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Home My WebLink About20191218_Coastal Hazards AnalysisPMA CONSULTING, INC. CONSUL TING STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS 28161 Casitas Ct. PH. (714) 717-7542 Laguna Niguel, CA 92677 December 09, 2019 Craig S. Hampton, Inc. 5500 E. Quartersawn Street Boise, Idaho 83 716 e-mail: p.petrov@pma-bg.com RE: COASTAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS REPORT FOR COASTAL DEVELOPMENT PERMIT 5009 Seashore, LLC; Applicant 5009 Seashore Drive City of Newport Beach, County of Orange PMA Job #32519 Dear Mr. Hampton, PMA Consulting, Inc. is pleased to provide this report regarding Coastal Hazards Analysis for the proposed development at the subject site. The site is adjacent to Pacific Ocean; thus, it may be subject to Coastal Hazards such as, flooding, wave runup, and erosion. This study investigates the potential for the aforementioned hazards to impact the proposed development on the site over the next 75 years and addresses compliance with Coastal Hazards Analysis Report requirements and standards ofNBMC Section 21.30.15.E.2. STATEMENT OF THE PREPARER'S QUALIFICATIONS Plamen Petrov, P.E., the preparer of the Coastal Hazards Analysis Report on this project, holds a Master of Science in Structural Engineering from University of Architecture, Structural Engineering & Geodesy of Sofia, Bulgaria, and is a Licensed Civil Engineer by the State of California Certificate No. C66947. For the last 20 years of his professional career he has been actively involved in the design and entitlement of many Waterfront Developments such as custom homes, seawalls, piers, platforms, floating docks and marinas. A great number of Coastal Hazards Analysis Reports prepared by him have been reviewed and accepted/approved by California Coastal Commission. All the above being said, Plamen Petrov, P.E. shall be considered a qualified preparer for the Coastal Hazards Analysis Report on this project. Requirements in Appendix A for Step 1: Establish the project sea level rise range for the proposed project's planning horizon (life of project) using the current best available science. The State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance 2018 update developed by the Ocean Protection Council in close coordination with Policy Advisory Committee with representation from California Natural Resources Agency, the Governor's Office of Planning and Research, and the California Energy Commission provides a bold, science-based methodology for state and local PA2019-264 governments to analyze and assess the risks associated with sea-level rise , and to incorporate Sea- Level Rise into their planning, permitting, and investment decisions, and it is considered the current best available science. As reflected in the clouded area of the enclosed Table 28, based upon direct interpolation of the data for High emissions 2090 & 2100 and Medium-High Risk Aversion, over the project's planning horizon of 75 years, the estimated Sea-Level Rise (SLR) for year 2094 shall be approximately 6.00', which is the Sea-Level Rise for the proposed project. Based on the highest high tide of +7.90'MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water)== 7.72'NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum 1988) recorded in the project area, the above established Sea-Level Rise will account for bay water level of +13.90'MLLW. Requirements in Appendix A for Step 2: Determine how physical impacts from sea level rise may constrain the project site, including erosion, structural and geologic stability, flooding, and inundation. According to the enclosed Exterior Elevations Sheet 6, the lowest habitable Finished Floor Elevation of the proposed structure is at+ 15.08' NA VD88==+ 15.26'MLL W which is above the Base Flood Elevation established for the area. The highest high tide reached in Newport Beach of +7.90' MLLW is approximately 7.36' below the lowest habitable Finished Floor Elevation of the proposed structure and will remain below it until after year of 2094. INTRODUCTION The subject site is currently separated from the shoreline by an approximately 300 feet wide relatively flat sandy beach, as reflected on the following Photo. PA2019-264 FLOODING HAZARD The primary hazard due to flooding from the ocean waters for this site, like majority of the sites located adjacent to Pacific Ocean, would be due to long term Sea-Level Rise. The current water levels in Newport Bay are reflected on the enclosed Datums for Newport Bay Entrance. According to the enclosed Topographic Survey, the lowest Finished Grade at the subject site facing the beach is+ 14.84' NAVD88. While Sea-Levels have been Rising for decades, higher rates of raise are forecast for the coming century because of climate change -see enclosed table 28. Increases can be attributed to warmer temperatures, which cause water to expand, as well more liquid mass caused by melting of ice caps. Current estimates of future SLR generally fall in the range of 4.5-6.7 ft for the year 2100. Global warming may impact flooding in other ways as well. Warmer water could intensify North Pacific storms, bringing greater wind and wave energy to shoreline in winter and higher intensity precipitation. The Newport Beach Peninsula portion of the Pacific Institute California Flood Risk Map is shown herein as OE S Quadrangle. The dark blue colored areas show the areas where a 100-year Sea- Level Rise of 55 inches is added to the existing FEMA coastal flood elevation shown in light blue. Obviously, the entire Newport Bay area will be affected if sea level rises 55 inches by the year 2100. If the sea level rises in the next several decades as currently estimated, regional measures to mitigate the potential flooding hazard shall be taken. As determined in Step 2 above, lowest habitable Finished Floor Elevation of the proposed structure will remain below High Tide sea level until after year of 2094. Thus, the proposed development shall not be a subject to Flooding over the economic life of the structure. WAVERUNUP Wave runup is the uprush of water from wave action on a shore barrier intercepting Stillwater level. On steeply sloped shorelines, the rush of water up the surface of the natural beach, including dunes and bluffs, or the surface of a manmade structure, such as revetment or vertical wall can result in flood elevations higher than those of the crest of wind-driven waves. See wave Runup Sketch below. / Umlt of Wave Runup -~ .. r •... ~_' ... , ....... . ' Stillwate, Elevation Hypotheliall Slope Wave Runup Sketch PA2019-264 During a storm, the sea level rises along the shoreline and allows for waves to break closer to the shoreline and runup on the beach. As acknowledged in Step 1 above, the historical highest water elevation in Newport Beach is 7.90 feet above MLLW (approximately 7.72 feet above NAVD88). Sea-Level Rise for the proposed project is 6.00'. The wave that generates the greatest runup is the wave that hasn't broken yet when it reaches the toe of the beach. According to the Coastal Construction manual FEMA 55, for a coastal flood hazard area where the ground is gently sloping, as it slopes at the subject site, Wave Crest=Base Flood Elevation (BFE) shall be equal to Erno+0.55d100, where Erno= 100-year Stillwater elevation in feet above datum; d100= 100-year Stillwater depth. In our case, Erno= 7.90'+6.00'=13.90 feet; d100=13.90'-14.84'= -0.94 feet, say 0.00 feet. Thus, BFE=13.90'+0.00'=13.90' which will be below the lowest Finished Floor Elevation of +15.26' MLLW. It is unlikely that overtopping waters over the next 75 years will reach the subject site, even under extreme weather conditions. Due to the sand profile in front of the site, even if some waters reach the site, they will not cause erosion and/or damage, because of their relatively low velocity. EROSION HAZARD Erosion refers to the wearing or washing away of coastal lands. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open ocean shores of the United States. To meet the needs for comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement, the United States Geological Survey has conducted analysis of historical shoreline changes along open ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and has produced an Open-File Report 2006-1219 entitled "National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3: Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast". The report looks at survey data of the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1950s-1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 1998-2002. The report looks at both long-term and short-term changes. According to the report, the average rate of long-term shoreline change for the State of California was 0.2±0.1 m/yr., and accretional trend. The average rate of short-term shoreline change for the state was erosional; with an average rate of -0.2±0.4 m/yr. The beach footprint of this site is stabilized and not subject to significant long-term erosion. Review and analysis of historical aerial photographs and field measurements for seawall repairs in the area show no change in the position of the shoreline over the last several decades. The future shoreline changes over the next 75 years are assumed to be the same as in the previous several decades. However, there is a rapid rate of Sea-Level Rise predicted in the next 75 years. If that prediction holds true, the rapid Sea- Level Rise may accelerate shoreline erosion, but it shall not impact the structure on the subject lot over its economic life. GROUNDWATER AND SLR As mentioned previously in this report, the project site is about 300 feet from the ocean. Being that far from the ocean, the groundwater elevation is lower than the tides. Thus, ifthere is about 6.00' of SLR in the next 75 years, the future maximum groundwater elevation on this site will be the typical groundwater elevation plus approximately 5.00', which added to the historical highest water elevation in Newport Beach ocean waters of 7 .90 feet above MLL W (7. 72 feet above NA VD88) will still be below the lowest habitable Finished Floor Elevation of+ 15.26' MLLW. Our conclusion is that rise in the future groundwater elevation due to SLR shall not adversely impact the structure on the lot over its economic life. PA2019-264 CONCLUSION In conclusion, flooding, wave runup and erosion will not significantly impact this property over the proposed life of the development. Thus, need for a shoreline protective devise is not anticipated over the economic life of the proposed development to protect it from flooding, wave runup or erosion. The above conclusion was prepared based on the existing conditions, proposed drawings, current projection of future Sea-Level Rise, and within the inherent limitations of this study, in accordance with generally acceptable engineering principles and practices. We make no further warranty, either expressed or implied. PMA Consulting, Inc. appreciates the opportunity to work with you towards the successful completion of your project. Should you have any questions regarding this report, please give us a call. Respectfully submitted, Plamen Petrov, P.E. Principal Enclosures: Location Map Aerial View Topographic Survey Architectural Exterior Elevations Sheet 6 Table 28: Projected Sea-Level Rise (in feet) for Los Angeles 2094 Datums for Newport Bay Entrance Newport Beach OE S Quadrangle PA2019-264 PMA Consulting!! In~. Consulting Structural Engineers 28161 Casitas Ct., Laguna Niguel, CA 92677 Phone: (714) 717-7542 E-Mail : P .Petrov®PMA-BG.com PROJECT SITE 5009 SEAS HORE DRIVE NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92663 l ~ , l l . ,'3: i • ➔ JOB . 325 19 SHT. DE S. PBP DATE 12/09 /19 . J-:19'ag .·~~rn1;Qri ·~1 H;ospi_fal Pres ·yterian · e·as hore.:Drive: · .. . .. . . LOCATION MAP PA2019-264 I ' . PMA Consulting~ Inc. Consulting Structural Engineers 28161 Casitas Ct., Laguna Niguel, CA 92677 Phone: (7 14) 717-7542 E-Mail : P .Petrov@PMA-BG.com 5009 SEASHORE DRIVE NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92663 AERIAL VIEW JOB. 325 19 SHT. DES . PBP DATE 12 /09/19 PA2019-264 t---------i--_/ ----1----f----✓ ____ _L -----! -----/ _________________________________ t ! · I • I . · I SE~SHDRE .DRIV·E1 • • i I d i i J&i" • • 1' LEGEND DESCRIPTION '123.45) MEAS. ELEVATIONS < ) REC. BRG. g. DIST, = DECK # BRICK \JALL ---------BUILDING _,. _____ PROPERTY LINE ------,<--I FENCE S BENCH MARK N,G. NATURAL GRADE P.P. P□VER POLE \JM 'w'ATER METER f".F. FINISH F'LO□R G.F'. GARAGE F'LOOR C □NC. CONCRETE F'.S. F'INISH SURF"ACE H.H, MAN-HOLE P PLANTER A.C. ASPHALT T.G. TOP-GRATE Rc!M SURVEYING INC. RON MIEDEMA LS. 4653 23016 LAKE F'□REST DR. 1t409 LAGUNA HILLS, CA 92653 (949) 858-2924 OFFICE (949) 858-3438 F'AX RDMSURVEYING@C□X.NE T I ~ : ~ : I .J I ' ' ' ·-----~-• • I ! r-r---.,k;_---, -~~--;.-~-:r-----I---------------{---------------; i ' ;,,,.-,/Pc.,;.---=,~-1".--i;-/.-l "' II:. "' • -~ ;DIC. --I I I -1 ~ I -.: I ' ,:? I I I 1 I I -l_'j' I -I I I I I I ' I I I I 1--✓ -, I ~ I I I I I I 1-I ---~ I -.dl['.., I I I I 1' I j ! I I : : -=-I J#' I ax. y i1~1 I I t I I I I I J-•-1 ul t I I CARPORT I I I I • f-I ..... ,_ 1-' _J I •-5r 11 • I I I I I-I • W 1-, " 'i 'I :t::r-. I·' I I I I W I w 2 STORY ..J 11!1 ---=-.JI ~-,... I I I w 1' 1 ~ RESIDENCE tffi_#i~ lf/"{oc.1coc.l : : I ~ I f-2 STORY ~~j-1 I iii I I I f-' v? RESIDENCE ___ ... __ 1.):I I la,c.l~: : I 11 (/) I 1 IBLl"ll I I~ 2 STORY I I I I-I ~-I 2 STORY I_ :R:l,,i: RESIDENCE I I t I ti 1 (/) ~ I ~ l RESIDENCE ~81 I I I I-I .--i II!) I I ! I O I If) 1,~-: ~~ I I I I l0 I ' :•~, I /i~ fi;:11----l,'lf~---: : I , !I : ,.. : :~11 :I( :1'."'i :-:~~ : : l ! i I =----;,----7.Z-J :-V-__________ J:-~ ___ F__ I : i I ! i i I .,.z ' ;f' 1 I I I = = ' --,JP'-• ,(I'--I I I I L_t _________ '.'.'.° __ '!:' • -L.-_ • -,i' -_ = = -I f------------_J I f------------_J I i :_~3":"' :iooF::· .,.... / :_:-.;;,-_,:._-~---d.,;~ -_ l l__ ____________ l_L_-:_"':.': _________ J / \ / '""" ~-16' l SCALE, 1'=8' NOTE, RECORD EASEMENTS ARE N□T PLOTTED IF' ANY, SURVEYOR OR ENGINEER SHALL PERMANENTLY MONUMENT PROPERTY CORNERS DR □f"'F'SETS BEFORE ST AR TING GRADING. TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEY JOB• 76-1 DATE, 4/17/19 / / / OWNER• BRIAN AND DANA FLOOD LEGAL DESCRIPTION• LDT 5 OF BLOCK 50 OF TRACT NO. 3813 BENCH MARK, COUNTY OF □RANGE BENCH MARK NB2-7-77, ELVATI□N = 8.56 NAVO 88 DATUM ADDRESS OF PROJECT, 5009 SEASHORE NE\IPORT BEACH. CA s,m 11 Of 11 SI-EETS PA2019-264 ii Ii <I "I ,f r..rr illiij i ii .~ , " IJ I II :~ I] DIii I ' i~ ji I II I I I: :ij I I ' I 111~ I' 1ti:e I I ·w I , ... "" I I "" I ""' U·Z: C S009SEA51{,:ulJRJ\'E,N!iWPORTBliACH,CALIFORNIA J Q_1,rroM RESIDENCE FOR 5009.SE>.SHORE..LLC :: I CORPORATEPu.z.A,SUm! 110 ~ NEWPORr Be..\CH, CA 9"-62S {949)81J.S058 1• ,§ !~ I ~ m In S;i ::l 0 z Ul . ~ : --1 ,; m r-m S;i '-I 6 z <I • i· ii I~ .,,. I '• ' -"' I~ la ol ••, ' . ' ~I ~! ii! C=::Jll C=::Jll C=::JII C=::JIII C=::Jllil C=::JII C=::Jllil C=::Jll ,~ •C !li: EXTERIOR ELEVATIONS COASTAL SUBMITTAL PACKAGE f f I i f f I I T§" I I "" I I I I I I .,,. lt---""----iij i ! ~~ ' I "ll ! I 1r I C~~~L; ~; !'f_A,~l,"l;ON DU.U.l;it<,;; QUAUfY \!lln'l.)ll HOMES IINCt 1~79 5'oor Q~u•~;)~-•o"<.1-'•'-<> 071& -~~i--...,. ..... ,..~"""'~ 1· .~ I~ ·• I I .. !~ !~ I PA2019-264 Hi gh emi ss ions 20 30 2040 20 50 Lo w em issions 2060 Hi gh emi ss ions 206 0 Lo w em iss ions 207 0 High emi ssions 2070 Lo w emi ssio ns 20 80 High emission s 20 80 Low emis sion s 20 90 High emis sion s 20 90 Lo w emi ss ion s 2100 Hi gh emissions 2100 Lo w em iss ion s 2110 · High em issi ons 2110 ' Lo w emi ss ions 2120 Hi gh emi ss ion s 2120 Lo w em iss ions 2130 Hi gh em is sion s 2130 Low emi ss ions 21 40 High emi ss ions 2140 Low emi ssions mo Hi gh emiss ions mo ST ATE Of CALIF ORNI A SEA -LEVEL RIS E GUID AN CE TABLE 28: Projected Sea -Leve l Rise (in feet) for Los Angeles Probabilistic projections f or the height of sea-level rise shown below, al ong with the H++ scenario (depicted in blue in the far right column), as seen in the Rising Seas Report. The H++ projection is a singl e scenario and does not have an associated l ikelihood of occurrence as do the probabilistic projections. Probabilistic projections are with respect to a baseline of the year 2000, or more specifica lly the average relative sea level over 1991 -2009. High em issions represents RCP 8. 5; low emissions represents R CP 2.6. Recommended projections for use in low, medium -high and extreme risk aversion decisions are outlined in blue boxes below. Low Medium -High Extreme Risk Avers ion Risk Aversion Risk Aversion 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0 .7 0.9 1.2 1.7 0 .7 0 .5 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 0 .8 0 .5 1.1 1.4 2.2 1.0 0 .7 1.3 1.7 2.5 3 .7 0 .9 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.9 1.2 0 .8 1.7 2 .2 3 .3 5 .0 1.0 0 .6 1.6 2 .1 3 .6 1.5 1.0 2.2 2.8 6.4 1.2 0.7 1.8 2.5 1.8 1.2 2 .7 3.4 8 .0 1.3 0 .7 2.1 3 .0 2 .2 1.3 3.2 4 .1 1.4 0 .9 2 .2 3 .1 2.3 1.6 3 .3 4.3 7.1 11 1.5 0 .9 2 .5 3 .6 7.1 SAY 6.0 FOR 2.7 1.8 3 .8 5 .0 8 .3 YEAR 2094 1.7 0 .9 2 .8 4.0 8 .1 3.0 2 .0 4 .3 5 .7 9.7 16.1 1.8 0 .9 3.0 4.5 9 .2 3.3 2.2 4 .9 6.5 11 .1 18 .7 1.9 0 .9 3 .3 5 .1 10.6 3 .7 2 .4 5.4 7.3 12.7 21.5 'Most of the available c limate model experiments do not extend beyond 2700. The resulting reduction in model availability causes a small dip in projec tions between 2700 and 2170 , as well as a shift in uncertainty estimates (see Kopp et al. 2074). Use of 2770 projections should be don e with caution and with acknowledgement of in c reased uncertainty around these projections. APPENDIX l : SEA-LEVEL RI SE PROJE CTION S FOR ALL 12 TIDE GAU GES I 72 PA2019-264 9410580 NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA Home(/) / Products (products.html)/ Datums (stations.html?type=Datums) / 9410580 NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA Favorite Stations...,. Station Info,., Tides/Water Levels,., Meteorological Obs. Phys. Oceanography Datums for 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE CA NOTICE: All data values are relative to the MLLW. Elevations on Mean Lower Low Water Station: 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA Status: Accepted (Apr 17 2003) Units: Feet T.M.: 120 Epoch: (/datum_options.html#NTDE) 1983-2001 Datum: MLLW Datum MHHW (/datum_options.html#MHHW) MHW (/datum_options.html#MHW) MTL (/datum_options.html#MTL) MSL (/datum_options.html#MSL) DTL (/datum_options.html#DTL) MLW (/datum_options.html#MLW) MLLW (/datum_options.html#MLLW) NAVD88 (/datum_options.html) STND (/datum_options.html#STND) GT (/datum_options.html#GT) MN (/datum_options.html#MN) DHQ (/datum_options.html#DHQ) Value 5.41 4.68 2.80 2.78 2.71 0.92 0.00 0.18 -3.33 5.41 3.76 0.74 Description Mean Higher-High Water Mean High Water Mean Tide Level Mean Sea Level Mean Diurnal Tide Level Mean Low Water Mean Lower-Low Water North American Vertical Datum of 1988 Station Datum Great Diurnal Range Mean Range of Tide Mean Diurnal High Water Inequality PA2019-264 Datum Value Description DLQ (/datum_options.html#DLQ) 0.92 Mean Diurnal Low Water Inequality HWI (/datum_options.html#HWI) 5.08 Greenwich High Water Interval (in hours) LWI (/datum_options.html#LWI) 11.15 Greenwich Low Water Interval (in hours) Max Tide (/datum_options.html#MAXTIDE) 7.67 Highest Observed Tide Max Tide Date & Time (/datum_options.html#MAXTIDEDT) 01/28/1983 08:06 Highest Observed Tide Date & Time Min Tide (/datum_options.html#MINTIDE) -2.35 Lowest Observed Tide Min Tide Date & Time (/datum_options.html#MINTIDEDT) 01/20/1988 16:30 Lowest Observed Tide Date & Time HAT (/datum_options.html#HAT) 7.18 Highest Astronomical Tide HAT Date & Time 12/02/1990 16:06 HAT Date and Time LAT (/datum_options.html#LAT) -1.92 Lowest Astronomical Tide LAT Date & Time 01/01/1987 00:00 LAT Date and Time Tidal Datum Analysis Periods 01/01/1980 -12/31/1993 To refer water level heights to NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988), apply the values located at National Geodetic Survey (http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/Tidal_Elevation/diagram.jsp?PID=DX1968&EPOCH=1983-2001 ). 5 Datums for 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRAN All figures in feet relative to MLLW DHQ: 0.74 ♦-------t-MHW: 4.68 PA2019-264 PAC I F I C I NST I TUTE California Flood Risk: Sea Level Rise Newport Beach OE S Quadrangle -~~-. -ustiig!wiay 0 -Sl•1e~ Q -c..,,,,.,,,.., [] Clll!et11Coa.i.lBM1Flood (epe,rorlmr .. 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