9 LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE AFTER MITIGATION The proposed Project's increase in population, housing, and employment would be within regional and City projections. No significant impacts would occur. R �ProjectsWewportU(M&loren EIR\4.7 Pop- 090211.aoe 4.7 -18 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -11 SCAG REGIONAL POLICY CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS Relevant Principles and Goals Consistency Analysis Compass Blueprint Principles and Goals Principle 3: Enable prosperity for all people. The Project is consistent with this principle. The GV P3.1 Provide, in each community, a variety of proposed Project would contribute to balanced housing, housing types to meet the housing needs of all population, and employment growth on a Citywide basis. income levels. Although the Project would be housing -rich due to the GV P3.2 Support educational opportunities that provision of 1,375 du and creation of 422 jobs, the promote balanced growth. Project would provide housing opportunities for inn, active and passive recreational, and open space employees throughout the City of Newport Beach, a City GV P3.3 Ensure environmental justice regardless of that is projected to continue to be jobs -rich in the future. race, ethnicity, or income class. Additionally, the Project is consistent with this principle GV P3.4 Support local and state fiscal policies that because it would provide up to 1,375 du, including encourage balanced growth. single - family, multi - family, and affordable housing units. GV P3.5 Encourage civic engagement. Please also refer to Section 4.1, Land Use and Related Implement a conservative growth strategy that enhances Planning Programs. TABLE 4.7 -12 CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS City of Newport Beach General Plan Relevant Goals, Policies, and Programs Consistency Analysis Land Use Element Land Use Element Goal LU 1 A unique residential community with diverse coastal and As addressed in Section 4.1, Land Use and Related upland neighborhoods, which values its colorful past, Planning Programs, the Project is consistent with the high quality of life, and community bonds, and balances goal. The proposed Project would allow for the the needs of residents, businesses, and visitors through development of residential, retail, visitor - serving resort the recognition that Newport Beach is primarily a inn, active and passive recreational, and open space residential community. uses consistent with the alternative use General Plan land use designation (Residential Village) for the Project site (the primary General Plan designation is Open Space). Policies LU Policy 1.4: Growth Management As addressed in Section 4.1, Land Use and Related Implement a conservative growth strategy that enhances Planning Programs, the Project is consistent with this the quality of life of residents and balances the needs of policy. Please refer to the response to General Plan LU all constituencies with the preservation of open space Goal 1. As proposed, the Project would retain and natural resources. approximately 252 acres (63 %) of the site as open space and would provide approximately 51.4 gross acres for parks including a 26.8- gross -acre (21.7 -net acre) Community Park. The General Plan Housing Element identifies 5 locations— Newport Banning Ranch, Airport Area, Newport Center, Mariners' Mile, and the Balboa Peninsula —as key sites for future housing opportunities. The General Plan designates these areas with the potential for development of approximately 4,612 new du. The General Plan identifies 1,375 du for the Newport Banning Ranch site, which is approximately 29% of the total number of new dwelling units identified in the General Plan for these collective areas. The General Plan identifies the maximum intensity of development allowed on the Newport Banning Ranch site to include up to 1,375 du, 75,000 sf of retail commercial uses oriented to serve the needs of local and nearby residents, and 75 resort inn rooms in a small R:\Proj.WNewpan \J015\ID.ft EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -19 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -12 (Continued) CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS City of Newport Beach General Plan Relevant Goals, Policies, and Proqrams Consistency Analysis LU Policy 1.5: Economic Health Encourage a local economy that provides adequate commercial, office, industrial, and marine - oriented opportunities that provide employment and revenue to support high - quality community services. boutique hotel or other type of overnight visitor accommodation. The Project is consistent with the growth projected for the property. The Project is consistent with this policy. SCAG refers to communities with more than the average of 1.5 jobs per household as "jobs- rich ". As such, the City of Newport Beach is considered a "jobs rich" community. The Project proposes to provide the maximum amount of commercial and visitor - serving uses authorized under the General Plan Residential Village designation for the site. The Project is anticipated to create approximately 422 jobs associated with commercial uses and the resort inn. II Land Use Element Goal LU 2 II A living, active, and diverse environment that complements all lifestyles and enhances neighborhoods, without compromising the valued resources that make Newport Beach unique. It contains a diversity of uses that support the needs of residents, sustain and enhance the economy, provide job opportunities, serve visitors that enjoy the City's diverse recreational amenities, and protect its important environmental settinq, resources, and quality of life. Policies LU Policy 2.2: Sustainable and Complete Community Emphasize the development of uses that enable Newport Beach to continue as a self- sustaining community and minimize the need for residents to travel outside of the community for retail, goods and services, and employment. LU Policy 2.3: Range of Residential Choices Provide opportunities for the development of residential units that respond to community and regional needs in terms of density, size, location, and cost. Implement goals, policies, programs, and objectives identified within the City's Housing Element. The Project is consistent with the goal. Please refer to the response to General Plan LU Policy 1.4. (Please also refer to Section 4.1, Land Use and Related Planning Programs.) The Project is consistent with this policy. The proposed Project would allow for the development of a mix of residential, retail, visitor - serving resort inn, active and passive recreation, and open space uses on the Project site. Included in the Project is up to 75,000 sf of community retail uses integrated into the Urban Colony (mix of retail and residential) area of the site, which is intended to provide local convenient goods and services to the residents of and visitors to the Project site and nearby residential areas. While parking would be provided for the retail uses, the Project includes pedestrian and bicycle trails throughout the Project site with access to the retail area. (Please also refer to Section 4.1, Land Use and Related Planning Programs.) The Project is consistent with this policy. The Project proposes development of a variety of housing types, including low and medium density housing, affordable housing units, and housing associated with mixed -use development. These housing types would range in size and cost to accommodate a variety of future residents. As addressed in this EIR section, the City requires that projects with more than 50 units prepare an AHIP that specifies how the development would meet the City's affordable housing goal. As a part of the City's Inclusionary Housing Program, it is the City's goal that an average of 15% of all new housing units be affordable to very low, low, or moderate income households. The Project would provide a minimum of 50% of its affordable housing requirement on the Project site. The remaining affordable housing obligation would be met through the payment of in -lieu fees, the R:\Pr.J.tMNewpan \J015\IOrafi EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -20 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -12 (Continued) CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS City of Newport Beach General Plan Relevant Goals, Policies, and Proqrams Consistency Analysis construction of off -site affordable housing including the rehabilitation of existing off -site housing. II Land Use Element Goal LU 6.2 II Residential neighborhoods that contain a diversity of housing types and supporting uses to meet the needs of Newport Beach's residents and are designed to sustain livability and a high quality of life. Policies LU Policy 6.2.1: Residential Supply Accommodate a diversity of residential units that meets the needs of Newport Beach's population and fair share of regional needs in accordance with the Land Use Plan's designations, applicable density standards, design and development policies, and the adopted Housing Element. As previously addressed in Section 4.1, Land Use and Related Planning Programs, the Project is consistent with this goal. The Project proposes development of a variety of housing types, including low and medium density housing, affordable housing units, and housing associated with mixed -use development. These housing types would range in size and cost to accommodate a variety of future residents. The proposed development is organized into four Villages and Colonies: the South and North Family Villages west of Bluff Road; the Resort Colony west of South Bluff Road; and the Urban Colony east of Bluff Road, north and south of 17th Street. (Please also refer to Section 3.0, Project Description; Section 4.1, Land Use and Related Planning Programs; and Section 4.2, Aesthetics and Visual Resources for more detail on housing types.) The South Family Village is proposed to include a variety of single - family detached residences. The North Family Village is proposed to include both single - family detached residences and multi - family condominium development. Within the Urban Colony, both residential development and community retail uses are proposed. The Urban Colony is proposed for higher- density, multi- family attached homes; live -work units are also proposed. The Resort Colony would include the proposed resort inn and residential condominiums. The residential condominiums are proposed to be conventionally owned but, at the discretion of the individual owners, may be operated by the resort inn as visitor - serving overnight accommodations. The Project would retain approximately 252 acres (63 %) of the site as open space and provide approximately 51.4 gross acres for parks including a 26.8- gross -acre (21.7- net -acre) Community Park. Additionally, the Project includes pedestrian and bicycle trails throughout the Project site with access to the County's regional trail system (see Section 4.8, Recreation and Trails) as well as the proposed pedestrian and bicycle bridge across West Coast Highway. The Project is consistent with this policy. The General Plan Housing Element identifies key areas for future housing opportunities. The General Plan designates these areas as having the opportunity for approximately 4,612 new du. The General Plan identifies 1,375 du for the Newport Banning Ranch site, which is approximately 29% of the total number of new dwelling units identified in the General Plan for these collective areas. The General Plan identifies the maximum intensity of development allowed on the Newport Banning Ranch site to include 1,375 du; 75,000 sf of retail commercial uses oriented to serve the needs of local and nearby RAProj.tMNewpart \J015\ID.ft EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -21 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -12 (Continued) CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS City of Newport Beach General Plan Relevant Goals, Policies, and Programs Consistency Analysis residents; and 75 resort inn rooms in a small boutique hotel or other type of overnight visitor accommodation. Should the Project be approved with 1,375 du, the Project would provide a minimum of 50 percent of the required affordable housing on the Project site. The remaining affordable housing obligation would be met through the payment of in -lieu fees, the construction of off -site affordable housing including the rehabilitation of existing off -site housing that would contribute to meeting the City's RHNA requirements; and/or land dedication. Should the Project be approved with 1,375 du, the Project would provide Very Low Income (5 %), Low Income (10 %), or Moderate Income (15 %) housing units. The Applicant can also provide a combination of the income category housing units rather than a single income group. Because no dwelling units are anticipated to be occupied until 2016, the proposed affordable housing units would not count toward the City achieving its SCAG 2014 RHNA housing construction target. However, it is anticipated that the Project site would have been rezoned prior to that timeframe, which would demonstrate that the City has an available site on the Newport Banning Ranch property for inclusion in the City's affordable housing sites inventory. Additionally, the Project's obligation to provide off -site affordable housing (in -lieu fees, rehabilitation, land dedication, or a combination thereof) would assist the City in meeting its RHNA target for the subsequent planning period of January 1, 2011 to September 30, 2021. The Project is consistent with the growth projected for the property. LU Policy 6.2.3: Residential Affordability The Project is consistent with this policy. As noted in the Encourage the development of residential units that are response to Land Use Policy 6.2.1, the Project would affordable for those employed in the City. include affordable housing. As a part of the City's Inclusionary, Housing Program, it is the City's goal that an average of 15% of all new housing units be affordable to very low, low, or moderate income households. Housing Element A balanced residential community, comprised of a The Project is consistent with this goal. The Project variety of housing types, designs, and opportunities for proposes development of a variety of housing types, all social and economic segments including the opportunity for low and medium density housing, affordable housing units, and housing associated with mixed -use development. These housing types would range in size and cost to accommodate a variety of future residents. Please also refer to the response to Land Use Element Goal LU 6.2. Policies and Programs H Policy 2.1 The Project is consistent with the policy. Of the total Encourage preservation of existing and provision of new 1,375 du, the Project includes up to 206 affordable units housing affordable to very low, low- and moderate- to be developed in accordance with the AHIP. income households. R:\Proj.WNewpan \J015\ID.ft EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -22 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -12 (Continued) CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS City of Newport Beach General Plan Relevant Goals, Policies, and Programs Consistency Analysis Housing Program 2.1.2 The Project is consistent with this program. Should the Take all feasible actions, through use of development City approve the Project, the proposed Development agreements, expedited development review, and Agreement between the City and the Applicant would expedited processing of grading, building and other require the provision of affordable housing. The development permits, to ensure expedient construction Applicant anticipates that residential occupancy would and occupancy for projects approved with low- and commence in 2016. moderate - income housing requirements. H Policy 2.2 The Project is consistent with this policy. The Project Encourage the housing development industry to respond proposes a maximum of 1,375 du, including detached and to housing needs of the community and to the demand attached single - family, multi - family, and mixed -use for housing as perceived by the industry, with the intent residences including a minimum of 50% of the Project's of achieving the Regional Housing Needs Assessment affordable housing units provided on the Project site, as construction goals within five years. described in the draft AHIP. Housing Program 2.2.1 The Project is consistent with this program. As Require a proportion of affordable housing in new addressed in the Project Description and in this EIR residential developments or levy an in -lieu fee. The section, a draft AHIP has been prepared and is a City's goal over the five -year planning period is for an discretionary action associated with approval of the average of 15 percent of all new housing units to be Project by the City. Please refer to the response to Land affordable to very low -, low -, and moderate - income Use Policy 6.2.1. households. The City shall either (a) require the payment of an in -lieu fee, or (b) require the preparation of an Affordable Housing Implementation Plan (AHIP) that specifies how the development will meet the City's affordable housing goal, depending on the following criteria for project size: 1. Projects of 50 or fewer units shall have the option of preparing an AHIP or paying the in -lieu fee. 2. Projects where more than 50 units are proposed shall be required to prepare an AHIP. Implementation of this program will occur in conjunction with City approval of any residential discretionary permits or Tentative Tract Maps. To insure compliance with the 15 percent affordability requirements, the City will include conditions in the approval of discretionary permits and Tentative Tract Maps to require ongoing monitoring of those projects. Housing Program 2.2.2 The Project is consistent with this program. Please refer The City shall provide more assistance for projects that to the response to LU Policy 6.2.1: Residential Supply. provide a higher number of affordable units or a greater The Applicant has not requested City funding level of affordability. At least 15 percent of units shall be assistance. affordable when assistance is provided from Community Development Block Grant funds or the City's in -lieu housing fund. Housing Program 2.2.3 The Project is consistent with this program. Section For new developments proposed in the Coastal Zone 65590 of the California Government Code applies to the areas of the City, the City shall follow Government Code provision of housing that is affordable to low income and Section 65590 and Title 20. moderate income households in the coastal zone and precludes the conversion or demolition of existing residences occupied by persons and families of low or moderate income unless provision has been made for the replacement of the units with units for persons and families of low or moderate income in the same city. Section 65590(d) requires that "new housing R:\Proj.WNewpan \J015\IOraft EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -23 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -12 (Continued) CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS City of Newport Beach General Plan Relevant Goals, Policies, and Proqrams Consistency Analysis Housing Program 2.2.4 All required affordable units shall have restrictions to maintain their affordability for a minimum of 30 years. Housing Program 2.2.8 New developments which provide housing for lower income households that help meet regional needs shall have priority for the provision of available and future resources or services, including water and sewer supply and services. (NR 1.6) H Policy 2.3 Approve, wherever feasible and appropriate, mixed residential and commercial use developments that improve the balance between housing and jobs. Element Goal H 3 Housing opportunities for as many renter and owner occupied households as possible in response to the demand for housing in the city. Policies and Housing Program 3.1.2 When a residential developer agrees to construct housing for persons and families of very low, low and moderate income above mandated requirements, the City shall either (1) grant a density bonus as required by state law, or (2) provide other incentives of equivalent financial value. Housing Program 3.1.3 Review and consider in accordance with state law, the waiver of planning and park fees, and modification of development standards, (e.g., setbacks, lot coverage, etc.) at the discretion of City Council and Planning Commission for developments containing very low, low - and moderate - income housing in proportion to the number of low- and moderate - income units in each entire orciect. Element Goal H 5 Housing opportunities for special needs populations. developments constructed within the coastal zone shall, where feasible, provide housing units for persons and families of low or moderate income, as defined in Section 50093 of the Health and Safety Code'. Because there are no residences on the Project site, no residents would be displaced. The Project is consistent with this Program because a minimum of 50% percent of the Project's affordable housing obligation would be constructed on the Project site. The Project is consistent with this program. The City would require that the moderate income units associated with the Project remain as affordable units for 30 years. The Project is consistent with this program. With respect to public services and utilities, the proposed Project can be adequately served; please refer to Section 4.14, Public Services and Facilities, and Section 4.15, Utilities. The Project is consistent with this policy. As proposed, the Project would include residential, retail, and visitor - serving resort uses, in addition to recreational uses and open space uses. Within the Mixed -Use District on the Project site, 703 units are proposed. The Project is consistent with this goal. The Project proposes the maximum number of units (1,375 du) allowed by the General Plan for this site. As proposed, the Project would include both rental and ownership units. All affordable housing units are proposed as rental units. The Project is consistent with this program. The Project would provide very low, low, and /or moderate income housing with a minimum of 50% of the units provided on the Project site. No additional affordable units have been proposed by the Applicant. The Applicant has not requested a density bonus. The Project is consistent with this program. The City addresses Project fees as a part of the proposed Development Agreement; fees would not affect the potential environmental effects of the Project. The Project is consistent with this goal. While housing for special needs populations has not been identified as a part of the Project, such housing could be provided on the Project site. R:\Proj.WNewpan \J015\ID.ft EIRWY Pap- 090211.d.c 4.7 -24 Newport Banning Ranch Draft Environmental Impact Report Section 4.7 Population, Housing, and Employment TABLE 4.7 -12 (Continued) CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH GENERAL PLAN CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS City of Newport Beach General Plan Consistency Analysis Relevant Goals, Policies, and Programs Consistency Analysis Policies and Programs H Policy 5.1 The Project is consistent with this policy. Please refer to Encourage approval of housing opportunities for senior the response to Housing Element Goal H 5. citizens and other special needs populations. development, except as otherwise provided Housing Program 5.1.3 The Project is consistent with this program. No granny Permit, where appropriate, development of "granny" units are proposed by the Applicant as a part of the units in single - family areas of the City. Project. However, the Newport Banning Ranch Planned and park and open space uses; to the south is West Coast Community Development Plan (PC -57) would not Highway, and south of the highway is existing residential prohibit them; the City's Municipal Code zoning development; to the east is existing residential, institutional, provisions would apply. As such, granny units could industrial, and office uses; and to the west is existing residential be developed in the future on the Project site in development, wetlands, and the Santa Ana River. As a part of accordance with the City's Municipal Code. du: dwelling unit; sf: square feet; AHIP: Affordable Housing Implementation Program. TABLE 4.7 -13 CALIFORNIA COASTAL ACT CONSISTENCY ANALYSIS Relevant California Coastal Act Policies Consistency Analysis Development Section 30250 Location; existing developed As addressed in Section 4.1, Land Use and Related Planning area Programs, the Project is consistent with this section. The (a) New residential, commercial, or industrial proposed Project is located near and /or adjacent to several development, except as otherwise provided existing residential communities as well as areas that are in this division, shall be located within, already developed for commercial and industrial purposes. To contiguous with, or in close proximity to, the north of the Project site is existing residential development existing developed areas able to and park and open space uses; to the south is West Coast accommodate it or, where such areas are Highway, and south of the highway is existing residential not able to accommodate it, in other areas development; to the east is existing residential, institutional, with adequate public services and where it industrial, and office uses; and to the west is existing residential will not have significant adverse effects, development, wetlands, and the Santa Ana River. As a part of either individually or cumulatively, on the Project, the site would be remediated and oil facilities would coastal resources. In addition, land be consolidated into two locations away from the proposed divisions, other than leases for agricultural residential development on the Project site. Visitor - serving uses, outside existing developed areas facilities are proposed on the Project site closest to existing shall be permitted only where 50 percent of transportation corridors (e.g., West Coast Highway) and near the usable parcels in the area have been recreational uses. Therefore, adequate public services (e.g., developed and the created parcels would sewer, water, utilities) can be extended to the Project site and be no smaller than the average size of are sufficient to serve new development. surrounding parcels. (b) Where feasible, new hazardous industrial development shall be located away from existing developed areas. (c) Visitor- serving facilities that cannot feasibly be located in existing developed areas shall be located in existing isolated developments or at selected points of attraction for visitors. 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