HomeMy WebLinkAboutPA2022-0159_20220707_Coastal Hazards ReportPMA CONSULTING, INC.
CONSUL TING STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS
28161 Casitas Ct. PH. (714) 717-7542
Laguna Niguel, CA 92677
July 07, 2022
John T. Morgan, Architect
18682 Beachmont Avenue
North Tustin, CA 92705
e-mail: consulting@pma-bg.com
COASTAL HAZARDS REPORT
Clifford Mickool; Applicant
3407 Finley Avenue
City of Newport Beach, County of Orange
PMA Job #42721
Dear Mr. Morgan,
PMA Consulting, Inc. is pleased to provide this report regarding Coastal Hazards Analysis for
the proposed development at the subject site. The site is adjacent to Newport Bay; thus, it may be
subject to Coastal Hazards such as, flooding, wave runup, and erosion. This study investigates the
potential for the aforementioned hazards to impact the proposed development on the site over the next
75 years and addresses compliance with Coastal Hazards Analysis Report requirements and standards
ofNBMC Section 21.30.15.E.2.
STATEMENT OF THE PREPARER'S QUALIFICATIONS
Plamen Petrov, P.E., the preparer of the Coastal Hazards Analysis Report on this project, holds
a Master of Science in Structural Engineering from University of Architecture, Structural Engineering
& Geodesy of Sofia, Bulgaria, and is a Licensed Civil Engineer by the State of California Certificate
No. C66947. For the last 22 years of his professional career, he has been actively involved in the design
and entitlement of many Waterfront Developments such as custom homes, seawalls, piers, platforms,
floating docks and marinas. A great number of Coastal Hazards Analysis Reports prepared by him have
been reviewed and accepted/approved by California Coastal Commission.
All the above being said, Plamen Petrov, P .E. shall be considered a qualified preparer for the
Coastal Hazards Analysis Report on this project.
Requirements in Appendix A for Step 1:
Establish the project sea level rise range for the proposed project's planning horizon Qife
of project) using the current best available science.
The State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance 2018 update developed by the Ocean
Protection Council in close coordination with Policy Advisory Committee with representation
from California Natural Resources Agency, the Governor's Office of Planning and Research, and the
California Energy Commission provides a bold, science-based methodology for state and local
governments to analyze and assess the risks associated with sea-level rise, and to incorporate Sea-Level
Rise into their planning, permitting, and investment decisions, and it is considered the current best
available science.
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As reflected in the clouded area of the enclosed Table 28, based upon direct interpolation
of the data for High emissions 2090 & 2100 and Low Risk Aversion, over the project's planning
horizon of75 years, the estimated Sea-Level Rise (SLR) for year 2097 shall be approximately
3.05', which is the Sea-Level Rise for the proposed project. Based on the highest high tide of
+7.SS'MLLW (7.70'NA VOSS) recorded in the project area, the above established Sea-Level Rise
will account for bay water level of+ 10. 75'NA VDSS.
As of March 23, 2021, City Council of City of Newport Beach has adopted new standards
establishing a minimum top of bulkhead/seawall elevation based on 5-year increments, reflected
in Table 2 below from City of Newport Beach Waterfront Projects Guidelines and Standards
Harbor Design Criteria for Commercial and Residential Facilities 2021 Edition.
Table No. 2
Year Structure Adopted NB Standard Design for Adaptability
Permitted Elevation lfeetl 1 Elevation lfeetl 2
NAVD88 MLLW NAVD88 MLLW
2020 10.7 10.9 13.7 13.9
2021-2025 10.9 11.1 14.4 14.6
2026-2030 11.0 11.1 14.6 14.8
2031-2035 11.0 11.2 14.8 15.0
J. Derived using the Upper Limit of the Low Risk Aversion probabilistic sea level rise
protection scenario.for the Los Angeles Iida/ gauge. estimated 75 years info thefi1ture
based 011 the State of Ca//fomia Sea level Rise Guidance. 2018 Update. This scenario
accmm/s for /he 11pper m11ge of whal is "/ike(l' lo occur" wilh approximale(r an 83
percenl probabilil)• thal sea level rise fi1/ls below lhe elevations show11.
2. Derived using the Medium-High Risk Aversion probabilistic sea level rise pro/eclio11
sce11ari0Ji,r !he Los Angeles tidal gauge, estimated 75 yea,:. info thefi1111re based 011 the
Slate of Califomia Sea Level Rise G11ida11ce. 20 J 8 Updote. This scenario accounts for
increased sea level with approximale(l'" l-i11-200 or 0.5 percell/ prob"bility that sea
le11el rise exceeds the elevations shown.
The bulkhead is to be raised to a minimum required + 10.97'NA VDSS, with a design for
adaptability elevation of+ 14.4'NA VDSS in compliance with the City of Newport Beach
waterfront Project Design Guidelines and Standards, Harbor Design Criteria Commercial &
Residential.
Requirements in Appendix A for Step 2:
Determine how physical impacts from sea level rise may constrain the project site,
including erosion, structural and geologic stability, flooding, and inundation.
According to the enclosed Architectural Site Plan A-1, 1'1 finished floor of the proposed
development is at +9.00' NA VDSS=+9.20'MLLW which is in compliance with the Base Flood
Elevation established for the area. Based on the SLR established in Step 1 above, 1'1 floor of the
proposed structure will remain above High Tide Sea level approximately until year of 2054,
based on Low Risk Aversion. As we well know, majority of the public streets in Newport Bay
area are currently at much lower elevations than the subject site and they will flood due to SLR
way before the development on this site becomes subject to flooding.
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FLOODING HAZARD
The primary hazard due to flooding from the ocean waters for this site, like majority of the sites
located adjacent to Newport Bay, would be due to long term Sea-Level Rise. The current water levels
in Newport Bay are reflected on the enclosed Datums for Newport Bay Entrance.
While Sea-Levels have been Rising for decades, higher rates of raise are forecast for the coming
century because of climate change -see enclosed table 28. Increases can be attributed to warmer
temperatures, which cause water to expand, as well more liquid mass caused by melting of ice caps.
Current estimates of future SLR generally fall in the range of 5.4-6. 7 ft for the year 2100. Global
warming may impact flooding in other ways as well. Warmer water could intensify North Pacific
storms, bringing greater wind and wave energy to shoreline in winter and higher intensity precipitation.
The Newport Beach Peninsula portion of the Pacific Institute California Flood Risk Map is
shown herein as OE S Quadrangle. The dark blue colored areas show the areas where a I 00-year Sea-
Level Rise of 55 inches is added to the existing FEMA coastal flood elevation shown in light blue.
Obviously, the entire Newport Bay area will be affected if sea level rises 55 inches by the year 2100.
If the sea level rises in the next several decades as currently estimated, regional measures
to mitigate the potential flooding hazard shall be taken. As determined in Step 2 above, 1st floor
elevation of the proposed structure will remain above High Tide Sea level approximately until
year of 2054. Utilizing Flashing and Waterproofing for up to 23" above top of slab, as reflected
on the enclosed detail, and sandbags at doors openings shall keep the building protected from
flooding until year of 2097.
In the event that SLR prediction of 6.70' (Medium High-Risk Aversion) for year of 2100 holds
true, the existing seawall has been designed and detailed to accommodate raise to top of wall
elevation of +14.4'NAVD88, as reflected on the enclosed SW-0 thru SW-2.
WAVE RUNUP AND TSUNAMI
Wave runup is the uprush of water from wave action on a shore barrier intercepting Stillwater
level. On steeply sloped shorelines, the rush of water up the surface of the natural beach, including
dunes and bluffs, or the surface of a manmade structure, such as revetment or vertical
wall can result in flood elevations higher than those of the crest of wind-driven waves. See Wave
Runup Sketch & ACSE Diagram below.
Wave runup terms from ACES analysis.
Due to its location, this site is not a subject to typical ocean waves and the associated wave
runup. Bay generated waves that may arrive at this site are very small wind waves and boat wakes.
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These types of waves are generally dampened by the moored vessels and dock systems located
in front of the site and have no significant energy and run up effect. Tsunami type waves that approach
from the ocean shoreline will likely not reach the site for several reasons. There is no significant near
field source of a tsunami like the geologic conditions of some other places on Earth such as Japan, for
example. A far field tsunami reaching the ocean shoreline will likely not reach the site because of the
distance and developments between the shoreline and this site. A near or far field tsunami propagating
into Newport Bay proper would likely cause a seiche or standing wave on the order of 1.3 feet traveling
within the bay. At the highest anticipated tide in Newport Beach of +7.88'MLLW this shall result in
slight overtopping of the bulkhead/seawall. Due to its very infrequent occurrence-500-year
recurrence interval -tsunami should not be considered a significant impact over the life of the
proposed structure -75 years.
EROSION HAZARD
Erosion refers to the wearing or washing away of coastal lands. Beach erosion is a chronic
problem along many open ocean shores of the United States. To meet the needs for comprehensive
analysis of shoreline movement, the United States Geological Survey has conducted analysis of
historical shoreline changes along open ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and has
produced an Open-File Report 2006-1219 entitled "National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3:
Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the
California Coast". The report looks at survey data of the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and
I 950s-1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 1998-2002. The report looks at both long-term and
short-term changes. According to the report, the average rate of long-term shoreline changes for the
State of California was 0.2±0.1 rn/yr., and accretional trend. The average rate of short-term shoreline
change for the state was erosional; with an average rate of -0.2±0.4 rn/yr. The beach footprint of this
site is stabilized and not subject to significant long-term erosion. Review and analysis of historical
aerial photographs and field measurements for seawall repairs in the area show no change in the
position of the shoreline over the last several decades. The future shoreline changes over the next 75
years are assumed to be the same as in the previous several decades.
However, there is a rapid rate of SLR predicted in the next 75 years. If that prediction holds true, the
rapid SLR may accelerate shoreline erosion, but it shall not impact the structure on the subject lot over its
economic life.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, flooding, wave runup and erosion will not significantly impact this property over
the proposed life of the development. The existing seawall/bulkhead is required to protect the proposed
structures on the lot, the adjacent properties, public facilities and infrastructure; thus, it can't be removed.
Removal of the seawall/bulkhead will result in erosion and undermining the foundations of the structures
and site walls at the subject site and both adjacent sites. Once the existing seawall/bulkhead is
repaired/reinforced in compliance with the enclosed drawings SW-0 thru SW-2, need for a new shoreline
protective devise shall not anticipated over the economic life of the proposed development to protect it
from flooding, wave runup or erosion. If found not adequate for the actual sea level rise over the next 75
years, the existing seawall/bulkhead assembly allows to be increased in height to+ 14.4'NA VD88, without
further seaward encroachment. If during this period the seawall/bulkhead displays any sign of distress
that requires immediate attention, due to some unforeseen catastrophic or disastrous events, it should be
repaired or replaced at that time accordingly, ,vithout seaward encroachment from its current location.
The above conclusion was prepared based on the existing conditions, proposed drawings, current
projection of future Sea-Level Rise, and within the inherent limitations of this study, in accordance with
generally acceptable engineering principles and practices. We make no further warranty, either expressed or
implied.
PMA Consulting, Inc. appreciates the opportunity to work with you towards the successful completion
of your project. Should you have any questions regarding this report, please contact us.
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PA2022-0159
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Respectfully submitted,
Plamen Petrov, P.E.
Principal
Enclosures:
Location Map
Aerial View
Topographic Survey
Architectural Site Plan A-1
Table 28: Projected Sea-Level Rise (in feet) for Los Angeles 2100 Low & Medium-High Risk Aversion
Table 28: Projected Sea-Level Rise (in feet) for Los Angeles 2097 Low Risk A version
Datums for Newport Bay Entrance
Waterproofing & Flashing Detail
Newport Beach OE S Quadrangle
Seawall Drawings SW-0 thru SW-2
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PMA f;onsnlting!t In~.
Consulting Strue,tural Engineers
28161 Casitas Ct., Laguna Ni!,'llel, CA 92677
Phone: (714) 717-7542
E-Mail: P.Petrov@PMA-BG.com
3407 FINLEY AVENUE
NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92663
Lido Marina Village f
V/a , f.../(/0
Bear Flag Fish Company '
,3407 Finley
Ave, Newport Beach... '
PROJECT
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Lido House,
Autograph Collection
'
yfarer Media 9
32nd St
The Original Mama
D's Italian Kitchen .._
Newport
Island
' 31st St
Pavilions 9
29th St
LOCATION MAP
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PMA Consulting~ In~.
Consulting Stmctural Engineers
28161 Casitas Ct., Laguna Niguel, CA 92677
Phone: (714) 717-7542
E-Mail: P.Petrov@PMA-BG.com
3407 FINLEY AVENUE
NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92663
AERIAL VIEW
JOB. 42721
SHT.
DES. PBP
DATE 07 /07 /22
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2070
2080
2080
2090
2090
2100
2100
2110'
mo·
2120
2120
mo
2130
2140
2140
2150
2150
ST AIE Of CA lll ORNI A HA·lEV!l RISE GUIDANCE
TABLE 2 8 : Projected Sea-Level Rise (in feet) for Los Angeles
Probabilistic projections for the height of sea-level rise shown below, along with the
H++ scenario (depicted in blue in the far right column), as seen in the Rising Seas
Report. The H++ projection is a single scenario and does not have an associated
likelihood of occurrence as do the probabilistic projections. Probabilistic projections
are with respect to a baseline of the year 2000, or more specifically the average
relative sea level over 7997 -2009. High emissions represents RCP 8.5; low emissions
represents RCP 2. 6. Recommended projections for use in low, medium-high and
extreme risk aversion decisions are outlined in blue boxes below.
' 1-IN-20 Cl!/\NCl
5% probability
sea-level rise meets
or exceeds ...
Low
Risk
Aversion ----·
0 .3 0 .2 0 .5 0.6 0.7 1.0
0.5 0.4 0.7 0 .9 1.2 1.7
0 .7 0 .5 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 --------0.8 0 .5 1.1 1.4 2.2
1.0 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.7
0.9 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.9
1.2 0.8 1.7 2.2 3.3 5 .0
1.0 0.6 1.6 2.1 3.6
1.5 1.0 2.2 2.8 4.3 6 .4
1.2 0.7 1.8 2.5 4.5
1.8 1.2 2.7 3.4 5.3 8.0 -------
1.3 0.7 2.1 3.0 5.4
2.2 1.3 3.2 4.1 9.9
1.4 0.9 2.2 3.1 6.0
2.3 1.6 3.3 4.3 7.1 11 .5 -----1.5 0.9 2.5 3.6 7.1
2.7 1.8 3.8 5.0 8.3 13.8 -----1.7 0.9 2.8 4.0 8.1
3.0 2.0 4.3 5.7 9.7 16.1 ---------
1.8 0.9 3.0 4.5 9.2
3 .3 2.2 4.9 6.5 11.1 18.7
1.9 0.9 3.3 5.1 10 .6
3.7 2.4 5.4 7.3 12.7 21.5
"Most of the available climate model experiments do not ext end beyond 2100. The resulting
reduction in model availab ility causes a small dip in projections between 2100 and 2110, as well as
a shif t in uncertainty estimates (see Kopp et al. 2014). Use of 2110 projections should be done with
caution and with acknowledgement of increased uncertainty around these projections.
APPENDIX J: IE A·l lV!l RISE PROJE CTIONS FOR All 12 1101 GA UGE S I 7 I 10
PA2022-0159
f
r
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
l ow emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
low emissions
High emissions
SIAI[ Of CAllfORNIA IEA·l[V [l RII[ GUIOANCE
TABLE 28: Projected Sea-Level Rise (in feet) for Los Angeles
Probabilistic projections for the height of sea-level rise shown below, along with the
H++ scenario (depicted in blue in the far right column), as seen in the Rising Seas
Report. The H++ projection is a single scenario and does not have an associated
likelihood of occurrence as do the probabilistic projections. Probabilistic projections
are with respect to a baseline of the year 2000, or more specifically the average
relative sea level over 7997 -2009. High emissions represents RCP 8.5; low emissions
represents RCP 2.6. Recommended projections for use in low, medium-high and
extreme risk aversion decisions are outlined in blue boxes below.
Low Medium· High Extreme Risk
Aversion Risk Aversion Risk Aversion ----2030 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0
2040 0.5 0 .4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7
2050 0.7 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.6
2060 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.2
2060 1.0 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.7
2070 0.9 0 .6 1.3 1.8 2.9
2070 1.2 0.8 1.7 2.2 3.3 5.0
2080 1.0 0.6 1.6 2.1 3.6
2080 1.5 1.0 2. 2.8 4.3 6.4
2090 1.2 0.7 4.5
2090 1.8 1.2 5.3 8 .0
2100 1.3 0.7 5.4
2100 2.2 1.3 .7 9.9
2110' 1.4 0 .9 .0
mo· 2.3 1.6 3.3 4. 7.1 11.5 -----mo 1.5 0 .9 2.5 3.6 7.1
mo 2.7 1.8 3.8 5.0 8.3 13.8 ---
2130 1.7 0.9 2.8 4.0 8.1
mo 3.0 2.0 4.3 5.7 9.7 16.1
2140 1.8 0.9 3.0 4.5 9.2
2140 3.3 2.2 4.9 6.5 11.1 18.7 -----------mo 1.9 0.9 3.3 5.1 10.6
mo 3.7 2.4 5.4 7.3 12.7 21.5
'Most of the available climate model experiments do not extend beyond 2100. The resulting
reduction in model availability causes a small dip in projections between 2100 and 2110, as well as
a shift in uncertainty estimates (see Kopp et al. 2014). Use of 2110 projections should be done with
caution and with acknowledgement of increased uncertainty around these projections.
APPINOIX l : SI A·llVEl RI SI PROJE CTION S FOR All 12 110 1 GAUGE \ I 72 11
PA2022-0159
9410580 NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA
Home (/} / Products (products.html} / Datums (stations.html?type=Datums} I
9410580 NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA Favorite Stations •
Station Info• Tides/Water Levels• Meteorological Obs. Phys. Oceanography
Datums for 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY
ENTRANCE CA
NOTICE: All data values are relative to the MLLW.
Elevations on Mean Lower Low Water
Station: 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRANCE, CA
Status: Accepted (Apr 17 2003}
Units: Feet
T.M.: 120
Epoch: (/datum_options.html#NTDE} 1983-2001
Datum: MLLW
Datum
MHHW (/datum_options.html#MHHW}
MHW (/datum_options.html#MHW}
MTL (/datum_options.html#MTL}
MSL (/datum_options.html#MSL}
DTL (/datum_options.html#DTL}
MLW (/datum_options.html#MLW}
MLLW (/datum_options.html#MLLW}
NAVD88 (/datum_options.html}
STND (/datum_options.html#STND}
GT (/datum_options.html#GT}
MN (/datum_options.html#MN}
DHQ (/datum_options.html#DHQ}
Value
5.41
4.68
2.80
2.78
2.71
0.92
0.00
0.18
-3.33
5.41
3.76
0.74
Description
Mean Higher-High Water
Mean High Water
Mean Tide Level
Mean Sea Level
Mean Diurnal Tide Level
Mean Low Water
Mean Lower-Low Water
North American Vertical Datum of 1988
Station Datum
Great Diurnal Range
Mean Range of Tide
Mean Diurnal High Water Inequality 12
PA2022-0159
Datum Value Description
DLQ (/datum_options.html#DLQ) 0.92 Mean Diurnal Low Water Inequality
HWI (/datum_options.html#HWI) 5.08 Greenwich High Water Interval (in hours)
LWI (/datum_options.html#LWI) 11.15 Greenwich Low Water Interval (in hours)
Max Tide (/datum_options.html#MAXTIDE) 7.67 Highest Observed Tide
Max Tide Date & Time (/datum_options.html#MAXTIDEDT) 01/28/1983 08:06 Highest Observed Tide Date & Time
Min Tide (/datum_options.html#MINTIDE) -2.35 Lowest Observed Tide
Min Tide Date & Time (/datum_options.html#MINTIDEDT) 01/20/1988 16:30 Lowest Observed Tide Date & Time
HAT (/datum_options.html#HAT) 7.18 Highest Astronomical Tide
HAT Date & Time 12/02/1990 16:06 HAT Date and Time
LAT (/datum_options.html#LAT) -1.92 Lowest Astronomical Tide
LAT Date & Time 01/01/1987 00:00 LAT Date and Time
Tidal Datum Analysis Periods
01/01/1980 -12/31/1993
To refer water level heights to NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum of 1988), apply the values located at National Geodetic
Survey (http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/Tidal_Elevation/diagram.jsp?PID=DX1968&EPOCH= 1983-2001 ).
5
Datums for 9410580, NEWPORT BEACH, NEWPORT BAY ENTRAN
All figures in feet relative to MLLW
"MHHW:5:41 ---
DHQ: 0.74
MHW: 4.68 •·------1--
13
PA2022-0159
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