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Home My WebLink About1_CA Air Resources Board, Climate Change Proposed Scoping PlClimate Change Proposed Scoping Plan a amework for change Prepared by the California Air Resources Board for the State of California Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor Linda S. Adams Secretary, California Environmental Protection Agency Mary D. Nichols Chairman, Air Resources Board James N. Goldstene Executive Ocer, Air Resources Board october 2008 Pursuant to AB 32 e California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 i Table of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ESESESES----1111 I.I.I.I. INTRODUCTION: A FRAINTRODUCTION: A FRAINTRODUCTION: A FRAINTRODUCTION: A FRAMEWORK FOR CHANGEMEWORK FOR CHANGEMEWORK FOR CHANGEMEWORK FOR CHANGE............................................................................................................................ 1111 A.A.A.A. Summary of Changes from tSummary of Changes from tSummary of Changes from tSummary of Changes from the Draft Scoping he Draft Scoping he Draft Scoping he Draft Scoping PlanPlanPlanPlan............................................................................................................................................................2222 1. General1. General1. General1. General............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2222 2.2.2.2. Proposed Measures Proposed Measures Proposed Measures Proposed Measures ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3333 B.B.B.B. BackgroundBackgroundBackgroundBackground ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4444 1. Climate Change Policy in California1. Climate Change Policy in California1. Climate Change Policy in California1. Climate Change Policy in California.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4444 2. Assembly Bill2. Assembly Bill2. Assembly Bill2. Assembly Bill 32: The Global Warming Solu32: The Global Warming Solu32: The Global Warming Solu32: The Global Warming Solutions Acttions Acttions Acttions Act............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5555 3. Climate Action Team3. Climate Action Team3. Climate Action Team3. Climate Action Team.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6666 4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategy4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategy4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategy4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategy................................................................................................................................................ 8888 5555. Implementation of the Scoping Plan. Implementation of the Scoping Plan. Implementation of the Scoping Plan. Implementation of the Scoping Plan............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9999 6. Climate Change in California6. Climate Change in California6. Climate Change in California6. Climate Change in California........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................10101010 C.C.C.C. California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 202California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 202California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 202California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 2020 Target0 Target0 Target0 Target................................................................................11111111 II.II.II.II. RECOMMENDED ACTIONSRECOMMENDED ACTIONSRECOMMENDED ACTIONSRECOMMENDED ACTIONS............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15151515 A.A.A.A. The Role of State Government: Setting an ExampleThe Role of State Government: Setting an ExampleThe Role of State Government: Setting an ExampleThe Role of State Government: Setting an Example........................................................................................................................................24242424 B.B.B.B. The Role of Local Government: Essential PartnersThe Role of Local Government: Essential PartnersThe Role of Local Government: Essential PartnersThe Role of Local Government: Essential Partners....................................................................................................................................................26262626 C.C.C.C. Emissions Reduction MeasuresEmissions Reduction MeasuresEmissions Reduction MeasuresEmissions Reduction Measures ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................27272727 1. Cal1. Cal1. Cal1. California Capifornia Capifornia Capifornia Cap----andandandand----Trade PrTrade PrTrade PrTrade Program Linked to Western Climate Initiative Partner ogram Linked to Western Climate Initiative Partner ogram Linked to Western Climate Initiative Partner ogram Linked to Western Climate Initiative Partner JurisdictionsJurisdictionsJurisdictionsJurisdictions ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30303030 2. California Light2. California Light2. California Light2. California Light----Duty Vehicle Greenhouse GasDuty Vehicle Greenhouse GasDuty Vehicle Greenhouse GasDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards Standards Standards Standards............................................................................................................................................................................................................38383838 3. Energy Efficiency3. Energy Efficiency3. Energy Efficiency3. Energy Efficiency ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................41414141 4. Renewables Portfolio Stand4. Renewables Portfolio Stand4. Renewables Portfolio Stand4. Renewables Portfolio Standardardardard ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................44444444 5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................46464646 6. Regional Transportation6. Regional Transportation6. Regional Transportation6. Regional Transportation----Related Greenhouse Gas TargetsRelated Greenhouse Gas TargetsRelated Greenhouse Gas TargetsRelated Greenhouse Gas Targets ................................................................................................................................................................................................47474747 7. Vehicle Effici7. Vehicle Effici7. Vehicle Effici7. Vehicle Efficiency Measuresency Measuresency Measuresency Measures............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................51515151 8. Goods Movement8. Goods Movement8. Goods Movement8. Goods Movement ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................52525252 9. Million Solar Roofs Program9. Million Solar Roofs Program9. Million Solar Roofs Program9. Million Solar Roofs Program ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................53535353 10. Medium/Heavy10. Medium/Heavy10. Medium/Heavy10. Medium/Heavy----Duty VeDuty VeDuty VeDuty Vehicleshicleshicleshicles........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................53535353 11. Industria11. Industria11. Industria11. Industrial Emissionsl Emissionsl Emissionsl Emissions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................54545454 12. High Speed R12. High Speed R12. High Speed R12. High Speed Railailailail....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................56565656 13. Green Building S13. Green Building S13. Green Building S13. Green Building Strategytrategytrategytrategy................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................57575757 14. High Global Warming Potentia14. High Global Warming Potentia14. High Global Warming Potentia14. High Global Warming Potential Gasesl Gasesl Gasesl Gases................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................59595959 15. Recycling an15. Recycling an15. Recycling an15. Recycling and Wasted Wasted Wasted Waste ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................62626262 16.16.16.16. Sustainable Forests Sustainable Forests Sustainable Forests Sustainable Forests ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................63636363 17. Water17. Water17. Water17. Water ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................65656565 18. Agriculture18. Agriculture18. Agriculture18. Agriculture....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................66666666 D.D.D.D. Voluntary Early Actions and ReducVoluntary Early Actions and ReducVoluntary Early Actions and ReducVoluntary Early Actions and Reductionstionstionstions ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................67676767 1. Voluntary Early1. Voluntary Early1. Voluntary Early1. Voluntary Early Action Action Action Action....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................68686868 ii 2. Voluntary Reductions2. Voluntary Reductions2. Voluntary Reductions2. Voluntary Reductions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................68686868 E.E.E.E. Use of AllowancUse of AllowancUse of AllowancUse of Allowances and Revenueses and Revenueses and Revenueses and Revenues............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 69696969 III.III.III.III. EVALUATIONSEVALUATIONSEVALUATIONSEVALUATIONS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 73737373 A.A.A.A. Economic ModEconomic ModEconomic ModEconomic Modelingelingelingeling.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73737373 1. Macro1. Macro1. Macro1. Macro----economic Modeling Resultseconomic Modeling Resultseconomic Modeling Resultseconomic Modeling Results................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................74747474 2. Impact on Specific Busine2. Impact on Specific Busine2. Impact on Specific Busine2. Impact on Specific Business Sectorsss Sectorsss Sectorsss Sectors....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................75757575 3. Household I3. Household I3. Household I3. Household Impactsmpactsmpactsmpacts ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................78787878 4. WCI Econo4. WCI Econo4. WCI Econo4. WCI Economic Analysismic Analysismic Analysismic Analysis............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................79797979 B.B.B.B. Green Green Green Green TechnologyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 80808080 C.C.C.C. CostCostCostCost----EffectEffectEffectEffectivenessivenessivenessiveness ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 84848484 D.D.D.D. Small Business ImpactSmall Business ImpactSmall Business ImpactSmall Business Impact................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 85858585 E.E.E.E. Public Health/Environmental BenePublic Health/Environmental BenePublic Health/Environmental BenePublic Health/Environmental Benefits Analysesfits Analysesfits Analysesfits Analyses ............................................................................................................................................................ 86868686 1. Key Air Quality1. Key Air Quality1. Key Air Quality1. Key Air Quality----Related PubRelated PubRelated PubRelated Public Health Benefitslic Health Benefitslic Health Benefitslic Health Benefits....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................87878787 2. Approach2. Approach2. Approach2. Approach........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................90909090 3. Existing Programs for Air Quality Improvement in C3. Existing Programs for Air Quality Improvement in C3. Existing Programs for Air Quality Improvement in C3. Existing Programs for Air Quality Improvement in Californiaaliforniaaliforniaalifornia........................................................................................................................................................................................90909090 4. Statewide Analysis4. Statewide Analysis4. Statewide Analysis4. Statewide Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................91919191 5. Regional5. Regional5. Regional5. Regional Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example............................................................................................................................................................................................................................92929292 6. Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example6. Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example6. Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example6. Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................92929292 F.F.F.F. Summary of Societal BenSummary of Societal BenSummary of Societal BenSummary of Societal Beneeeefitsfitsfitsfits.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 94949494 1. Energy Diversification1. Energy Diversification1. Energy Diversification1. Energy Diversification........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................94949494 2. Mobility and Shifts in Land Use Patterns2. Mobility and Shifts in Land Use Patterns2. Mobility and Shifts in Land Use Patterns2. Mobility and Shifts in Land Use Patterns............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................95959595 G.G.G.G. CaCaCaCalifornia Environmental Quality Act Functional Equivalent Dlifornia Environmental Quality Act Functional Equivalent Dlifornia Environmental Quality Act Functional Equivalent Dlifornia Environmental Quality Act Functional Equivalent Documentocumentocumentocument................ 95959595 H.H.H.H. Administrative BurdenAdministrative BurdenAdministrative BurdenAdministrative Burden ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 96969696 I.I.I.I. DDDDe Minimis Emission Thresholde Minimis Emission Thresholde Minimis Emission Thresholde Minimis Emission Threshold........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 96969696 IV.IV.IV.IV. IMPLEMENTATION: PUTIMPLEMENTATION: PUTIMPLEMENTATION: PUTIMPLEMENTATION: PUTTING THE PLATING THE PLATING THE PLATING THE PLAN INTO AN INTO AN INTO AN INTO ACTIONCTIONCTIONCTION............................................................................ 99999999 A.A.A.A. Personal ActionPersonal ActionPersonal ActionPersonal Action............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 99999999 B.B.B.B. Public Outreach and EducationPublic Outreach and EducationPublic Outreach and EducationPublic Outreach and Education ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................100100100100 1. Involving the Public and Stakeholders in Measure Development1. Involving the Public and Stakeholders in Measure Development1. Involving the Public and Stakeholders in Measure Development1. Involving the Public and Stakeholders in Measure Development....................................................................................................................................................101101101101 2. Education and Workforce D2. Education and Workforce D2. Education and Workforce D2. Education and Workforce Developmentevelopmentevelopmentevelopment........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................101101101101 3. Small Businesse3. Small Businesse3. Small Businesse3. Small Businessessss ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................104104104104 C.C.C.C. Implementation of the PlanImplementation of the PlanImplementation of the PlanImplementation of the Plan ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................104104104104 D.D.D.D. Tracking and MeaTracking and MeaTracking and MeaTracking and Measuring Progresssuring Progresssuring Progresssuring Progress................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................107107107107 1. Report Card1. Report Card1. Report Card1. Report Card................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................107107107107 2. Track2. Track2. Track2. Tracking Progress by Implementing Agenciesing Progress by Implementing Agenciesing Progress by Implementing Agenciesing Progress by Implementing Agencies................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................108108108108 3. Progress Toward the State Government Target3. Progress Toward the State Government Target3. Progress Toward the State Government Target3. Progress Toward the State Government Target........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................108108108108 4. Mandatory Repo4. Mandatory Repo4. Mandatory Repo4. Mandatory Reporting Regulationrting Regulationrting Regulationrting Regulation....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................108108108108 E.E.E.E. EnforcementEnforcementEnforcementEnforcement........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................109109109109 F.F.F.F. State and Local Permitting ConsiderationsState and Local Permitting ConsiderationsState and Local Permitting ConsiderationsState and Local Permitting Considerations........................................................................................................................................................................................110110110110 G.G.G.G. Role of Local ARole of Local ARole of Local ARole of Local Air Districtsir Districtsir Districtsir Districts ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111111111111 H.H.H.H. Program FunProgram FunProgram FunProgram Fundingdingdingding............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................112112112112 iii V.V.V.V. A VISION A VISION A VISION A VISION FOR THE FUTFOR THE FUTFOR THE FUTFOR THE FUTUREUREUREURE ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................113113113113 A.A.A.A. CollaborationCollaborationCollaborationCollaboration....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................113113113113 1. Working Closely with1. Working Closely with1. Working Closely with1. Working Closely with Key Partners Key Partners Key Partners Key Partners........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................113113113113 2. International2. International2. International2. International ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111111114444 B.B.B.B. ResearchResearchResearchResearch................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................116116116116 1. Unlea1. Unlea1. Unlea1. Unleash the Potential of California’s Universities and Private Sectorsh the Potential of California’s Universities and Private Sectorsh the Potential of California’s Universities and Private Sectorsh the Potential of California’s Universities and Private Sector ........................................................................................................................116116116116 2. Public2. Public2. Public2. Public----Private PartnershipsPrivate PartnershipsPrivate PartnershipsPrivate Partnerships........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................116116116116 C.C.C.C. RRRReducing California’s Emissions Further educing California’s Emissions Further educing California’s Emissions Further educing California’s Emissions Further –––– A Loo A Loo A Loo A Look Forward to 2030k Forward to 2030k Forward to 2030k Forward to 2030........................117117117117 D.D.D.D. ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................120120120120 ACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................122122122122 APPENDICESAPPENDICESAPPENDICESAPPENDICES Appendix A:Appendix A:Appendix A:Appendix A: Assembly BillAssembly BillAssembly BillAssembly Bill 32: T32: T32: T32: The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006he Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006he Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006he Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 Appendix B:Appendix B:Appendix B:Appendix B: List of Acronyms and Glossary List of Acronyms and Glossary List of Acronyms and Glossary List of Acronyms and Glossary Appendix C:Appendix C:Appendix C:Appendix C: Sector Overviews and Emission Reduction StrategiesSector Overviews and Emission Reduction StrategiesSector Overviews and Emission Reduction StrategiesSector Overviews and Emission Reduction Strategies Appendix D:Appendix D:Appendix D:Appendix D: Western Climate Initiative DocumentationWestern Climate Initiative DocumentationWestern Climate Initiative DocumentationWestern Climate Initiative Documentation Appendix E:Appendix E:Appendix E:Appendix E: List of MeasuresList of MeasuresList of MeasuresList of Measures Appendix F:Appendix F:Appendix F:Appendix F: California’s GrCalifornia’s GrCalifornia’s GrCalifornia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inveenhouse Gas Emissions Inveenhouse Gas Emissions Inveenhouse Gas Emissions Inveeeentoryntoryntoryntory Appendix G:Appendix G:Appendix G:Appendix G: Economic AnalysisEconomic AnalysisEconomic AnalysisEconomic Analysis Appendix H:Appendix H:Appendix H:Appendix H: Public Health Benefits AnalysesPublic Health Benefits AnalysesPublic Health Benefits AnalysesPublic Health Benefits Analyses Appendix I:Appendix I:Appendix I:Appendix I: Measure DocumenMeasure DocumenMeasure DocumenMeasure Documenttttationationationation Appendix J:Appendix J:Appendix J:Appendix J: California Environmental Quality Act California Environmental Quality Act California Environmental Quality Act California Environmental Quality Act FunctionFunctionFunctionFunctional Equivalent Doal Equivalent Doal Equivalent Doal Equivalent Doccccumentumentumentument Proposed Scoping Plan Executive Summary ES-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARYEXECUTIVE SUMMARY On September 27, 2006, Governor Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Núñez, Chapter 488, Statutes of 2006). The event marked a watershed moment in California’s history. By requiring in law a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, California set the stage for its transition to a sustainable, clean energy future. This historic step also helped put climate change on the national agenda, and has spurred action by many other states. The California Air Resources Board (ARB or Board) is the lead agency for implementing AB 32, which set the major milestones for establishing the program. ARB met the first milestones in 2007: developing a list of discrete early actions to begin reducing greenhouse gas emissions, assembling an inventory of historic emissions, establishing greenhouse gas emission reporting requirements, and setting the 2020 emissions limit. ARB must develop a Scoping Plan outlining the State’s strategy to achieve the 2020 greenhouse gas emissions limit. This Proposed Scoping Plan, developed by ARB in coordination with the Climate Action Team (CAT), proposes a comprehensive set of actions designed to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions in California, improve our environment, reduce our dependence on oil, diversify our energy sources, save energy, create new jobs, and enhance public health. It will be presented to the Board for approval at its meeting in December 2008. The measures in the Scoping Plan approved by the Board will be developed over the next two years and be in place by 2012. Reduction GoalsReduction GoalsReduction GoalsReduction Goals This plan calls for an ambitious but achievable reduction in California’s carbon footprint. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels means cutting approximately 30 percent from business-as-usual emission levels projected for 2020, or about 15 percent from today’s levels. On a per-capita basis, that means reducing our annual emissions of 14 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent for every man, woman and child in California down to about 10 tons per person by 2020. This challenge also presents a magnificent opportunity to transform California’s economy into one that runs on clean and sustainable technologies, so that all Californians are able to enjoy their rights in the future to clean air, clean water, and a healthy and safe environment. Significant progress can be made toward the 2020 goal relying on existing technologies and improving the efficiency of energy use. A number of solutions are “off the shelf,” and many – especially investments in energy conservation and efficiency – have proven economic benefits. Other solutions involve improving our state’s infrastructure, transitioning to cleaner and more secure sources of energy, and adopting 21st century land use planning and development practices. Executive Summary Proposed Scoping Plan ES-2 A Clean Energy FutureA Clean Energy FutureA Clean Energy FutureA Clean Energy Future Getting to the 2020 goal is not the end of the State’s effort. According to climate scientists, California and the rest of the developed world will have to cut emissions by 80 percent from today’s levels to stabilize the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and prevent the most severe effects of global climate change. This long range goal is reflected in California Executive Order S-3-05 that requires an 80 percent reduction of greenhouse gases from 1990 levels by 2050. Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent will require California to develop new technologies that dramatically reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and shift into a landscape of new ideas, clean energy, and green technology. The measures and approaches in this plan are designed to accelerate this necessary transition, promote the rapid development of a cleaner, low carbon economy, create vibrant livable communities, and improve the ways we travel and move goods throughout the state. This transition will require close coordination of California’s climate change and energy policies, and represents a concerted and deliberate shift away from fossil fuels toward a more secure and sustainable future. This is the firm commitment that California is making to the world, to its children and to future generations. Making the transition to a clean energy future brings with it great opportunities. With these opportunities, however, also come challenges. As the State moves ahead with the development and implementation of policies to spur this transition, it will be necessary to ensure that they are crafted to not just cut greenhouse gas emissions and move toward cleaner energy sources, but also to ensure that the economic and employment benefits that will accompany the transition are realized in California. This means that particular attention must be paid to fostering an economic environment that promotes and rewards California-based investment and development of new technologies and that adequate resources are devoted to building and maintaining a California-based workforce equipped to help make the transition. A Public ProcessA Public ProcessA Public ProcessA Public Process Addressing climate change presents California with a challenge of unprecedented scale and scope. Success will require the support of Californians up and down the state. At every step of the way, we have endeavored to engage the public in the development of this plan and our efforts to turn the tide in the fight against global warming. In preparing the Draft Scoping Plan, ARB and CAT subgroups held dozens of workshops, workgroups, and meetings on specific technical issues and policy measures. Since the release of the draft plan in late June, we have continued our extensive outreach with workshops and webcasts throughout the state. Hundreds of Californians showed up to share their thoughts about the draft plan, and gave us their suggestions for improving it. We’ve received thousands of postcards, form letters, emails, and over 1,000 unique comments posted to our website or sent by mail. All told, more than 42,000 people commented on the draft Plan. Proposed Scoping Plan Executive Summary ES-3 ARB catalogued and publicly posted all the comments we received. In many instances, we engaged experts and staff at our partner agencies for additional evaluation of comments and suggestions. This plan reflects the input of Californians at every level. Our partners at other State agencies, in the legislature, and at the local government level have provided key input. We’ve met with members of community groups to address environmental justice issues, with representatives of California’s labor force to ensure that good jobs accompany our transition to a clean energy future, and with representatives of California’s small businesses to ensure that this vital part of our state’s economic engine flourishes under this plan. We’ve heeded the advice of public health and environmental experts throughout the state to design the plan so that it provides valuable co-benefits in addition to cutting greenhouse gases. We’ve also worked with representatives from many of California’s leading businesses and industries to craft a plan that works in tandem with the State’s efforts to continue strong economic growth. In short, we’ve heard from virtually every sector of California’s society and economy, reflecting the fact that the plan will touch the life of almost every Californian in some way. Proposed Scoping Plan RecommendationsProposed Scoping Plan RecommendationsProposed Scoping Plan RecommendationsProposed Scoping Plan Recommendations The recommendations in this plan were shaped by input and advice from ARB’s partners on the Climate Action Team, as well as the Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (EJAC), the Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC), and the Market Advisory Committee (MAC). Like the Draft Scoping Plan, the strength of this plan lies in the comprehensive array of emission reduction approaches and tools that it recommends. Key elements of California’s recommendations for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 include: · Expanding and strengthening existing energy efficiency programs as well as building and appliance standards; · Achieving a statewide renewables energy mix of 33 percent; · Developing a California cap-and-trade program that links with other Western Climate Initiative partner programs to create a regional market system; · Establishing targets for transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions for regions throughout California, and pursuing policies and incentives to achieve those targets; · Adopting and implementing measures pursuant to existing State laws and policies, including California’s clean car standards, goods movement measures, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard; and Executive Summary Proposed Scoping Plan ES-4 · Creating targeted fees, including a public goods charge on water use, fees on high global warming potential gases, and a fee to fund the administrative costs of the State’s long term commitment to AB 32 implementation. After Board approval of this plan, the measures in it will be developed and adopted through the normal rulemaking process, with public input. Key ChangesKey ChangesKey ChangesKey Changes This plan is built upon the same comprehensive approach to achieving reductions as the draft plan. However, as a result of the extensive public comment we received, this plan includes a number of general and measure-specific changes. The key changes and additions follow. Additional Reports and SupplementsAdditional Reports and SupplementsAdditional Reports and SupplementsAdditional Reports and Supplements 1. Economic and Public Health Evaluations: This plan incorporates an evaluation of the economic and public health benefits of the recommended measures. These analyses follow the same methodology used to evaluate the Draft Scoping Plan.1 2. CEQA Evaluation: This plan includes an evaluation of the potential environmental impacts of the Proposed Scoping Plan under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).2 Programmatic ChangesProgrammatic ChangesProgrammatic ChangesProgrammatic Changes 1. Margin of Safety for Uncapped Sectors: The plan provides a ‘margin of safety,’ that is, additional reductions beyond those in the draft plan to account for measures in uncapped sectors that do not, or may not, achieve the estimated reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in this plan. Along with the certainty provided by the cap, this will ensure that the 2020 target is met. 2. Focus on Labor: The plan includes a discussion of issues directly related to California’s labor interests and working families, including workforce development and career technical education. This additional element reflects ARB’s existing activities and expanded efforts by State agencies, such as the Employment Development Department, to ensure that California will have a green technology workforce to address the challenges and opportunities presented by the transition to a clean energy future. 1 Staff will provide an update to the Board to respond to comments received on these analyses. 2 This evaluation is contained in Appendix J. Proposed Scoping Plan Executive Summary ES-5 3. Long Term Trajectory: The plan includes an assessment of how well the recommended measures put California on the long-term reduction trajectory needed to do our part to stabilize the global climate. 4. Carbon Sequestration: The plan describes California’s role in the West Coast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (WESTCARB), a public-private collaboration to characterize regional carbon capture and sequestration opportunities. In addition, the plan expresses support for near-term development of sequestration technology. This plan also acknowledges the important role of terrestrial sequestration in our forests, rangelands, wetlands, and other land resources. 5. Cap-and-Trade Program: The plan provides additional detail on the proposed cap-and-trade program including a discussion regarding auction of allowances, a discussion of the proposed role for offsets, and additional detail on the mechanisms to be developed to encourage voluntary early action. 6. Implementation: The plan provides additional detail on implementation, tracking and enforcement of the recommended actions, including the important role of local air districts. Changes to Specific Measures and ProgramsChanges to Specific Measures and ProgramsChanges to Specific Measures and ProgramsChanges to Specific Measures and Programs 1. Regional Targets: ARB re-evaluated the potential benefits from regional targets for transportation-related greenhouse gases in consultation with regional planning organizations and researchers at U.C. Berkeley. Based on this information, ARB increased the anticipated reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for Regional Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Targets from 2 to 5 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMTCO2E). 2. Local Government Targets: In recognition of the critical role local governments will play in the successful implementation of AB 32, ARB added a section describing this role. In addition, ARB recommended a greenhouse gas reduction goal for local governments of 15 percent below today’s levels by 2020 to ensure that their municipal and community-wide emissions match the State’s reduction target. 3. Additional Industrial Source Measures: ARB added four additional measures to address emissions from industrial sources. These proposed measures would regulate fugitive emissions from oil and gas recovery and transmission activities, reduce refinery flaring, and require control of methane leaks at refineries. We anticipate that these measures will provide 1.5 MMTCO2E of greenhouse gas reductions. Executive Summary Proposed Scoping Plan ES-6 4. Recycling and Waste Re-Assessment: In consultation with the California Integrated Waste Management Board, ARB re-assessed potential measures in the Recycling and Waste sector. As a result of this review, ARB increased the anticipated reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the Recycling and Waste Sector from 1 to 10 MMTCO2E, incorporating measures to move toward high recycling and zero-waste.3 5. Green Building Sector: This plan includes additional technical evaluations demonstrating that green building systems have the potential to reduce approximately 26 MMTCO2E of greenhouse gases. These tools will be helpful in reducing the carbon footprint for new and existing buildings. However, most of these greenhouse gas emissions reductions will already be counted in the Electricity, Commercial/Residential Energy, Water or Waste sectors and are not separately counted toward the AB 32 goal in this plan. 6. High Global Warming Potential (GWP) Mitigation Fee: Currently many of the chemicals with very high Global Warming Potential (GWP)—typically older refrigerants and constituents of some foam insulation products—are relatively inexpensive to purchase. ARB includes in this plan a Mitigation Fee measure to better reflect their impact on the climate. The fee is anticipated to promote the development of alternatives to these chemicals, and improve recycling and removal of these substances when older units containing them are dismantled. 7. Modified Vehicle Reductions: Based on current regulatory development, ARB modified the expected emissions reduction of greenhouse gases from the Heavy- Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (Aerodynamic Efficiency) measure and the Tire Inflation measure. The former measure is now expected to achieve 0.9 MMTCO2E while the latter is now expected to achieve 0.4 MMTCO2E. 8. Discounting Low Carbon Fuel Standard Reductions: ARB modified the expected emission reductions from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard to reflect overlap in claimed benefits with California’s clean car law (the Pavley greenhouse gas vehicle standards). This has the result of discounting expected reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard by approximately 10 percent. A A A A BBBBalanced and alanced and alanced and alanced and Comprehensive ApproachComprehensive ApproachComprehensive ApproachComprehensive Approach Meeting the goals of AB 32 will require a coordinated set of strategies to reduce emissions throughout the economy. These strategies will fit within the comprehensive tracking, 3 Research to help quantify these greenhouse gas emissions reductions is continuing, so only 1 MMTCO2E of these reductions are currently counted toward the AB 32 goal in this plan. Additional tons will be considered part of the safety margin. Proposed Scoping Plan Executive Summary ES-7 reporting, and enforcement framework that is already being developed and implemented. By 2020, a hard and declining cap will cover 85 percent of California’s greenhouse gas emissions, helping to ensure that we meet our reduction targets on time. AB 32 lays out a number of important factors that have helped to guide the development of this plan and will continue to be considered as regulations are developed over the next few years. Some of the key criteria that have and will be further considered are: cost- effectiveness; overall societal benefits like energy diversification and public health improvements; minimization of leakage; and impacts on specific sectors like small business and disproportionately impacted communities. The comprehensive approach in the plan reflects a balance among these and other important factors and will help to ensure that California meets its greenhouse gas reduction targets in a way that promotes and rewards innovation, is consistent with and helps to foster economic growth, and delivers improvements to the environment and public health. Many of the measures in this plan complement and reinforce one another. For instance, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which reduces the carbon intensity of transportation fuels sold in California, will work in tandem with technology-forcing regulations designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks. Improvements in land use and the ways we grow and build our communities will further reduce emissions from the transportation sector. Many of the measures also build on highly successful long-standing practices in California— such as energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy resources—that can be accelerated and expanded. Increasing the amount of energy we get from renewable energy sources, including placing solar arrays and solar water heaters on houses throughout California, will be supported by an increase in building standards for energy efficiency. Other measures address the transport and treatment of water throughout the state, reduce greenhouse gas emissions that come from ships in California’s ports, and promote changes to agricultural and forestry practices. There are also measures designed to safely reduce or recover a range of very potent greenhouse gases – refrigerants and other industrial gases – that contribute to global warming at a level many times greater per ton emitted than carbon dioxide. Many of the measures in this plan are designed to take advantage of the economic and innovation-related benefits that market-based compliance strategies can provide. Particularly in light of current economic uncertainty, it is important to ensure that California’s climate policies be designed to promote and take advantage of economic opportunities while also cutting greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, the cap-and-trade program creates an opportunity for firms to seek out cost-effective emission reduction strategies and provides an incentive for technological innovation. California’s clean car standards, which require manufacturers to meet annual average levels of greenhouse gas emissions for all cars they sell in California, also offer flexibility to help ensure compliance. Under California’s clean car standards, manufacturers who exceed compliance standards are permitted to bank credits for future use or sell them to other manufacturers. These types of compliance options will be key in ensuring that we are able to meet our reduction targets in a cost-effective manner. Executive Summary Proposed Scoping Plan ES-8 Working with the Western Climate InitiativeWorking with the Western Climate InitiativeWorking with the Western Climate InitiativeWorking with the Western Climate Initiative California is working closely with six other states and four Canadian provinces in the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) to design a regional greenhouse gas emissions reduction program that includes a cap-and-trade approach. California’s participation in WCI creates an opportunity to provide substantially greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from throughout the region than could be achieved by California alone. The larger scope of the program also expands the market for clean technologies and helps avoid leakage, that is, the shifting of emissions from sources within California to sources outside the state. The WCI partners released the recommended design for a regional cap-and-trade program in September 2008.4 ARB embraces the WCI effort, and will continue to work with WCI partners. The creation of a robust regional trading system can complement the other policies and measures included in this plan, and provide the means to achieve the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions needed from a wide range of sectors as cost-effectively as possible. California’s Economy, Environment, and Public HealthCalifornia’s Economy, Environment, and Public HealthCalifornia’s Economy, Environment, and Public HealthCalifornia’s Economy, Environment, and Public Health The approaches in this plan are designed to maximize the benefits that can accompany the transition to a clean energy economy. California has a long and successful track record of implementing environmental policies that also deliver economic benefits. This plan continues in that tradition. ABABABAB 32323232: Evaluating the Economic Effects: Evaluating the Economic Effects: Evaluating the Economic Effects: Evaluating the Economic Effects The economic analysis of this plan indicates that implementation of the recommended strategies to address global warming will create jobs and save individual households money.5 The analysis also indicates that measures in the plan will position California to move toward a more secure, sustainable future where we invest heavily in energy efficiency and clean technologies. The economic analysis indicates that implementation of that forward-looking approach also creates more jobs and saves individual households more money than if California stood by and pursued an unacceptable course of doing nothing at all to address our unbridled reliance on fossil fuels. Specifically, analysis of the Proposed Scoping Plan indicates that projected economic benefits in 2020 compared to the business-as-usual scenario include: · Increased economic production of $33 billion · Increased overall gross state product of $7 billion · Increased overall personal income by $16 billion · Increased per capita income of $200 4 Details of the WCI recommendation are provided in Appendix D. 5 See Appendix G. Proposed Scoping Plan Executive Summary ES-9 · Increased jobs by more than 100,000 Furthermore, the results of the economic analysis may underestimate the economic benefits of the plan since the models that were used do not account for savings that result from the flexibility provided under market-based programs. ABABABAB 32323232: : : : The Environmental and Public Health Costs of InactionThe Environmental and Public Health Costs of InactionThe Environmental and Public Health Costs of InactionThe Environmental and Public Health Costs of Inaction A key factor that was not weighed in the overall economic analysis is the potential cost of doing nothing. When these costs are taken into account, the benefits associated with implementing a comprehensive plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions become even clearer. As a state, California is particularly vulnerable to the costs associated with unmitigated climate change. A summary report from the California Climate Change Center notes that a warming California climate would generate more smoggy days by contributing to ozone formation while also fostering more large brush and forest fires. Continuing increases in global greenhouse gas emissions at business-as-usual rates would result, by late in the century, in California losing 90 percent of the Sierra snow pack, sea level rising by more than 20 inches, and a three to four times increase in heat wave days. These impacts will translate into real costs for California, including flood damage and flood control costs that could amount to several billion dollars in many regions such as the Central Valley, where urbanization and limited river channel capacity already exacerbate existing flood risks.6 Water supply costs due to scarcity and increased operating costs would increase as much as $689 million per year by 2050.7 ARB analysis shows that due to snow pack loss, California’s snow sports sector would be reduced by $1.4 billion (2006 dollars) annually by 2050 and shed 14,500 jobs; many other sectors of California’s economy would suffer as well. Failing to address climate change also carries with it the risk of substantial public health costs, primarily as a result of rising temperatures. Sustained triple-digit heat waves increase the health risk for several segments of the population, especially the elderly. But higher average temperatures will also increase the interactions of smog- causing chemicals with sunlight and the atmosphere to produce higher volumes of toxic byproducts than would otherwise occur. In the 2006 report to the Governor from the California Climate Center, it was reported that global increases in temperature will lead to increased concentrations and emissions of harmful pollutants 6 A Summary Report from: California Climate Change Center. Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California. Document No. CEC-500-2006-077. July 2006. http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006publications/CEC- 500-2006-077/CEC-500-2006-077.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008) 7 A Report from: California Climate Change Center. Climate Warming and Water Supply Management in California. Document No. CEC-500-2005-195-SF. March 2006. pp.13-14 http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-500-2005-195/CEC-500-2005-195-SF.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008). Executive Summary Proposed Scoping Plan ES-10 in California.8 Some cities in California are disproportionately susceptible to temperature increases since they already have elevated pollution levels and are subject to the heat-island effect that reduces nighttime cooling, allowing heat to build up and magnify the creation of additional harmful pollution. Low-income communities are disproportionately impacted by climate change, lacking the resources to avoid or adapt to these impacts. For example, low-income residents are less likely to have access to air conditioning to prevent heat stroke and death in heat waves. For California, then, taking action with other regions and nations to help mitigate the impacts of climate change will help slow temperature rise. This in turn will likely result in fewer premature deaths from respiratory and heat-related causes, and many thousands fewer hospital visits and days of illness. California cannot avert the impacts of global climate change by acting alone. We can, however, take a national and international leadership role in this effort by demonstrating that taking firm and reasoned steps to address global warming can actually help spur economic growth. ABABABAB 32323232: Providing Savings for House: Providing Savings for House: Providing Savings for House: Providing Savings for Households and Businesses holds and Businesses holds and Businesses holds and Businesses This plan builds upon California’s thirty-year track record of pioneering energy efficiency programs. Many of the measures in the plan will deliver significant gains in energy efficiency throughout the economy. These gains, even after increases in per unit energy costs are taken into account, will help deliver annual savings of between $400 and $500 on average by 2020 for households, including low-income households. Businesses, both large and small, will benefit too. By 2020, the efficiency measures in the plan will decrease overall energy expenditures for businesses even after taking into account projected rises in per unit energy costs. Since small businesses spend a greater proportional share of revenue on energy-related costs, they are likely to benefit the most. Furthermore, businesses throughout the state will benefit from the overall economic growth that is projected to accompany implementation of AB 32 between now and 2020. Similar savings are projected in the transportation sector. By reducing greenhouse gas pollution from more efficient and alternatively-fueled cars and trucks under California’s Clean Car law (the Pavley greenhouse gas standards), consumers save on operating costs through reduced fuel use. Although cars will be marginally more expensive, owners will be paid back with savings over the lifetime of the car, and the average new car buyer will have an extra $30 each month for other expenditures. Current estimates indicate that consumer savings in 2020 for California’s existing clean car standards will be over $12 billion. These savings give Californians the ability to invest their dollars in other sectors of the state’s economy. 8 A Report from: California Climate Change Center. Scenarios of Climate Change in California: An Overview. Document No. CEC-500-2005-186-SF. February 2006. http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-500- 2005-186/CEC-500-2005-186-SF.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008) Proposed Scoping Plan Executive Summary ES-11 ABABABAB 32323232: Driving Investment and Job Growth: Driving Investment and Job Growth: Driving Investment and Job Growth: Driving Investment and Job Growth Addressing climate change also provides a strong incentive for investment in California. Our leadership in environmental and energy efficiency policy has already helped attract a large and growing share of the nation’s venture capital investment in green technologies. Since AB 32 was signed into law, venture capital investment in California has skyrocketed. In the second quarter of 2008 alone, California dominated world investment in clean technology venture capital, receiving $800 million of the global total of $2 billion.9 These investments in building a new clean tech sector also translate directly into job growth. A study by U.C. Berkeley’s Energy and Resources Group and Goldman School of Public Policy found that investments in green technologies produce jobs at a higher rate than investments in comparable conventional technologies.10 And the National Venture Capital Association estimates that each $100 million in venture capital funding helps create 2,700 jobs, $500 million in annual revenues for two decades and many indirect jobs.11 ABABABAB 32323232: Improving Public Health: Improving Public Health: Improving Public Health: Improving Public Health The public health analysis conducted for this Plan indicates that cutting greenhouse gases will also provide a wide range of additional public health and environmental benefits. By 2020, the economic value alone of the additional air-quality related benefits is projected to be on the order of $2.2 billion. Our analysis indicates that implementing the Proposed Scoping Plan will result in a reduction of 15 tons per day of combustion-generated soot (PM 2.5) and 61 tons per day of oxides of nitrogen (precursors to smog). These reductions in harmful air pollution would provide the following estimated health benefits in 2020, above and beyond those projected to be achieved as a result of California’s other existing public health protection and improvement efforts: · An estimated 400 premature deaths statewide will be avoided · Almost 11,000 incidences of asthma and lower respiratory symptoms will be avoided · 67,000 work loss days will be avoided 9 Press Release from Cleantech Network LLC, Cleantech Venture Investment Reaches Record of $2 Billion in 2008. July 08, 2008. http://cleantech.com/about/pressreleases/011008.cfm (accessed October 12, 2008) 10 Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory. Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate? Energy and Resources Group/Goldman School of Public Policy at University of California, Berkeley. April 13, 2004. http://rael.berkeley.edu/old-site/renewables.jobs.2006.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 11 Report prepared for the National Venture Capital Association. Venture Impact 2004: Venture Capital Benefits to the U.S. Economy. Prepared by: Global Insight. June 2004. http://www.globalinsight.com/publicDownload/genericContent/07-20-04_fullstudy.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) Executive Summary Proposed Scoping Plan ES-12 In addition to the quantified health benefits, our analysis also indicates that implementation of the measures in the plan will deliver a range of other public health benefits. These include health benefits associated with local and regional transportation-related greenhouse gas targets that will facilitate greater use of alternative modes of transportation such as walking and bicycling. These types of moderate physical activities reduce many serious health risks including coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension and obesity.12 Furthermore, as specific measures are developed, ARB and public health experts will work together to ensure that they are designed with an eye toward capturing a broad range of public health co-benefits. The results of both the economic and public health analyses are clear: guiding California toward a clean energy future with reduced dependence on fossil fuels will grow our economy, improve public health, protect the environment and create a more secure future built on clean and sustainable technologies. State LeState LeState LeState Leadershipadershipadershipadership California is committed to once again lead and support a pioneering effort to protect the environment and improve public health while maintaining a vibrant economy. Every agency, department and division will bring climate change considerations into its policies, planning and analysis, building and expanding current efforts to green its fleet and buildings, and managing its water, natural resources, and infrastructure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In all these efforts, California is exercising a leadership role in global action to address climate change. It is also exemplifying the essential role states play as the laboratories of innovation for the nation. As California has done in the past in addressing emissions that caused smog, the State will continue to develop innovative programs that benefit public health and improve our environment and quality of life. Moving Beyond 2020Moving Beyond 2020Moving Beyond 2020Moving Beyond 2020 AB 32 requires a return to 1990 emission levels by 2020. The Proposed Scoping Plan is designed to achieve that goal. However, 2020 is by no means the end of California’s journey to a clean energy future. In fact, that is when many of the strategies laid out in this plan will just be kicking into high gear. Take, for example, the regional transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions targets. In order to achieve the deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions we will need beyond 2020 it will be necessary to significantly change California’s current land use and transportation planning policies. Although these changes will take time, getting started now will help put California on course to cut statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent in 2050 as called for by Governor Schwarzenegger. 12 Appendix H contains a reference list of studies documenting the public health benefits of alternative transportation. Proposed Scoping Plan Executive Summary ES-13 Similarly, measures like the cap-and-trade program, energy efficiency programs, the California clean car standards, and the renewables portfolio standard will all play central roles in helping California meet its 2020 reduction requirements. Yet, these strategies will also figure prominently in California’s efforts beyond 2020. Some of these measures, like energy efficiency programs and the renewables portfolio standard, have already delivered greenhouse gas emissions reduction benefits that will expand over time. Others, like the cap- and-trade program, will put in place a foundation on which to build well into the future. All of these measures, and many others in the plan, will ensure that California meets its 2020 target and is positioned to continue its international role as leader in the fight against global warming to 2050 and beyond. A Shared ChallengeA Shared ChallengeA Shared ChallengeA Shared Challenge Californians are already responding to the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Over 120 California cities and counties have signed on to the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement13 and many have established offices of climate change and are developing comprehensive plans to reduce their carbon footprint. Well over 300 companies, municipalities, organizations and corporations are members of the California Climate Action Registry, reporting their greenhouse gas emissions on an annual basis. Many other businesses and corporations are making climate change part of their fiscal and strategic planning. ARB encourages these initial efforts and has set in place a policy to support and encourage other voluntary early reductions. Successful implementation of AB 32 will depend on a growing commitment by a majority of companies to include climate change as an integral part of their planning and operations. Individuals and households throughout the state will also have to take steps to consider climate change at home, at work and in their recreational activities. To support this effort, this plan includes a comprehensive statewide outreach program to provide businesses and individuals with the widest range of information so they can make informed decisions about reducing their carbon footprints. Californians will not have to wait for decades to see the benefits of a low carbon economy. New homes can achieve a near zero-carbon footprint with better building techniques and existing technologies, such as solar arrays and solar water heaters. Many older homes can be retrofitted to use far less energy than at present. A new generation of vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, is poised to appear in dealers’ showrooms, and the development of the infrastructure to support hydrogen fuel cell cars continues. Cities and new developments will be more walkable, public transport will improve, and high-speed rail will give travelers a new clean transportation option. 13 Mayors Climate Protection Center. List of Participating Mayors. http://www.usmayors.org/climateprotection/list.asp (accessed October 12, 2008) Executive Summary Proposed Scoping Plan ES-14 That world is just around the corner. What lies beyond is even more exciting. Where will California be in 2050? By harnessing the ingenuity and creativity of our society and sparking the imagination of the next generation of Californians, California will make the transition to a clean-energy, low-carbon society and become a healthier, cleaner and more sustainable place to live. This plan charts a course toward that future. ARB invites comment and input from the broadest array of the public and stakeholders as we move forward over the next two years to develop the individual measures, and develop the policies that will move us toward sustainable clean energy and away from fossil fuels. Your participation will help craft the mechanisms and measures to make this plan a reality. This is California’s plan and together, we need to make the necessary changes to address the greatest environmental challenge we face. As Governor Schwarzenegger stated when he signed AB 32 into law two years ago, “We owe our children and we owe our grandchildren. We simply must do everything in our power to fight global warming before it is too late.” Proposed Scoping Plan I. Introduction 1 I.I.I.I. INTRODUCTION: A Framework for ChangeINTRODUCTION: A Framework for ChangeINTRODUCTION: A Framework for ChangeINTRODUCTION: A Framework for Change California strengthened its commitment to address climate change when Governor Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Núñez, Chapter 488, Statutes of 2006). This groundbreaking legislation represents a turning point for California and makes it clear that a business-as-usual approach toward greenhouse gas emissions is no longer acceptable. In light of the need for strong and immediate action to counter the growing threat of global warming, AB 32 sets forth an aggressive timetable for achieving results. AB 32 embodies the idea that California can continue to grow and flourish while reducing its greenhouse gas emissions and continuing its long-standing efforts to achieve healthy air, and protect and enhance public health. Achieving these goals will involve every sector of the state’s $1.7 trillion economy and touch the life of every Californian. As the lead agency for implementing AB 32, the California Air Resources Board (ARB or the Board) released a Draft Scoping Plan in June 2008, which laid out a comprehensive statewide plan to reduce California’s greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. This Proposed Scoping Plan builds upon that draft. This plan sets forth a comprehensive reduction strategy that combines market-based regulatory approaches, other regulations, voluntary measures, fees, policies, and programs that will significantly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and help make our state cleaner, more efficient and more secure. The Board will consider this Proposed Scoping Plan for approval at its December 2008 meeting. Once approved by the Board, the Scoping Plan will provide specific direction for the State’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction program. The recommended measures will be developed into regulations over the next two years, to go into effect by January 1, 2012. As specific measures in the plan are developed, we will update and adjust our regulatory proposals as necessary to ensure that they reflect any new information, additional analyses, new technologies or other factors that emerge during the process. ARB has conducted a transparent, wide-ranging public process to develop the Proposed Scoping Plan, including numerous meetings, workshops, and seminars with stakeholders. Substantial input on the development of the Proposed Scoping Plan came from formal advisory committees, meetings with industrial and business groups, non-profit organizations and members of the public, as well as written comments on the Draft Scoping Plan. ARB will continue its outreach activities to seek ongoing public input and will encourage early and continued involvement in the implementation of the plan from all Californians. I. Introduction Proposed Scoping Plan 2 A.A.A.A. Summary of Changes from the Draft Scoping PlanSummary of Changes from the Draft Scoping PlanSummary of Changes from the Draft Scoping PlanSummary of Changes from the Draft Scoping Plan On June 26, 2008, ARB released the Draft Scoping Plan and requested public comment and input, while continuing to analyze the measures and their impact on California. Since the Draft Scoping Plan release, ARB has received almost 1,000 unique written comments as well as hundreds of verbal comments at workshops and in meetings. Taking into account that some written comments were submitted by multiple individuals, all told more than 42,000 people have commented on the draft plan. ARB has also completed detailed economic and public health evaluations of its recommendations. This Proposed Scoping Plan reflects changes made to the draft plan as a result of the comments and input received and the additional analysis performed. The Proposed Plan does not incorporate modifications as a result of comments on the economic and public health supplements. ARB is evaluating those comments and will propose any necessary modifications to the Board. The key changes between the Draft Scoping Plan and the Proposed Scoping Plan are summarized below. The Proposed Scoping Plan includes the following modifications: 1. 1. 1. 1. GeneralGeneralGeneralGeneral · Incorporates economic and public health analyses of the Proposed Scoping Plan. These analyses show that the recommendations in the Proposed Scoping Plan will have a net positive impact on both the economy and public health. These analyses follow the same methodology used to evaluate the Draft Scoping Plan. ARB is continuing to consider comments on the methodology and assumptions used in these analyses. Staff will provide an update to the Board as needed to respond to comments received on these analyses. · Provides a “margin of safety” by recommending additional greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies to account for measures in uncapped sectors that do not achieve the greenhouse gas emissions reductions estimated in the Proposed Scoping Plan. Along with the certainty provided by the cap, this will ensure that the 2020 target is met. · Expands the discussion of workforce development, education, and labor to more fully reflect existing activities and the role of other state agencies in ensuring an adequate green technology workforce. · Assesses how well the recommended measures put California on the long-term reduction trajectory needed to do our part to stabilize the global climate. · Describes California’s role in the West Coast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (WESTCARB), a public-private collaboration to characterize regional carbon capture and sequestration opportunities, and expresses support for near- term advancement of the technology and monitoring of its development. Acknowledges the important role of terrestrial sequestration. · Provides greater detail on the mechanisms to be developed to encourage voluntary early action. · Provides additional detail on implementation, tracking and enforcement of the recommended actions, including the important role of local air districts. Proposed Scoping Plan I. Introduction 3 · Evaluates the potential environmental impacts of the Proposed Scoping Plan under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). This evaluation is contained in Appendix J. 2. 2. 2. 2. Proposed MeasuresProposed MeasuresProposed MeasuresProposed Measures · Provides greater detail on the proposed cap-and-trade program including more detail on the allocation and auction of allowances, and clarification of the proposed role of offsets. · Re-evaluates the potential benefits from regional targets for transportation-related greenhouse gases in consultation with regional planning organizations and researchers at U.C. Berkeley. Based on this information, ARB increased the anticipated greenhouse gas emissions reductions for Regional Transportation- Related Greenhouse Gas Targets from 2 to 5 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMTCO2E). · In recognition of the importance of local governments in the successful implementation of AB 32, adds a section describing this role and recommends a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for local government municipal and community-wide emissions of a 15 percent reduction from current levels by 2020 to parallel the State’s target. · Adds four measures to address emissions from industrial sources. These proposed measures would regulate fugitive emissions from oil and gas recovery and gas transmission activities, reduce refinery flaring, and remove the methane exemption for refineries. These proposed measures are anticipated to provide 1.5 MMTCO2E of greenhouse gas reductions in 2020. · In consultation with the California Integrated Waste Management Board, re- assesses potential measures in the Recycling and Waste sector. As a result of this assessment, ARB increased the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that can ultimately be anticipated from the Recycling and Waste Sector from 1 to 10 MMTCO2E, recommending measures to move toward high recycling and zero- waste. Research to help quantify these greenhouse gas emissions is continuing, so only 1 MMTCO2E of these reductions is currently counted towards the AB 32 goal in this plan. · Estimates the potential reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the Green Building sector. Green building systems have the potential to reduce approximately 26 MMTCO2E of greenhouse gas emissions. Since most of these emissions reductions are counted in the Electricity, Commercial/Residential Energy, Water or Waste sectors, emission reductions in the Green Building sector are not separately counted toward the AB 32 goal. · Adds a High Global Warming Potential (GWP) Mitigation Fee measure to ensure that the climate impact of these gases is reflected in their price to encourage reduced use and end-of-life losses, as well as the development of alternatives. · Reduces the expected greenhouse gas emissions reduction from the Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction (Aerodynamic Efficiency) measure and the Tire Inflation measure based on ongoing regulatory I. Introduction Proposed Scoping Plan 4 development. The Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction (Aerodynamic Efficiency) measure is now expected to achieve 0.9 MMTCO2E and the Tire Inflation measure is now expected to achieve 0.4 MMTCO2E. · Modifies the expected reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard to account for potential overlap of benefits with the Pavley greenhouse gas vehicle standards. ARB discounted the expected emission reductions from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard by 10 percent. · After further evaluation, moves the Heavy-Duty Truck Efficiency measure to the Goods Movement measure. ARB expects that market dynamics will provide an inducement to improve heavy-duty truck efficiency, and reductions in greenhouse gases in the future. ARB would consider pursuing direct requirements to reduce greenhouse gases if truck efficiency does not improve in the future. B.B.B.B. BackgroundBackgroundBackgroundBackground 1. 1. 1. 1. Climate Change Policy in California Climate Change Policy in California Climate Change Policy in California Climate Change Policy in California California first addressed climate change in 1988 with the passage of AB 4420 (Sher, Chapter 1506, Statutes of 1988). This bill directed the California Energy Commission (CEC) to study global warming impacts to the state and develop an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions sources. In 2000, SB 1771 (Sher, Chapter 1018, Statutes of 2000) established the California Climate Action Registry to allow companies, cities and government agencies to voluntarily record their greenhouse gas emissions in anticipation of a possible program that would allow them to be credited for early reductions. In 2001, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” The following year, AB 1493 (Pavley, Chapter 200, Statutes of 2002) was signed into law, requiring ARB to develop regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles, light-duty trucks and non-commercial vehicles sold in California. Recognizing the value of regional partners in addressing climate change, the governors of California, Washington, and Oregon created the West Coast Global Warming Initiative in 2003 with provisions for the states to work together on climate change-related programs. Two years later Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-3-05, calling for the State to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. The 2020 goal was established to be an aggressive, but achievable, mid-term target, and the 2050 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal represents the level scientists believe is necessary to reach levels that will stabilize climate. Proposed Scoping Plan I. Introduction 5 In 2006, SB 1368 (Perata, Chapter 598, Statutes of 2006) created greenhouse gas performance standards for new long-term financial investments in base-load electricity generation serving California customers. This law is designed to help spur the transition toward cleaner energy in California by placing restrictions on the ability of utilities to build new carbon-intensive plants or enter into new contracts with high carbon sources of electricity. Expiration of existing utility long-term contracts with coal plants will reduce greenhouse gas emissions when such generation is replaced by lower greenhouse gas-emitting resources. These reductions will reduce the need for utilities to submit allowances to comply with the cap-and-trade program. 2. Assembly Bill2. Assembly Bill2. Assembly Bill2. Assembly Bill 32: The Global Warming Solutions Act32: The Global Warming Solutions Act32: The Global Warming Solutions Act32: The Global Warming Solutions Act In 2006, the Legislature passed and Governor Schwarzenegger signed AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, which set the 2020 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal into law. It directed ARB to begin developing discrete early actions to reduce greenhouse gases while also preparing a Scoping Plan to identify how best to reach the 2020 limit. The reduction measures to meet the 2020 target are to become operative by 2012. AB 32 includes a number of specific requirements for ARB: · Identify the statewide level of greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 to serve as the emissions limit to be achieved by 2020 (Health and Safety Code (HSC) §38550). In December 2007, the Board approved the 2020 emission limit of 427 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2E) of greenhouse gases. · Adopt a regulation requiring the mandatory reporting of greenhouse gas emissions (HSC §38530). In December 2007, the Board adopted a regulation requiring the largest industrial sources to report and verify their greenhouse gas emissions. The reporting regulation serves as a solid foundation to determine greenhouse gas emissions and track future changes in emission levels. · Identify and adopt regulations for Discrete Early Actions that could be enforceable on or before January 1, 2010 (HSC §38560.5). The Board identified nine Discrete Early Action measures including potential regulations affecting landfills, motor vehicle fuels, refrigerants in cars, port operations and other sources in 2007. The Board has already approved two Discrete Early Action measures (ship electrification at ports and reduction of high GWP gases in consumer products). Regulatory development for the remaining measures is ongoing. · Ensure early voluntary reductions receive appropriate credit in the implementation of AB 32 (HSC §38562(b)(3)). In February 2008, the Board approved a policy statement encouraging voluntary early actions and establishing a procedure for project proponents to submit quantification methods to be evaluated by ARB. ARB, along with California’s local air districts and the California Climate Action Registry, is working to implement this program. Voluntary programs are discussed further in Chapter II and in Chapter IV. I. Introduction Proposed Scoping Plan 6 · Convene an Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (EJAC) to advise the Board in developing the Scoping Plan and any other pertinent matter in implementing AB 32 (HSC §38591). The EJAC has met 12 times since early 2007, providing comments on the proposed Early Action measures and the development of the Scoping Plan, and submitted its comments and recommendations on the draft Scoping Plan in October 2008. ARB will continue to work with The EJAC as AB 32 is implemented. · Appoint an Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC) to provide recommendations for technologies, research and greenhouse gas emission reduction measures (HSC §38591). After a year-long public process, The ETAAC submitted a report of their recommendations to the Board in February 2008. The ETAAC also reviewed and provided comments on the Draft Scoping Plan. 3. Climate Action Team3. Climate Action Team3. Climate Action Team3. Climate Action Team In addition to establishing greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for California, Executive Order S-3-05 established the Climate Action Team (CAT) for State agencies in 2005. Chaired by the Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA), the CAT has helped to direct State efforts on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and engage key State agencies including ARB. The Health and Human Services Agency, represented by the Department of Public Health, is the newest member of the CAT. Based on numerous public meetings and the review of thousands of submitted comments, the CAT released its first report in March 2006, identifying key carbon reduction recommendations for the Governor and Legislature. In April 2007, the CAT released a second report, “Proposed Early Actions to Mitigate Climate Change in California,” which details numerous strategies that should be initiated prior to the 2012 deadline for other climate action regulations and efforts. AB 32 recognizes the essential role of the CAT in coordinating overall climate policy. AB 32 does not affect the existing authority of other state agencies, and in addition to Climate Action Team California Environmental Protection Agency Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency Health and Human Services Agency Resources Agency State and Consumer Services Agency Governor’s Office of Planning and Research Air Resources Board California Energy Commission California Public Utilities Commission Department of Food and Agriculture Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Department of General Services Department of Parks and Recreation Department of Transportation Department of Water Resources Integrated Waste Management Board State Water Resources Control Board Proposed Scoping Plan I. Introduction 7 ARB, many state agencies will be responsible for implementing the measures and strategies in this plan. The CAT is central to the success of AB 32, which requires an unprecedented level of cooperation and coordination across State government. The CAT provides the leadership for these efforts and helps ARB work closely with our state partners on the development and implementation of the strategies in the Proposed Scoping Plan. There are currently 12 subgroups within the CAT – nine that address specific economic sectors, and three that were formed to analyze broad issues related to implementing a multi-sector approach to greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts. The CAT sector-based subgroups include: Agriculture, Cement, Energy, Forest, Green Buildings, Land Use, Recycling and Waste Management, State Fleet, and Water-Energy. The members of these subgroups are drawn from departments that work with or regulate industries in the sector. ARB participated in each of the subgroups. All of the subgroups held public meetings and solicited public input, and many had multiple public workshops. In March 2008, the subgroups collectively submitted more than 100 greenhouse gas emissions reduction measures to ARB for consideration in the Draft Scoping Plan. Many of those recommendations are reflected in this plan, and a number of them focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy production and use. Through the Energy Subgroup the California Energy Commission (CEC) and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) are conducting a joint proceeding to provide recommendations on how best to address electricity and natural gas in the implementation of AB 32, including evaluation of how the Electricity sector might best participate in a cap-and-trade program. The two Commissions forwarded interim recommendations to ARB in March 2008 that supported inclusion of the Electricity sector in a multi-sector cap-and-trade program, and measures to increase the penetration of energy efficiency programs in both buildings and appliances and to increase renewable energy sources. The two Commissions have developed a second proposed decision that was released in September 2008. This proposed decision provides more detailed recommendations that relate to the electricity and natural gas sectors. Because implementation of the Scoping Plan will require careful coordination with the State’s energy policy, ARB will continue working closely with the two Commissions on this important area during the implementation of the recommendations in the Scoping Plan. There are also three subgroups which are not sector-specific. The Economic Subgroup reviewed cost information associated with potential measures that were included in the 2006 CAT report with updates reflected in the report, “Updated Macroeconomic Analysis of Climate Strategies,” in October 2007. This report provided an update of the macroeconomic analysis presented in the March 2006 CAT report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature. The Research Subgroup coordinates climate change research and identifies opportunities for collaboration, and is presently working on a report to the Governor. The State Operations Subgroup I. Introduction Proposed Scoping Plan 8 has been created to work with State agencies to create a statewide plan to reduce State government’s greenhouse gas emissions by a minimum of 30 percent by 2020. In the first quarter of 2009, the Climate Action Team will release a report on its activities outside of its involvement in the development of the Proposed Scoping Plan. The CAT report will focus on several cross-cutting topics with which members of the CAT have been involved since the publication of the 2006 CAT report. The topics to be covered include research on the physical and consequent economic impacts of climate change as well as climate change research coordination efforts among the CAT members. There will also be an update on the important climate change adaptation efforts led by the Resources Agency and a discussion of cross- cutting issues related to environmental justice concerns. The CAT report will be released in draft form and will be available for public review in December 2008. 4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction 4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction 4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction 4. Development of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction StrategyStrategyStrategyStrategy In developing the Proposed Scoping Plan, ARB considered the State’s existing climate change policy initiatives and the Early Action measures identified by the Board. Several advisory groups were formed to assist ARB in developing the Proposed Scoping Plan, including the Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (EJAC), the Economic and Technology Advancement Committee (ETAAC), and the Market Advisory Committee (MAC). The Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (HSC §38591(a) et seq) advises ARB on development of the Scoping Plan and any other pertinent matter in implementing AB 32. The Board appoints its members, based on nominations received from environmental justice organizations and community groups. The Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee (HSC §38591(d)) includes members who are appointed by the Board based on expertise in fields of business, technology research and development, climate change, and economics. The ETAAC advises ARB on activities that will facilitate investment in, and implementation of, technological research and development opportunities, funding opportunities, partnership development, technology transfer opportunities, and related areas that lead to reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Members of the Market Advisory Committee (created under Executive Order S-20-06) were appointed by the Secretary of CalEPA based on their expertise in economics and climate change. The MAC advised ARB on the design of a cap-and- trade program for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Along with input from the advisory groups, ARB received submittals to a public solicitation for ideas, and numerous comments during public workshops, workgroup meetings, community meetings, and meetings with stakeholder groups. ARB held numerous workshops on the Draft Scoping Plan and convened workgroup meetings focused on program design and economic analysis. ARB and other involved State Proposed Scoping Plan I. Introduction 9 agencies also held sector-specific technical workshops to look in greater detail at potential emissions reduction measures. ARB also looked outward to examine programs at the regional, national and international levels. ARB met with and learned from experts from the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, the United Nations, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, the RECLAIM program, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). After the release of the Draft Scoping Plan, ARB conducted workshops and community meetings around the state to solicit public input. The Environmental Justice Advisory Committee and the Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee held meetings to review and provide additional comments on the Draft Scoping Plan. In addition, ARB held meetings with numerous stakeholder groups to discuss specific greenhouse gas emissions reduction measures. As described before, ARB has reviewed and considered both the written comments and the verbal comments received at the public workshops and meetings with stakeholders. This input, along with additional analysis, has ultimately shaped this Proposed Scoping Plan. 5. I5. I5. I5. Implementation of the Scoping Planmplementation of the Scoping Planmplementation of the Scoping Planmplementation of the Scoping Plan The foundation of the Proposed Scoping Plan’s strategy is a set of measures that will cut greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 30 percent by the year 2020 as compared to business as usual and put California on a course for much deeper reductions in the long term. In addition to pursuing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, other strategies to mitigate climate change, such as carbon capture and storage (underground geologic storage of carbon dioxide), should also be further explored. And, as greenhouse gas reduction measures are implemented, we will continually evaluate how these measures can be optimized to also help deliver a broad range of public health benefits. Most of the measures in this Proposed Scoping Plan will be implemented through the full rulemaking processes at ARB or other agencies. These processes will provide opportunity for public input as the measures are developed and analyzed in more detail. This additional analysis and public input will likely provide greater certainty about the estimates of costs and expected greenhouse gas emission reductions, as well as the design details that are described in this Proposed Scoping Plan. With the exception of Discrete Early Actions, which will be in place by January 1, 2010, other regulations are expected to be adopted by January 1, 2011 and take effect at the beginning of 2012. Some of the measures in the plan may deliver more emission reductions than we expect; others less. It is also very likely that we will figure out new and better ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions as we move forward. New technologies will no doubt be developed, and new ideas and strategies will emerge. The Scoping Plan puts I. Introduction Proposed Scoping Plan 10 California squarely on the path to a clean energy future but it also recognizes that adjustments will probably need to occur along the way and that as additional tools become available they will augment, and in some cases perhaps even replace, existing approaches. California will not be implementing the measures in this Plan in a vacuum. Significant new action on climate policy is likely at the federal level and California and its partners in the Western Climate Initiative are working together to create a regional effort for achieving significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions throughout the western United States and Canada. California is also developing a state Climate Adaptation Strategy to reduce California’s vulnerability to known and projected climate change impacts. ARB and other State agencies will continue to monitor, lead and participate in these broader activities. ARB will adjust the measures described here as necessary to ensure that California’s program is designed to facilitate the development of integrated and cost-effective regional, national, and international greenhouse gas emissions reduction programs. (HSC §38564) 6. Climate Change in California6. Climate Change in California6. Climate Change in California6. Climate Change in California The impacts of climate change on California and its residents are occurring now. Of greater concern are the expected future impacts to the state’s environment, public health and economy, justifying the need to sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions. In the Findings and Declarations for AB 32, the Legislature found that: “The potential adverse impacts of global warming include the exacerbation of air quality problems, a reduction in quality and supply of water to the state from the Sierra snowpack, a rise in sea levels resulting in the displacement of thousands of coastal businesses and residences, damage to the marine ecosystems and the natural environment, and an increase in the incidences of infectious diseases, asthma, and other health-related problems.” The Legislature further found that global warming would cause detrimental effects to some of the state’s largest industries, including agriculture, winemaking, tourism, skiing, commercial and recreational fishing, forestry, and the adequacy of electrical power. The impacts of global warming are already being felt in California. The Sierra snowpack, an important source of water supply for the state, has shrunk 10 percent in the last 100 years. It is expected to continue to decrease by as much as 25 percent by 2050. World-wide changes are causing sea levels to rise – about 8 inches of increase has been recorded at the Golden Gate Bridge over the past 100 years – threatening low coastal areas with inundation and serious damage from storms. Proposed Scoping Plan I. Introduction 11 C.C.C.C. California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 2020 TargetCalifornia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 2020 TargetCalifornia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 2020 TargetCalifornia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the 2020 Target California is the fifteenth largest emitter of greenhouse gases on the planet, representing about two percent of the worldwide emissions. Although carbon dioxide is the largest contributor to climate change, AB 32 also references five other greenhouse gases: methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). Many other gases contribute to climate change and would also be addressed by measures in this Proposed Scoping Plan. Figure 1 and Table 1 show 2002 to 2004 average emissions and estimates for projected emissions in 2020 without any greenhouse gas reduction measures (business-as-usual case). The 2020 business-as-usual forecast does not take any credit for reductions from measures included in this Proposed Plan, including the Pavley greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles, full implementation of the Renewables Portfolio Standard beyond current levels of renewable energy, or the solar measures. Additional information about the assumptions in the 2020 forecast is provided in Appendix F. Figure 1: California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2002-2004 Average)14 Transportation, 38% Electricity, 23% Industry, 20% Recycling and Waste, 1% High GWP, 3% Agriculture, 6% Commercial and Residential, 9% As seen in Figure 1, the Transportation sector – largely the cars and trucks that move goods and people – is the largest contributor with 38 percent of the state’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Table 1 shows that if we take no action, greenhouse gas emissions in the 14 Air Resources Board. Greenhouse Gas Inventory. http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/inventory.htm (accessed October 12, 2008) I. Introduction Proposed Scoping Plan 12 Transportation sector are expected to grow by approximately 25 percent by 2020 (an increase of 46 MMTCO2E). The Electricity and Commercial/Residential Energy sector is the next largest contributor with over 30 percent of the statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Although electricity imported into California accounts for only about a quarter of our electricity, imports contribute more than half of the greenhouse gas emissions from electricity because much of the imported electricity is generated at coal-fired power plants. AB 32 specifically requires ARB to address emissions from electricity sources both inside and outside of the state. California’s Industrial sector includes refineries, cement plants, oil and gas production, food processors, and other large industrial sources. This sector contributes almost 20 percent of California’s greenhouse gas emissions, but the sector’s emissions are not projected to grow significantly in the future. The sector termed recycling and waste management is a unique system, encompassing not just emissions from waste facilities but also the emissions associated with the production, distribution and disposal of products throughout the economy. Although high global warming potential (GWP) gases are a small contributor to historic greenhouse gas emissions, levels of these gases are projected to increase sharply over the next several decades, making them a significant source by 2020. The Forest sector is unique in that forests both emit greenhouse gases and uptake carbon dioxide (CO2). While the current inventory shows forests as a sink of 4.7 MMTCO2E, carbon sequestration has declined since 1990. For this reason, the 2020 projection assumes no net emissions from forests. The agricultural greenhouse gas emissions shown are largely methane emissions from livestock, both from the animals and their waste. Emissions of greenhouse gases from fertilizer application are also important contributors from the Agricultural sector. ARB has begun a research program to better understand the variables affecting these emissions. Opportunities to sequester CO2 in the Agricultural sector may also exist; however, additional research is needed to identify and quantify potential sequestration benefits. In December 2007, ARB approved a greenhouse gas emissions target for 2020 equivalent to the state’s calculated greenhouse gas emissions level in 1990. ARB developed the 2020 target after extensive technical work and a series of stakeholder meetings. The 2020 target of 427 MMTCO2E requires the reduction of 169 MMTCO2E, or approximately 30 percent, from the state’s projected 2020 emissions of 596 MMTCO2E (business-as-usual) and the reduction of 42 MMTCO2E, or almost 10 percent, from 2002-2004 average emissions. Proposed Scoping Plan I. Introduction 13 Table 1: 2002-2004 Average Emissions and 2020 Projected Emissions (Business-as-Usual)15 (MMTCO2E) Sector 2002-2004 Average Emissions Projected 2020 Emissions [BAU] Transportation 179.3 225.4 Electricity 109.0 139.2 Commercial and Residential 41.0 46.7 Industry 95.9 100.5 Recycling and Waste 5.6 7.7 High GWP 14.8 46.9 Agriculture 27.7 29.8 Forest Net Emissions -4.7 0.0 Emissions Total 469 596 Figure 2 presents California’s historic greenhouse gas emissions in a different way – based not on the source of the emissions, but on the end use. This chart highlights the importance of addressing on-road transportation sources of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the significant contribution from the heating, cooling, and lighting of buildings. Figure 2: California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions – A Demand-Side View – On-Road Vehicles 36% Oil and Gas Extraction and Refining 14% Residential Buildings 14% Commercial Buildings 8% Industrial Manufacturing, Construction and Mining 12% Agriculture/Food Processing 9% Cement Plants 2% High GWP Gases 3% Other Transportation 2% 15 Ibid. I. Introduction Proposed Scoping Plan 14 The data shown in this section provide two ways to look at California’s greenhouse gas profile – emissions-based and end use (demand side)-based. While it is possible to illustrate the inventory many different ways, no chart or graph can fully display how diverse economic sectors fit together. California’s economy is a web of activity where seemingly independent sectors and subsectors operate interdependently and often synergistically. For example, reductions in water use reduce the need to pump water, directly lowering electricity use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, reducing the generation of waste reduces the need to transport the waste to landfills – lowering transportation emissions and, possibly, landfill methane emissions. Increased recycling or re-use reduces the carbon emissions embedded in products – it takes less energy to make a soda can made from recycled aluminum than from virgin feedstock. The measures included in this Proposed Scoping Plan are identified discretely, but many impact each other, and changes in one measure can directly overlap and have a ripple effect on the efficacy and success of other measures. The measures and policies outlined in this Plan reflect these interconnections, and highlight the need for all agencies to work collaboratively to implement the Scoping Plan. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 15 II.II.II.II. RECOMMENDED ACTIONSRECOMMENDED ACTIONSRECOMMENDED ACTIONSRECOMMENDED ACTIONS Achieving the goals of AB 32 in a cost-effective manner will require a wide range of approaches. Every part of California’s economy needs to play a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ARB’s comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions inventory lists emission sources ranging from the largest refineries and power plants to small industrial processes and farm livestock. The recommended measures were developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from key sources and activities while improving public health, promoting a cleaner environment, preserving our natural resources, and ensuring that the impacts of the reductions are equitable and do not disproportionately impact low-income and minority communities. These measures also put the state on a path to meet the long-term 2050 goal of reducing California’s greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels. This trajectory is consistent with the reductions that are needed globally to help stabilize the climate. While the scale of this effort is considerable, our experience with cultural and technological changes makes California well-equipped to handle this challenge. ARB evaluated a comprehensive array of approaches and tools to achieve these emission reductions. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the wide variety of sources can best be accomplished though a cap-and-trade program along with a mix of complementary strategies that combine market-based regulatory approaches, other regulations, voluntary measures, fees, policies, and programs. ARB will monitor implementation of these measures to ensure that the State meets the 2020 limit on greenhouse gas emissions. An overall limit on greenhouse gas emissions from most of the California economy – the “capped sectors” – will be established by the cap-and-trade program. (The basic elements of the cap-and-trade program are described later in this chapter.) Within the capped sectors, some of the reductions will be accomplished through direct regulations such as improved building efficiency standards and vehicle efficiency measures. Whatever additional reductions are needed to bring emissions within the cap are accomplished through price incentives posed by emissions allowance prices. Together, direct regulation and price incentives assure that emissions are brought down cost-effectively to the level of the overall cap. ARB also recommends specific measures for the remainder of the economy – the “uncapped sectors.” II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 16 Key elements of California’s recommendations for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 include: · Expanding and strengthening existing energy efficiency programs as well as building and appliance standards; · Achieving a statewide renewables energy mix of 33 percent; · Developing a California cap-and-trade program that links with other Western Climate Initiative partner programs to create a regional market system; · Establishing targets for transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions for regions throughout California and pursuing policies and incentives to achieve those targets; · Adopting and implementing measures pursuant to existing State laws and policies, including California’s clean car standards, goods movement measures, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard; and · Creating targeted fees, including a public goods charge on water use, fees on high global warming potential gases, and a fee to fund the administrative costs of the State’s long-term commitment to AB 32 implementation. The recommended greenhouse gas emissions reduction measures are listed in Table 2 and are summarized in Section C below. The total reduction for the recommended measures slightly exceeds the 169 MMTCO2E of reductions estimated in the Draft Scoping Plan. This is the net effect of adding several measures and adjusting the emission reduction estimates for some other measures. The 2020 emissions cap in the cap-and-trade program is preserved at the same level as in the Draft Scoping Plan (365 MMTCO2E). The measures listed in Table 2 lead to emissions reductions from sources within the capped sectors (146.7 MMTOCO2E) and from sources or sectors not covered by cap-and-trade (27.3 MMTCO2E). As mentioned, within the capped sectors the reductions derive both from direct regulation and from the incentives posed by allowance prices. Further discussion of how the cap-and-trade program and the complementary measures work together to achieve the overall target is provided below. Table 2 also lists several other recommended measures which will contribute toward achieving the 2020 statewide goal, but whose reductions are not (for various reasons including the potential for double counting) additive with the other measures. Those measures and the basis for not including their reductions are further discussed in Section C. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 17 Table 2: Recommended Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures Recommended Reduction Measures Reductions Counted Towards 2020 Target (MMTCO2E) ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF CAP- AND-TRADE PROGRAM AND COMPLEMENTARY MEASURES 146.7 California Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards · Implement Pavley standards · Develop Pavley II light-duty vehicle standards 31.7 Energy Efficiency · Building/appliance efficiency, new programs, etc. · Increase CHP generation by 30,000 GWh · Solar Water Heating (AB 1470 goal) 26.3 Renewables Portfolio Standard (33% by 2020) 21.3 Low Carbon Fuel Standard 15 Regional Transportation-Related GHG Targets16 5 Vehicle Efficiency Measures 4.5 Goods Movement · Ship Electrification at Ports · System-Wide Efficiency Improvements 3.7 Million Solar Roofs 2.1 Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicles · Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (Aerodynamic Efficiency) · Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Hybridization 1.4 High Speed Rail 1.0 Industrial Measures (for sources covered under cap-and-trade program) · Refinery Measures · Energy Efficiency & Co-Benefits Audits 0.3 Additional Reductions Necessary to Achieve the Cap 34.4 ESTIMATED REDUCTIONS FROM UNCAPPED SOURCES/SECTORS 27.3 High Global Warming Potential Gas Measures 20.2 Sustainable Forests 5.0 Industrial Measures (for sources not covered under cap and trade program) · Oil and Gas Extraction and Transmission 1.1 Recycling and Waste (landfill methane capture) 1.0 TOTAL REDUCTIONS COUNTED TOWARDS 2020 TARGET 174 Other Recommended Measures Estimated 2020 Reductions (MMTCO2E) State Government Operations 1-2 Local Government Operations TBD Green Buildings 26 Recycling and Waste (other measures) 9 Water Sector Measures 4.8 Methane Capture at Large Dairies 1.0 16 This number represents an estimate of what may be achieved from local land use changes. It is not the SB 375 regional target. ARB will establish regional targets for each Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) region following the input of the Regional Targets Advisory Committee and a public consultation process with MPOs and other stakeholders per SB 375. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 18 The development of a California cap-and-trade program that links with other Western Climate Initiative partner programs to create a regional market system is a central feature of the overall recommendation. This program will lead to prices on greenhouse gas emissions, prices that will spur reductions in greenhouse gas emissions throughout the California economy, through application of existing technologies and through the creation of new technological and organizational options. The rationale for combining a cap-and-trade program with complementary measures was outlined by the Market Advisory Committee, which noted the following in its recommendations to the ARB: Before setting out the key design elements of a cap-and-trade program it is important to explain how the proposed emissions trading approach relates to other policy measures. The following considerations seem especially relevant: · The emissions trading program puts a cap on the total emissions generated by facilities covered under the system. Because a certain number of emissions allowances are put in circulation in each compliance period, this approach provides a measure of certainty about the total quantity of emissions that will be released from entities covered under the program. · The market price of emissions allowances yields an enduring price signal for GHG emissions across the economy. This price signal provides incentives for the market to find new ways to reduce emissions. · By itself, a cap-and-trade program alone will not deliver the most efficient mitigation outcome for the state. There is a strong economic and public policy basis for other policies that can accompany an emissions trading system. 17 The Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC) also addressed the benefits associated with a combined policy of cap and trade and complementary measures. A declining cap can send the right price signals to shape the behavior of consumers when purchasing products and services. It would also shape business decisions on what products to manufacture and how to manufacture them. Establishing a price for carbon and other GHG emissions can efficiently tilt decision-making toward cleaner alternatives. This cap and trade approach (complemented by technology-forcing performance standards) avoids the danger of having government or other centralized decision-makers choose specific technologies, thereby limiting the flexibility to allow other options to emerge on a level playing field. 17 Recommendations of the Market Advisory Committee to the California Air Resources Board. Recommendations for Designing a Greenhouse Gas Cap-and-Trade System for California. June 30, 2007. p. 19. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/publications/market_advisory_committee/2007-06- 29_MAC_FINAL_REPORT.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008) Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 19 If markets were perfect, such a cap and trade system would bring enough new technologies into the market and stimulate the necessary industrial RD&D to solve the climate change challenge in a cost effective manner. As the Market Advisory Committee notes, however, placing a price on GHG emissions addresses only one of many market failures that impede solutions to climate change. Additional market barriers and co-benefits would not be addressed if a cap and trade system were the only state policy employed to implement AB 32. Complementary policies will be needed to spur innovation, overcome traditional market barriers (e.g., lack of information available to energy consumers, different incentives for landlords and tenants to conserve energy, different costs of investment financing between individuals, corporations and the state government, etc.) and address distributional impacts from possible higher prices for goods and services in a carbon-constrained world.18 The Environmental Justice Advisory Committee (EJAC) also supports an approach that includes a price on carbon along with complementary measures. Although the EJAC recommends that the carbon price be established through a carbon fee rather than through a cap-and-trade program, they recognize the importance of mutually supportive policies: California should establish a three-pronged approach for addressing greenhouse gases: (1) adopting standards and regulations; (2) providing incentives; and (3) putting a price on carbon via a carbon fee. The three pieces support one another and no single prong can work without equally robust support from the others.19 In keeping with the rationale outlined above, ARB finds that it is critically important to include complementary measures directed at emission sources that are included in the cap- and-trade program. These measures are designed to achieve cost-effective emissions reductions while accelerating the necessary transition to the low-carbon economy required to meet the 2050 target: · The already adopted Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards are designed to accelerate the introduction of low-greenhouse gas emitting vehicles, reduce emissions and save consumers money at the pump. · The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is a flexible performance standard designed to accelerate the availability and diversity of low-carbon fuels by taking into consideration the full life-cycle of greenhouse gas emissions. The LCFS will reduce emissions and make our economy more resilient to future petroleum price volatility. · The Regional Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Targets provide incentives for channeling investment into integrated development patterns and transportation 18 Recommendations of the Economic and Technical Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC), Final Report. Technologies and Policies to Consider for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in California. February 14, 2008. pp. 1-4 http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/etaac/ETAACFinalReport2-11-08.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 19 Recommendations and Comments of the Environmental Justice Advisory Committee on the Implementation of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32) on the Draft Scoping Plan. October 2008. p. 10. http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ejac/ejac_comments_final.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 20 infrastructure, through improved planning. Improved planning and the resulting development are essential for meeting the 2050 emissions target. · In the Energy sector, measures will provide better information and overcome institutional barriers that slow the adoption of cost-effective energy efficiency technologies. Enhanced energy efficiency programs will provide incentives for customers to purchase and install more efficient products and processes, and building and appliance standards will ensure that manufacturers and builders bring improved products to market. · The Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) promotes multiple objectives, including diversifying the electricity supply. Increasing the RPS to 33 percent is designed to accelerate the transformation of the Electricity sector, including investment in the transmission infrastructure and system changes to allow integration of large quantities of intermittent wind and solar generation. · The Million Solar Roofs Initiative uses incentives to transform the rooftop solar market by driving down costs over time. · The Goods Movement program is primarily intended to achieve criteria and toxic air pollutant reductions but will provide important greenhouse gas benefits as well. · Similar to the light duty vehicle greenhouse gas standards, the heavy duty and medium duty vehicle measures and the additional light duty vehicle efficiency measures aim to achieve cost-effective reductions of GHG emissions and save fuel. Each of these complementary measures helps to position the California economy for the future by reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of products, processes, and activities. When combined with the absolute and declining emissions limit of the cap-and-trade program, these policies ensure that we cost-effectively achieve our greenhouse gas emissions goals and set ourselves on a path towards a clean low carbon future. Figure 3 illustrates how the recommended emission reduction measures together put California on a path toward achieving the 2020 goal. The left hand column in Figure 3 shows total projected business as usual emissions in 2020, by sector (596 MMTCO2E). The right hand column shows 2020 emissions after applying the Scoping Plan recommended reduction measures (422 MMTCO2E). The measures that accomplish the needed reductions are listed in between the columns. As Figure 3 shows, there are a total of 27.3 MMTCO2E in reductions from uncapped sectors, and 146.7 MMTCO2E in reductions from capped sectors. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 21 Figure 3: California Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2020 and Recommended Reduction Measures 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Business-as-Usual Scoping Plan Transportation Recycling & waste Industry Natural gas Electricity Agriculture High GWP Recycling & waste Capped sectors Agriculture High GWPReductions from capped sectors: Total reductions of 146.7 MMT (including 112.3 MMT from specified measures): Pavley standards: 31.7 MMT Energy efficiency: 26.3 MMT 33% RPS: 21.3 MMT LCFS: 15.0 MMT Regional targets: 5.0 MMT Vehicle efficiency: 4.5 MMT Goods movement: 3.7 MMT Million solar roofs: 2.1 MMT Heavy/medium veh: 1.4 MMT Industrial measures: 0.3 MMT High speed rail: 1.0 MMT Reductions from uncapped sectors: Total reductions of 27.3 MMT Industrial measures: 1.1 MMT High GWP measures: 20.2 MMT Recycling & waste: 1.0 MMT Sustainable forests: 5.0 MMT Reduction Measures Total Emissions 422 MMTCO2E Cap is set at 365 MMT Total Emissions: 596 MMTCO2E MMTCO2E The recommended cap-and-trade program provides covered sources with the flexibility to pursue low cost reductions. It is important to recognize, however, that other recommended measures also provide compliance flexibility. As is often the case with ARB regulations, many of the measures establish performance standards and allow regulated entities to determine how best to achieve the required emission level. This approach rewards innovation and allows facilities to take advantage of the best way to meet the overarching environmental objective. Table 3 lists the proposed measures that include compliance flexibility or market mechanisms. This flexibility ranges from the potential for tradable renewable energy credits in the Renewables Portfolio Standard to the incentives to encourage emission reductions in electricity and natural gas efficiency programs to the averaging, banking and trading mechanisms in the Pavley and Low Carbon Fuel Standard programs to a multi-sector cap- and-trade program. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 22 Table 3: Measures With Flexible Market Compliance Features Measure Estimated Reductions Additional Reductions from Capped Sectors 34.4 California Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards (Pavley I & II) 31.7 Renewables Portfolio Standard 21.3 Electricity Efficiency 15.2 Low Carbon Fuel Standard 15.0 Mitigation Fee on High GWP Gases 5.0 Natural Gas Efficiency 4.3 Goods Movement Systemwide Efficiency 3.5 Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicle Hybridization 0.5 Total 130.9 The recommended mix of measures builds on a strong foundation of previous action in California to address climate change and broader environmental issues. The program recommended here relies on implementing existing laws and regulations that were adopted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other policy goals; strengthening and expanding existing programs; implementing the discrete early actions adopted by the Board in 2007; and new measures developed during the Scoping Plan process itself. The mix of measures recommended in this Proposed Plan provides a comprehensive approach to reduce emissions to achieve the 2020 target, and to initiate the transformations required to achieve the 2050 target. The cap-and-trade program and complementary measures will cover about 85 percent of greenhouse gas emissions throughout California’s economy. ARB recognizes that due to several factors, including information discovered during regulatory development, technology maturity, and implementation challenges, actual reductions from individual measures aimed at achieving the 2020 target may be higher or lower than current estimates. The inclusion of many of these emissions within the cap-and- trade program, along with a margin of safety in the uncapped sectors, will help ensure that the 2020 target is met. The combination of approaches provides certainty that the overall program will meet the target despite some degree of uncertainty in the estimates for any individual measure. Additionally, by internalizing the cost of CO2E emissions throughout the economy, the cap-and-trade program supports the complementary measures and provides further incentives for innovation and continuing emissions reductions from energy producers and consumers setting us on a path toward our 2050 goals. Some emissions sources are not currently suitable for inclusion in the cap-and-trade program due to challenges associated with precise measurement, tracking or sector structure. For these emissions sources, ARB is including measures designed to focus on waste management, agriculture, forestry, and certain emissions of high GWP gases, a rapidly growing component of California’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 23 California’s economy is expected to continue to experience robust growth through 2020. Economic modeling, including evaluation of the effects on low-income Californians, shows that the measures included within this Proposed Scoping Plan can be implemented with a net positive effect on California’s long-term economic growth. The evaluation of related public health and environmental benefits of the various measures also shows that implementation will result in not only reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved public health, but also in a beneficial effect on California’s environment. The results of these evaluations are presented in Chapter III. AB 32 includes specific criteria that ARB must consider before adopting regulations for market-based compliance mechanisms to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, and directs the Board, to the extent feasible, to design market-based compliance mechanisms to prevent any increase in the emissions of toxic air contaminants or criteria air pollutants. In the development of regulations that contain market mechanisms, ARB will consider the economic, environmental and public health effects, and the evaluation of potential localized impacts. These results will be used to institute appropriate economic, environmental and public health safeguards. ARB has also designed the recommendation to ensure that reductions will come from throughout the California economy. Transportation accounts for the largest share of California’s greenhouse gas emissions. Accordingly, a large share of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the recommended measures comes from this sector. Measures include the inclusion of transportation fuels in the cap-and-trade program, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels, enforcement of regulations that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, and policies to reduce transportation emissions by changes in future land use patterns and community design as well as improvements in public transportation. In the Energy sector, the recommended measures increase the amount of electricity from renewable energy sources, and improve the energy efficiency of industries, homes and buildings. The inclusion of these sectors and the Industrial sector in the cap-and-trade program provides further assurance that significant cost-effective reductions will be achieved from the sectors that contribute the greatest emissions. Additional energy production from renewable resources may also rely on measures suggested in the Agriculture, Water, and the Recycling and Waste Management Sectors. Other sectors are also called upon to cut emissions. The cap-and-trade program covers industrial sources and natural gas use. The recommended measures would require industrial processes to examine how to lower their greenhouse gas emissions and be more energy efficient, and would require goods movement operations through California’s ports to be more energy efficient. Other measures address waste management, agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the transport and treatment of water throughout the state. Finally, the recommended measures address ways to reduce or eliminate the emissions of high global warming potential gases that, on a per-ton basis, contribute to global warming at a level many times greater than carbon dioxide. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 24 As the Scoping Plan is implemented, ARB and other agencies will coordinate with the Green Chemistry Initiative, particularly in the Green Building and Recycling/Waste sectors. Green Chemistry is a fundamentally new approach to environmental protection that emphasizes environmental protection at the design stage of product and manufacturing processes, rather than focusing on end-of-pipe or end-of-life activities, or a single environmental medium, such as air, water or soil. This new approach will reduce the use of harmful chemicals, generate less waste, use less energy, and, accordingly, will contribute toward California’s greenhouse gas reduction goals. A.A.A.A. The Role of StateThe Role of StateThe Role of StateThe Role of State Government Government Government Government: Setting an Example: Setting an Example: Setting an Example: Setting an Example For many years California State government has successfully incorporated environmental principles in managing its resources and running its business. The Governor has directed State agencies to sharply reduce their building-related energy use and encouraged our State- run pensions to invest in energy efficient and clean technologies.20 The State also has been active in procuring low-emission, alternative fuel vehicles in its large fleet. While State government has already accomplished much to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, it can and must do more. State agencies must lead by example by continuing to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, California State government has established a target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by a minimum of 30 percent below its estimated business-as-usual emissions by 2020 – approximately a 15 percent reduction from current levels. As an owner-operator of key infrastructure, State government has the ability to ensure that the most advanced, cost-effective environmental performance requirements are used in the design, construction, and operation of State facilities. As a purchaser with significant market power, State government has the ability to demand that the products and services it procures contribute positively toward California’s targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as through the efforts of Environmentally Preferable Purchasing. As an investor of more than $400 billion,21 State government has the ability to prioritize low-carbon investments. With more than 350,000 employees, State government is uniquely situated to adopt and implement policies that give State workers the ability to decrease their individual carbon impact, including encouraging siting facilities within communities to enhance balance in jobs and housing, encouraging carpooling, biking, walking, telecommuting, the use of public transit, and the use of alternative work schedules. 20Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order Executive Order S-20-04 on December 14, 2004. This Order contains a number of directives, including a set of aggressive goals for reducing state building energy use and requested the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) and the California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS) to target resource-efficient buildings for real estate investments and commit funds toward clean, efficient and sustainable technologies. 21 CalPERS and CalSTRS are the two largest pension systems in the nation with investments in excess of $400 billion as of August 2008. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 25 Myriad opportunities exist for California State government to operate more efficiently. These opportunities will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also will produce savings for California taxpayers. Initiatives now underway that will contribute to the State government reduction target include the Governor’s Green Building Initiative and the Department of General Services’ efforts to increase the number of fuel-efficient vehicles in the State fleet. Major efforts to expand renewable energy use and divest from coal-fired power plants are currently underway. Together with energy conservation and efficiency strategies on water projects, roadways, parks, and bridges, these efforts all play major roles in reducing the State’s greenhouse gas emissions. State agencies should review their travel practices and make greater use of teleconferencing and videoconferencing to reduce the need for business travel, particularly air travel. State agencies are now examining their policies and operations to determine how they can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. These findings will be instrumental as each cabinet- level agency registers with the California Climate Action Registry (CCAR) to record and report their individual carbon footprints. The Climate Action Team has created a new State Government Operations sub-group that will work closely with the agencies to review the results of their evaluations and the CCAR reports to determine how best to achieve the maximum reductions possible. State agencies must take the lead in driving this low-carbon economy by reducing their own emissions, and also by serving as a catalyst for local government and private sector activity. New “Best Practices” implemented by State agencies can be transferred to other entities within California, the nation, and internationally. By increasing cooperation and coordination across organizational boundaries, State government will maximize the experience and contributions of each agency involved to achieve the 30 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while growing the economy and protecting the environment. State government’s impact on emissions goes far beyond its own buildings, vehicles, projects, and employees. State government casts a sizable “carbon shadow”– that is, the climate change impact of legislative, executive, and financial actions of State agencies that affect Californians now and in the future. For example, the California Energy Commission (CEC) recently initiated a proceeding to consider how to align its permitting process with the State’s greenhouse gas and renewable energy policy goals. ARB intends to work closely with the CEC during this proceeding. New power plants, both fossil-fuel fired and renewable generation, will be a critical part of the state’s electricity mix in coming decades. The investments that are made in this new infrastructure in the next several years will become part of the backbone of the state’s electricity supply for decades to come. This timely investigation will be a critical element of California’s ability to meet the AB 32 emissions reduction target for 2020, the ambitious target set by the Governor for 2050, and also the specific goal of achieving 33 percent renewables in the state’s electricity mix. The Governor’s Office of Planning and Research and the Resources Agency are developing proposed amendments to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines to II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 26 provide guidance on how to address greenhouse gases in CEQA documents. As required by SB 97 (Chapter 185, Statutes of 2007), the amended CEQA guidelines will be adopted by January 1, 2010. In addition, agencies such as the California Labor and Workforce Development Agency, the Business, Transportation and Housing Agency and the newly created Green Collar Jobs Council (AB 3018, Chapter 312, Statutes of 2008) are dedicated to economic development, training, safety, labor relations, and employment development throughout the State. ARB will coordinate with the Council and also with other State agencies to address workforce needs and facilitate a smooth transition to California’s emerging low-carbon economy that maximizes economic development and employment opportunities in California. The State expends funds to provide services to California residents – from preserving our natural resources to building and maintaining infrastructure like roads, bridges and dams. California residents should reap all of the benefits of these projects, including any associated quantifiable and marketable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Because of this, California should retain ownership of these greenhouse gas emissions reductions and use them to promote the goals of AB 32 and other goals of the state. California State government can also lead through example by aligning its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with efforts to protect and improve public health. As a new member of the Climate Action Team, the Department of Public Health will help ensure that measures to combat global warming also incorporate public health protection and improvement strategies. As discussed below, these and many other State leadership efforts can be built upon at the local level as well. B.B.B.B. The Role of Local Government: Essential PartnersThe Role of Local Government: Essential PartnersThe Role of Local Government: Essential PartnersThe Role of Local Government: Essential Partners Local governments are essential partners in achieving California’s goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They have broad influence and, in some cases, exclusive authority over activities that contribute to significant direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions through their planning and permitting processes, local ordinances, outreach and education efforts, and municipal operations. Many of the proposed measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions rely on local government actions. Over 120 California cities have already signed on to the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. In addition, over 30 California cities and counties have committed to developing and implementing Climate Action Plans. Many local governments and related organizations have already begun educating Californians on the benefits of energy efficiency measures, public transportation, solar homes, and recycling. These communities have not only demonstrated courageous leadership in taking initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they are also reaping important co-benefits, including local economic benefits, more sustainable communities, and improved quality of life. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 27 Land use planning and urban growth decisions are also areas where successful implementation of the Scoping Plan relies on local government. Local governments have primary authority to plan, zone, approve, and permit how and where land is developed to accommodate population growth and the changing needs of their jurisdictions. Decisions on how land is used will have large impacts on the greenhouse gas emissions that will result from the transportation, housing, industry, forestry, water, agriculture, electricity, and natural gas sectors. To provide local governments guidance on how to inventory and report greenhouse gas emissions from government buildings, facilities, vehicles, wastewater and potable water treatment facilities, landfill and composting facilities, and other government operations, ARB recently adopted the Local Government Operations Protocol. ARB encourages local governments to use this protocol to track their progress in achieving reductions from municipal operations. ARB is also developing an additional protocol for community emissions. This protocol will go beyond just municipal operations and include emissions from the community as a whole, including residential and commercial activity. These local protocols will play a key role in ensuring that strategies that are developed and implemented at the local level, like urban forestry and greening projects, water and energy efficiency projects, and others, can be appropriately quantified and credited toward California’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to tracking emissions using these protocols, ARB encourages local governments to adopt a reduction goal for municipal operations emissions and move toward establishing similar goals for community emissions that parallel the State commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 15 percent from current levels by 2020. To consolidate climate action resources and aid local governments in their emission reduction efforts, the ARB is developing various tools and guidance for use by local governments, including the next generation of best practices, case studies, a calculator to help calculate local greenhouse gas emissions, and other decision support tools. The recent passage of SB 375 (Steinberg, Chapter 728, Statutes of 2008) creates a process whereby local governments and other stakeholders work together within their region to achieve reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through integrated development patterns, improved transportation planning, and other transportation measures and policies. The implementation of regional transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions targets and SB 375 are discussed in more detail in Section C. C.C.C.C. EmissionEmissionEmissionEmissionssss Reduction Measures Reduction Measures Reduction Measures Reduction Measures The Scoping Plan will build on California’s successful history of balancing effective regulations with economic progress. Several types of measures have been recommended. The plan includes a California cap-and-trade program that will be integrated with a broader regional market to maximize cost-effective opportunities to achieve GHG emissions reductions. The plan also includes transformational measures that are designed to help pave the path toward California’s clean energy future. For example, the Low Carbon Fuel II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 28 Standard (LCFS) is a performance standard with flexible compliance mechanisms that will incent the development of a diverse set of clean, low-carbon transportation fuel options. Similarly, the plan recognizes the importance of local and regional government leadership in ensuring that California’s land use and transportation planning processes are designed to be consistent with efforts to achieve a clean energy future and to protect and enhance public health and safety. The Proposed Scoping Plan also contains a number of targeted measures that are designed to overcome existing barriers to action such as lack of information, lack of coordination, or other regulatory and institutional factors. Energy efficiency is a classic example where cost- effective action often is not taken due to lack of complete information, relatively high initial costs, and mismatches between who pays for and who benefits from efficiency investments. These problems often mean that efficiency measures are not taken that would save money in the long term for small businesses, home owners and renters. While California has a long history of success in implementing regulations and programs to encourage energy efficiency, innovative methods to overcome these economic and information barriers are needed to provide the benefits of increased efficiency to more Californians and to meet our greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. Several of the recommended measures complement each other. For example, the LCFS will provide clean transportation fuel options. The Pavley performance standards help deploy vehicles that can use many of the low-carbon fuels, including advanced biofuels, electricity and hydrogen. The combined operation of both programs will make it more likely that more efficient, less polluting vehicles will use the cleanest possible fuels. In addition, both of these programs will benefit from ARB’s zero-emission vehicle program, which focuses on deployment of plug-in battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles. All of these strategies are expandable beyond 2020, and are needed as vital components to reach the State’s 2050 goal. The cap-and-trade program creates an emissions limit or “cap” on the sectors responsible for the vast majority of California’s greenhouse gas emissions and provides capped sources significant flexibility in how they collectively achieve the reductions necessary to meet the cap. The other measures in these capped sectors provide a clear path toward achieving reductions required by the cap, while simultaneously addressing market barriers and creating the low-carbon energy options needed to achieve our long term climate goals. In the design of the cap-and-trade program, ARB will also evaluate possible ways to include features that complement the other measures, such as consideration of allowance set-asides that could be used to help achieve or exceed the aggressive energy efficiency goals included in this Plan. Both required measures and other cost-effective actions by capped sectors will contribute toward achievement of the cap. For example, increasing energy efficiency will reduce electricity demand, thereby reducing the need for utilities to submit allowances to comply with the cap-and-trade program. In this way, energy efficiency contributes to real reductions toward the cap. Expiration of existing utility long-term contracts with coal plants will reduce GHG emissions when such generation is replaced by renewable generation, coal with carbon sequestration, or natural gas generation, which emits less CO2 per megawatt-hour. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 29 Additionally, measures and other actions that result in reductions in energy demand ‘downstream’ of capped sectors will help achieve the cap. For example, the Pavley vehicle standards, building efficiency standards, and land use planning that contributes to reduced transportation fuel demand will all reduce emissions by reducing the demand for upstream energy production. These downstream entities will further benefit from these reductions by avoiding any costs that would be passed through from a cap-and-trade system. Discrete Early ActionsDiscrete Early ActionsDiscrete Early ActionsDiscrete Early Actions In September 2007, ARB approved a list of nine Discrete Early Actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and is currently in the process of developing regulations and programs based on these measures. Regulations implementing the Discrete Early Action measures must be adopted and in effect by January 1, 2010 (HSC §38560.5 (b)). All the Discrete Early Actions are included in the recommended measures and are shown below in Table 4. Table 4: Anticipated Board Consideration Dates for Discrete Early Actions Discrete Early Action Anticipated Board Consideration Green Ports – Ship Electrification at Ports December 2007 – Adopted Reduction of High GWP Gases in Consumer Products June 2008 – Adopted SmartWay – Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (Aerodynamic Efficiency) December 2008 Reduction of Perfluorocarbons from Semiconductor Manufacturing February 2009 Improved Landfill Gas Capture January 2009 Reduction of HFC-134a from Do-It-Yourself Motor Vehicle Servicing January 2009 SF6 Reductions from the Non-Electric Sector January 2009 Tire Inflation Program March 2009 Low Carbon Fuel Standard March 2009 The following sections describe the recommended measures in this Proposed Scoping Plan. Additional information about these measures is provided in Appendix C. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 30 1. California Cap1. California Cap1. California Cap1. California Cap----andandandand----Trade Program Linked to Trade Program Linked to Trade Program Linked to Trade Program Linked to Western Climate Initiative Partner JurisdictionsWestern Climate Initiative Partner JurisdictionsWestern Climate Initiative Partner JurisdictionsWestern Climate Initiative Partner Jurisdictions Implement a broad-based California cap-and-trade program to provide a firm limit on emissions. Link the California cap–and-trade program with other Western Climate Initiative Partner programs to create a regional market system to achieve greater environmental and economic benefits for California. Ensure California’s program meets all applicable AB 32 requirements for market-based mechanisms. California is working closely with other states and provinces in the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) to design a regional cap-and-trade program that can deliver reductions of greenhouse gas emissions throughout the region. ARB will develop a cap-and-trade program for California that will link with the programs in the other WCI Partner jurisdictions to create a regional cap-and-trade program. The WCI Partner jurisdictions released the program design document on September 23, 2008 (see Appendix D). ARB will continue to work with the WCI Partner jurisdictions to develop and implement the cap-and-trade program. ARB will also design the California program to meet the requirements of AB 32, including the need to consider any potential localized impacts and ensure that reductions are enforceable by the Board. Based on the requirements of AB 32, regulations to implement the cap-and-trade program need to be developed by January 1, 2011, with the program beginning in 2012. This rule development schedule will be coordinated with the WCI timeline for developing a regional cap-and-trade program. Preliminary plans for this rulemaking are described later in this section. A cap-and-trade program sets the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowable for facilities under the cap and allows covered sources, including producers and consumers of energy, to determine the least expensive strategies to comply. The emissions allowed under the cap will be denominated in metric tons of CO2E. The currency will be in the form of allowances which the State will issue based upon the total emissions allowed under the cap during any specific compliance period. Emission allowances can be banked for future use, encouraging early reductions and reducing market volatility. The ability to trade allows facilities to adjust to changing conditions and take advantage of reduction opportunities when those opportunities are less expensive than buying additional emissions allowances. Provisions could be made to allow a limited use of surplus reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that occur outside of the cap. These additional reductions are known as offsets and are discussed further below. In order to be used to meet a source’s compliance obligation, offsets will be subject to stringent criteria and verification procedures to ensure their enforceability and consistency with AB 32 requirements. Appendix C describes the fundamentals of a cap-and-trade program and program design elements. Appendix D contains the WCI Design Recommendations and related background documents. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 31 California CapCalifornia CapCalifornia CapCalifornia Cap----andandandand----Trade Program Trade Program Trade Program Trade Program By providing a firm cap on 85 percent of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, the cap-and-trade regulatory program is an essential component of the overall plan to meet the 2020 target and provides a robust mechanism to achieve the additional reductions needed by 2050. To meet the emissions reduction target under AB 32, the limit on emissions allowed under the cap, plus emissions from uncapped sources, must be no greater than the 2020 emissions goal. By setting a limit on the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted, a well-designed cap- and-trade program will complement other measures for entities within covered sectors. Additionally, starting a cap-and-trade program now will set us on a course to achieve further emissions cuts well beyond 2020 and ensure that California is primed to take advantage of opportunities for linking with other programs, including future federal and international efforts. The proposed cap-and-trade measure phases in the following sectors: Starting in the first compliance period (2012): · Electricity generation, including imports not covered by a WCI Partner jurisdiction · Large industrial facilities that emit over 25,000 metric tons CO2E per year. Starting in the second compliance period (2015): · Upstream treatment of industrial fuel combustion at facilities with emissions at or below 25,000 metric tons CO2E, and all commercial and residential fuel combustion regulated where the fuel enters into commerce · Transportation fuel combustion regulated where the fuel enters into commerce. For some energy-intensive industrial sources such as cement, stringent requirements in California, either through inclusion in a cap-and-trade program or through source- specific regulation, have the potential to create a disadvantage for California facilities relative to out-of-state competitors unless those locations have similar requirements (e.g., through the WCI). If production shifts outside of California in order to operate without being subject to these requirements, emissions could remain unchanged or even increase. This is referred to as “leakage.” AB 32 requires ARB to design measures to minimize leakage. Minimizing leakage will be a key consideration when developing the cap-and-trade regulation and the other AB 32 program measures.22 22 The cement industry is an example of a sector that may be susceptible to this type of leakage, and the Draft Scoping Plan included consideration of a measure to institute an intensity standard at concrete batch plants that would consider this type of life-cycle emissions. ARB will evaluate whether this type of intensity standard could be incorporated into the cap-and-trade program or instituted as a complementary measure during the cap- and-trade rulemaking. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 32 As shown in Table 5, the preliminary estimate of the cap on greenhouse gas emissions for sectors covered by the cap-and-trade program is 365 MMTCO2E in 2020, which covers about 85 percent of California’s total greenhouse gas emissions.23 Greenhouse gas emissions from most of the sectors covered by a cap-and-trade program will also be governed by other measures, including performance standards, efficiency programs, and direct regulations. These other measures will provide real reductions which will contribute reductions toward the cap. In addition, ARB will work closely with the CPUC, CEC, and The California Independent System Operator to ensure that the cap-and-trade program works within the context of the State’s energy policy and enables the reliable provision of electricity. Table 5: Sector Responsibilities Under Cap-and-Trade Program (MMTCO2E in 2020) Projected 2020 Business-as-Usual Emissions Sector By Sector Total Preliminary 2020 Emissions Limit under Cap-and- Trade Program Transportation 225 Electricity 139 Commercial and Residential 47 Industry 101 512 365 Linkage with the Western Climate Initiative Partner JurisdictionsLinkage with the Western Climate Initiative Partner JurisdictionsLinkage with the Western Climate Initiative Partner JurisdictionsLinkage with the Western Climate Initiative Partner Jurisdictions The WCI was formed in 2007. Members are California, Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, Utah, and Montana, and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. The WCI Partner jurisdictions, including California, have adopted goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that, in total, reduce regional emissions to 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. This regional goal is approximately equal to California’s goal of returning to 1990 levels by 2020. A cap-and-trade program is one element of the effort by the WCI Partner jurisdictions to identify, evaluate, and implement ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve related co-benefits. The WCI Partner jurisdictions released their recommendation for the design of a regional cap-and-trade program in September 2008. This design document and the 23 The actual cap for the program will be established as part of the rulemaking process. The preliminary cap of 365 MMTCO2E in 2020 assumes that all of California’s electricity imports would be covered under a California cap. Because a significant portion of California’s imported electricity is from power plants located in other WCI Partner Jurisdictions, emissions from those sources could be included in the cap of the states within which the power plants are located. In establishing the California cap, ARB will need to consider the degree to which emissions from these sources are addressed as part of the WCI regional market. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 33 background paper that accompanied it are presented in Appendix D. These recommendations were developed collaboratively by the WCI Partner jurisdictions, including California, with a goal of achieving regional targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions equitably and effectively. The WCI Partner jurisdictions’ recommendations are generally consistent with the recommendations provided in June 2007 by the California Market Advisory Committee,24 the recommendations provided to ARB by the California Public Utilities Commission and the California Energy Commission in March 2008,25 and the proposed opinion released by the two Commissions in September 2008.26 Participating in a regional system has several advantages for California. The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that can be achieved collectively by the WCI Partner jurisdictions are approximately double what can be achieved through a California-only program. The broad scope of a WCI-wide market will provide additional opportunities for reduction of emissions, therefore providing greater market liquidity and more stable carbon prices within the program. The regional system also significantly reduces the potential for leakage, which is a shift in economic and emissions activity out of California that could hurt the state’s economy without reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Harmonizing the approach and timing of California's requirements for reducing greenhouse gas emissions with other states and provinces in the region can encourage retention of local businesses in the state. Further, by creating a cost-effective regional market system, California and the other WCI Partner jurisdictions will continue to demonstrate leadership in preparation for future federal and international climate action. To achieve the individual WCI Partner jurisdiction goals and the regional goal, each WCI Partner jurisdiction will have an allowance budget based on its goal that declines to 2020. For example, California’s allowance budget will be based on the level of emissions needed to achieve the AB 32 target for 2020, as described above. Once California links with the other WCI Partner jurisdictions, allowances could be traded across state and provincial boundaries. As a result of trading, emissions in a 24 Recommendations of the Market Advisory Committee to the California Air Resources Board. Recommendations for Designing a Greenhouse Gas Cap-and-Trade System for California. June 30, 2007. p. 19. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/publications/market_advisory_committee/2007-06- 29_MAC_FINAL_REPORT.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008) CalEPAThe Market Advisory Committee (MAC) consisted of a consortium of economists, policy makers, academics, government representatives, and environmental advocates who came together through the auspices of CalEPA, pursuant to Executive Order S-20-06 from Governor Schwarzenegger. 25 Joint Agency Decision of the CEC and the CPUC. Final Adopted Interim Decision on Basic Greenhouse Gas Regulatory Framework for Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors, March 13, 2008. Document number CEC-100- 2008-002-F. http://www.energy.ca.gov/2008publications/CEC-100-2008-002/CEC-100-2008-002-F.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008) 26 Joint Agency proposed final opinion of the CEC and the CPUC. Proposed Final Opinion on Greenhouse Gas Regulatory Strategies. Published September 12, 2008 and to be considered for adoption on October 16, 2008 by the CEC and the CPUC. Document Number CEC-100-2008-007-D http://www.energy.ca.gov/ghg_emissions/index.html (accessed October 12, 2008) II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 34 state may vary from its allowance budget, although total regional emissions will not exceed the regional cap. The overall number of allowances issued in a given year by the WCI Partner jurisdictions will set a limit on emissions from sectors covered by the program for the region. Details of distribution of allowances will be established by each partner within the general guidelines set forth in the WCI program design framework. The WCI Partner jurisdictions have agreed to consider standardizing allowance distribution across specific sectors if necessary to address competitiveness issues. In addition, the WCI Partner jurisdictions have agreed to phase in regionally coordinated auctions of allowances, with a minimum percentage of allowances auctioned in each period starting with 10 percent in the first compliance period and increasing to 25 percent in 2020. WCI partners aspire to reach higher auction percentages over time, possibly to 100 percent. Under the program design, each WCI Partner jurisdiction, including California, can auction a greater portion of its allowance budget in any compliance period. The distribution of California’s allowances will be determined during the cap-and-trade rulemaking process, as discussed below. The WCI Partner jurisdictions are also proposing the use of an allowance reserve price for the first 5 percent of the auctioned allowances in the regional cap. A reserve price will help to ensure that the cap is set at a level that will motivate real emissions reductions and may provide an opportunity for the regional cap-and-trade program to provide reductions that exceed the regional target. A regional coordinated cap-and-trade program with strong reporting and enforcement rules will provide a high degree of certainty that emissions will not exceed targeted levels and that leakage will not occur. Federal ActionFederal ActionFederal ActionFederal Action A cap-and-trade program is expected to be a significant element in any future federal action taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. ARB’s efforts to design a broad cap-and-trade system that works in concert with sector- or source-related measures and meets the requirements of AB 32 can serve as a model for a federal program. An effective, enforceable regional cap-and-trade program can promote the type of federal legislation needed to meet the pressing challenge of climate change. In the event that California businesses, organizations, or individuals hold regional allowances when a federal system is implemented, California will work to ensure that those allowances continue to have value, either in a continuing regional program or within the federal program. CapCapCapCap----andandandand----Trade RulemakingTrade RulemakingTrade RulemakingTrade Rulemaking To implement the cap-and-trade program, ARB will embark on regulatory development that includes extensive and broad-based public participation. Major program design elements will include setting an emissions cap in conjunction with the WCI Partner jurisdictions, determining the method of distributing both allowances Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 35 and revenues raised through auctions, and establishing the rules for the use of offsets. ARB will continue to work with all affected stakeholders, State and local agencies, and our WCI partners to create a robust regional market system. After adoption of the Scoping Plan, ARB will establish a formal structure to elicit ongoing participation in the rulemaking process from a wide range of affected stakeholders. While the process will be open to involvement by all interested parties, ARB anticipates creation of a series of focused working groups that include participation by representatives of the regulated community, environmental and community advocates and other public interest groups, prominent academics with expertise in cap-and-trade issues and new technology development, local air pollution control districts, stakeholders in the WCI, and other State agencies with existing authority for regulating capped sectors. This process will integrate economic and administrative design considerations and include consideration of environmental and public health issues. ARB will convene a series of technical workshops to examine mechanisms to address the concerns related to the cap-and-trade program raised by the Environmental Justice Advisory Committee and other stakeholders. The first workshop will explore cap-and-trade program design options that could provide incentives to maximize additional environmental and economic benefits, and to analyze the proposed program to prevent increases in emissions of toxic air contaminants or criteria pollutants through the design and architecture of the program itself. Similar technical workshops will focus on issues related to offsets and the WCI proposal. Allowances and Revenues Emission allowances represent a significant economic value whether they are freely allocated or sold through auction. Section E includes a preliminary discussion of some of the options that have been suggested for use of allowance value or revenues. ARB will evaluate the possible uses of allowances or revenues as part of the rulemaking process. One approach would be to dedicate a portion of the allowances for such purposes as rewarding early actions to reduce emissions, providing incentives for local governments and others to promote energy efficiency, better land use planning, and other reduction strategies, and targeting projects to reduce emissions in low-income or disadvantaged communities. This type of dedicated use of allowances is typically referred to as an allowance ‘set-aside.’ The California Public Utilities Commission and the California Energy Commission addressed the question of allocation and auction of allowances in their joint proceeding on implementation of AB 32 for the Electricity and Natural Gas sectors. They have recently released a proposed opinion that recommends to ARB a transition to 100 percent auction for the Electricity sector by 2016.27 The CPUC and CEC 27 Op. Cit. The proposed opinion has not yet been voted on by either the CPUC or the CEC. The Commissions are expected to vote on this proposed opinion before the December Board meeting when the Proposed Scoping Plan will be considered for approval. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 36 included in their draft opinion the recommendation that all auction revenues be used for purposes related to AB 32, and all revenue from allowances allocated to the Electricity sector and received by retail providers would be used for the benefit of the Electricity sector to support investments in renewable energy, efficiency, new energy technology, infrastructure, customer bill relief, and other similar programs. The Market Advisory Committee also recommended the eventual transition to full auction within the cap-and-trade program, noting that a system in which California ultimately auctions all of its emission allowances is consistent with fundamental objectives of cost-effectiveness, fairness and simplicity.28 ARB agrees that a transition to a 100 percent auction is a worthwhile goal for distributing allowances. However a broad set of factors must be considered in evaluating the potential timing of a transition to a full auction including competiveness, potential for emissions leakage, the effect on regulated vs. unregulated industrial sectors, the overall impact on consumers, and the strategic use of auction revenues. Allowance allocation and revenue use decisions can greatly affect the equity of a cap- and-trade system. Addressing both these issues will be a major part of the rulemaking process. ARB will seek input from a broad range of experts in an open public process regarding the options for allocation and revenue use under consideration by ARB and the WCI Partner jurisdictions. This process will evaluate various mechanisms ARB is considering for allowance distribution and potential uses of allowance value, including the recommendations offered by CPUC and CEC. Issues to be considered will include the appropriate timing and structure of a transition to full auction of allowances, the potential need to harmonize the allocation process regionally for certain sectors subject to inter-state competition, and equity across the various sectors here in California. Offsets Individual projects can be developed to achieve the reduction of emissions from activities not otherwise regulated, covered under an emissions cap, or resulting from government incentives. These projects can generate "offsets,” i.e., verifiable reductions of emissions whose ownership can be transferred to others. The cap-and- trade rulemaking will establish appropriate rules for use of offsets. As required by AB 32, any reduction of greenhouse gas emissions used for compliance purposes must be real, permanent, quantifiable, verifiable, enforceable, and additional (HSC §38562(d)(1) and (2)). Offsets used to meet regulatory requirements must be quantified according to Board-adopted methodologies, and ARB must adopt a regulation to verify and enforce the reductions (HSC §38571). The criteria developed will ensure that the reductions are quantified accurately and are not double-counted within the system. 28Recommendations of the Market Advisory Committee to the California Air Resources Board. Recommendations for Designing a Greenhouse Gas Cap-and-Trade System for California. June 30, 2007. p. 55. http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/publications/market_advisory_committee/2007-06- 29_MAC_FINAL_REPORT.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008) Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 37 Offsets can provide regulated entities a source of low-cost emissions reductions. Reductions from compliance offset projects must be quantified using rigorous measurement and enforcement protocols that provide a basis to determine whether the reductions are also additional, i.e., beyond what would have happened in the absence of the offset project. Establishing that reductions are additional is one of the major challenges in establishing the validity of particular offset projects. Once a project can quantify emissions using an approved methodology, the reductions of emissions must be verified to ensure that reductions actually occurred. While some offsets provide benefits, allowing unlimited offsets would reduce the amount of reductions of greenhouse gas emissions occurring within the sectors covered by the cap-and-trade program. This could reduce the local economic, environmental and public health co-benefits and delay the transition to low-carbon energy systems within the capped sectors that will be necessary to meet our long term climate goals. The limit on the use of offsets and allowances from other systems within the WCI Partner jurisdiction program design assures that a majority of the emissions reductions required from 2012 to 2020 occur at entities and facilities covered by the cap and trade program. Consequently, the use of offsets and allowances from other systems are limited to no more than 49 percent of the required reduction of emissions. This quantitative limit will help provide balance between the need to achieve meaningful emissions reductions from capped sources with the need to provide sources within capped sectors the opportunity for low-cost reduction opportunities that offsets can provide. The WCI offset program may incorporate flexibility to use offsets and non-WCI allowances across the three compliance periods, which each WCI Partner jurisdiction could use at its discretion. ARB will apply the limit on offsets that is within its jurisdiction, such that the allowable offsets in each compliance period is less than half of the emissions reductions expected from capped sectors in that compliance period. Each WCI Partner jurisdiction may choose to adopt a more stringent limit on the use of offsets and non-WCI allowances. Offsets can also encourage the spread of clean, low carbon technologies outside California. High quality offset projects located outside the state can help lower the compliance costs for regulated entities in California, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions in areas that would otherwise lack the resources needed to do so. International projects may also have significant environmental, economic and social benefits. Projects in the Mexican border region may be of particular interest, considering the opportunity to realize considerable co-benefits on both sides of the border. The Governor has recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the six Mexican border states that calls for cooperation on the development of project protocols for Mexican greenhouse gas emissions reduction projects.29 Additionally, 29 Memorandum of Understanding on Environmental Cooperation between the California Environmental Protection Agency, the California Department of Food and Agriculture and the California Resources Agency of the State of California, United States of America and the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of the United Mexican States. February 13, 2008. http://gov.ca.gov/pdf/press/021308_MOU_English.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 38 defining project types related to imported commodities (such as cement) would enable California to provide incentives to reduce emissions associated with products that are imported into the state for our consumption. California is committed to working at the international level to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally and finding ways to support the adoption of low-carbon technologies and sustainable development in the developing world. ARB will work with WCI Partner jurisdictions and within the rulemaking process to establish an offsets program without geographic restrictions that includes sufficiently stringent criteria for creating offset credits to ensure the overall environmental integrity of the program. One concept being evaluated for accepting offsets from the developing world is to limit offsets to those jurisdictions that demonstrate performance in reducing emissions and/or achieving greenhouse gas intensity targets in certain carbon intensive sectors (e.g., cement), or in reducing emissions or enhancing sequestration through eligible forest carbon activities in accordance with appropriate national or sub-national accounting frameworks. This could be achieved through an agreement to work jointly to develop minimum performance standards or sectoral benchmarks, backed by appropriate monitoring and accounting frameworks. Such agreements would encourage early action in developing countries toward binding commitments, and could also reduce concerns about competitiveness and risks associated with carbon leakage. 2. California Light2. California Light2. California Light2. California Light----Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas StandardsDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas StandardsDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas StandardsDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards Implement adopted Pavley standards and planned second phase of the program. Align zero-emission vehicle, alternative and renewable fuel and vehicle technology programs with long-term climate change goals. Passenger vehicles are responsible for almost 30 percent of California’s greenhouse gas emissions. To address these emissions, ARB is proposing a comprehensive three- prong strategy – reducing greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, reducing the carbon content of the fuel these vehicles burn, and reducing the miles these vehicles travel. Transportation fuels and regional transportation-related greenhouse gas targets are discussed later in the recommendations. There are a number of efforts intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from California’s passenger vehicles, including the Pavley greenhouse gas vehicle standards to achieve near-term emission reductions, the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) program to transform the future vehicle fleet, and the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program created by AB 118 (Núñez, Chapter 750, Statutes of 2007). Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 39 Pavley Greenhouse Gas Vehicle StandardsPavley Greenhouse Gas Vehicle StandardsPavley Greenhouse Gas Vehicle StandardsPavley Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Standards AB 1493 (Pavley, Chapter 200, Statutes of 2002) directed ARB to adopt vehicle standards that lowered greenhouse gas emissions to the maximum extent technologically feasible, beginning with the 2009 model year. ARB adopted regulations in 2004 and applied to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) for a waiver under the federal Clean Air Act to implement the regulation. The Pavley regulations incorporate both performance standards and market-based compliance mechanisms. To obtain additional reductions from the light duty fleet, ARB plans to adopt a second, more stringent, phase of the Pavley regulations. Table 6 summarizes the estimated reduction of emissions for the Pavley regulations. In addition to delivering greenhouse gas emissions reductions, the standards will save money for Californians who purchase vehicles that comply with the Pavley standards – an estimated average of $30 each month in avoided fuel costs. To date, 13 other states have adopted California’s existing greenhouse gas standards for vehicles. Under federal law, California is the only state allowed to adopt its own vehicle standards (though other states are permitted to adopt California’s more rigorous standards), but California cannot implement the regulations until U.S. EPA grants an administrative waiver. In December 2007, U.S. EPA denied California’s waiver request to implement the Pavley regulations. California and others are challenging that denial in Federal court. The regulations have also been challenged by the automakers in federal courts, although to date, those challenges have been unsuccessful. ARB is evaluating the use of feebates as a measure to achieve additional reductions from the mobile source sector, either as a backstop to the Pavley regulation if the regulation cannot be implemented, or as a supplement to Pavley if the waiver is approved and the regulation takes effect. AB 32 specifically states that if the Pavley regulations do not remain in effect, ARB shall implement alternative regulations to control mobile sources to achieve equivalent or greater reductions of greenhouse gas emissions (HSC §38590). ARB is currently evaluating the use of a feebate program as the mechanism to secure these reductions. A feebate regulation would combine a rebate program for low-emitting vehicles with a fee program for high-emitting vehicles. This program would be designed in a way to generate equivalent or greater cumulative reductions of greenhouse gas emissions compared to what would have been achieved under the Pavley regulations. ARB would also evaluate the potential to expand the program to include additional vehicle classes not currently included in the Pavley program for further greenhouse gas benefits. If the U.S. EPA grants California’s request for a waiver to proceed with implementation of the Pavley regulations, we will analyze the potential for pursuing a feebate program that could complement the Pavley regulations and achieve additional reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 40 ZeroZeroZeroZero----Emission Vehicle ProgramEmission Vehicle ProgramEmission Vehicle ProgramEmission Vehicle Program The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program will play an important role in helping California meet its 2020 and 2050 greenhouse gas emissions reduction requirements. Through 2012, the program requires placement of hundreds of ZEVs (including hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicles) and thousands of near-zero emission vehicles (plug-in hybrids, conventional hybrids, compressed natural gas vehicles). In the mid-term (2012-2015), the program will require placement of increasing numbers of ZEVs and near-zero emission vehicles in California. In 2009, the Board will consider a proposal that is currently being developed to ensure that the ZEV program is optimally designed to help the State meet its 2020 target and put us on the path to meeting our 2050 target of an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. It is important to note that while the use of both battery-powered electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids (which can be plugged in to recharge batteries) is not expected to increase electricity demand in the near term, over the longer term these technologies could result in meaningful new electricity demand. However, the expected increased electricity demand is likely to be met by off peak vehicle battery charging (i.e., overnight) to provide a means of load leveling and other possible benefits.30 Air Quality Improvement Program/Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Air Quality Improvement Program/Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Air Quality Improvement Program/Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Air Quality Improvement Program/Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology ProgramTechnology ProgramTechnology ProgramTechnology Program Under AB 118 (Núñez, Chapter 750, Statutes of 2007), ARB is administering the Air Quality Improvement Program, which provides approximately $50 million per year for grants to fund clean vehicle/equipment projects and research on the air quality impacts of alternative fuels and advanced technology vehicles. AB 118 also created the Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program and authorized CEC to spend up to $120 million per year for over seven years (from 2008-2015) to develop, demonstrate, and deploy innovative technologies to transform California’s fuel and vehicle types. This program creates the opportunities for investment in technologies and fuels that will help meet the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, the AB 1007 (Pavley, Chapter 371, Statutes of 2005) goal of increasing alternative fuels, the AB 32 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and the State’s overall goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. CEC and ARB are coordinating closely in the implementation of AB 118. In the long-term, programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars would reduce highway funds because less fuel would be sold, reducing tax revenue. In coordination with other State agencies, ARB will continue to evaluate the potential impacts of these shifts and identify potential solutions. 30 There is also a potential for battery-electric and hybrid vehicles (both plug-in and traditional hybrid-electric) to be used in the future to provide electricity back into the electricity grid during times of especially high demand (peak periods). Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 41 Table 6: California Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions T-1 Pavley I and II – Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards 31.7 Total 31.7 3. Energy Efficiency3. Energy Efficiency3. Energy Efficiency3. Energy Efficiency Maximize energy efficiency building and appliance standards, and pursue additional efficiency efforts including new technologies, and new policy and implementation mechanisms. Pursue comparable investment in energy efficiency from all retail providers of electricity in California (including both investor-owned and publicly- owned utilities). Energy-efficiency measures for both electricity and natural gas can reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. In 2003, the CPUC and CEC adopted an Energy Action Plan that prioritized resources for meeting California’s future energy needs, with energy efficiency being first in the “loading order,” or highest priority. Since then, this policy goal has been codified into statute through legislation that requires electric utilities to meet their resource needs first with energy efficiency.31 This measure would set new targets for statewide annual energy demand reductions of 32,000 gigawatt hours and 800 million therms from business as usual32 – enough to power more than 5 million homes, or replace the need to build about ten new large power plants (500 megawatts each). These targets represent a higher goal than existing efficiency targets established by CPUC for the investor-owned utilities due to the inclusion of innovative strategies above traditional utility programs. Achieving the State’s energy efficiency targets will require coordinated efforts from the State, the federal government, energy companies and customers. ARB will work with CEC and CPUC to facilitate these partnerships. A number of these measures also have the potential to deliver significant economic benefits to California consumers, including low-income households and small businesses. California’s energy efficiency programs for buildings and appliances have generated more than $50 billion in savings over the past three decades. Tables 7 and 8 summarize the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. 31 SB 1037 (Kehoe, Chapter 366, Statutes of 2005) and AB 2021 (Levine, Chapter 734, Statutes of 2006) directed electricity corporations subject to CPUC’s authority and publicly-owned electricity utilities to first meet their unmet resource needs through all available energy efficiency and demand response resources that are cost effective, reliable and feasible. 32 The savings targeted here are additional to savings currently assumed to be incorporated in CEC’s 2007 demand forecasts. However, CEC has initiated a public process to better determine the quantity of energy savings from standards, utility programs, and market effects that are embedded in the baseline demand forecast. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 42 EfficiencyEfficiencyEfficiencyEfficiency Achieving the energy efficiency target will require redoubled efforts to target industrial, agricultural, commercial, and residential end-use sectors, comprised of both innovative new initiatives that have been embraced by CEC’s energy policy reports and CPUC’s long-term strategic plan, and improvements to California’s traditional approaches of improved building standards and utility programs. High-efficiency distributed generation applications like fuel cell technologies can also play an important role in helping the State meet its requirements for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Key energy efficiency strategies, grouped by type, include: Cross-cutting Strategy for Buildings · “Zero Net Energy” buildings33 Codes and Standards Strategies · More stringent building codes and appliance efficiency standards · Broader standards for new types of appliances and for water efficiency · Improved compliance and enforcement of existing standards · Voluntary efficiency and green building targets beyond mandatory codes Strategies for Existing Buildings · Voluntary and mandatory whole-building retrofits for existing buildings · Innovative financing to overcome first-cost and split incentives for energy efficiency, on-site, renewables, and high efficiency distributed generation Existing and Improved Utility Programs · More aggressive utility programs to achieve long-term savings Other Needed Strategies · Water system and water use efficiency and conservation measures · Local government programs that lead by example and tap into local authority over planning, development, and code compliance · Additional industrial and agricultural efficiency initiatives · Providing real time energy information technologies to help consumers conserve and optimize energy performance With the support of key State agencies, utilities, local governments and others, the CPUC has recently adopted the California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan.34 Released September 2008, this Plan sets forth a set of strategies toward maximizing the achievement of cost-effective energy efficiency in California’s Electricity and Natural Gas sectors between 2009 and 2020, and beyond. Its 33 Zero net energy refers to building energy use over the course of a typical year. When the building is producing more electricity than it needs, it exports its surplus to the grid. When the building requires more electricity than is being produced on-site, it draws from the grid. Generally, when constructing a ZNE building, energy efficiency measures can result in up to 70% savings relative to existing building practices, which then allows for renewables to meet the remaining load. 34 California Public Utilities Commission. California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan. September 2008. http://www.californiaenergyefficiency.com/docs/EEStrategicPlan.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008). Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 43 recommendations are the result of a year-long collaboration by energy experts, utilities, businesses, consumer groups, and governmental organizations in California, throughout the west, nationally and internationally. For many of the above goals and others, the Strategic Plan discusses practical implementation strategies, detailing necessary partnerships among the state, its utilities, the private sector, and other market players and timelines for near-term, mid- term and long-term success. While the Strategic Plan is the most current and innovative summary of energy efficiency strategies needed to meet State goals, additional planning and new strategies will likely be needed, both to achieve the 2020 emissions reduction goals and to set the State on a trajectory toward 2050. Other innovative approaches could also be used to motivate private investment in efficiency improvements. One example that will be evaluated during the development of the cap-and-trade program is the creation of a mechanism to make allowances available within the program to provide incentives for local governments, third party providers, or others to pursue projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the bundling of energy efficiency improvements for small businesses or in targeted communities. Solar Water HeatSolar Water HeatSolar Water HeatSolar Water Heatinginginging Solar water heating systems offer a potential for natural gas savings in California. A solar water heating system offsets the use of natural gas by using the sun to heat water, typically reducing the need for conventional water heating by about two-thirds. Successful implementation of the zero net energy target for new buildings will require significant growth in California’s solar water heating system manufacturing and installation industry. The State has initiated a program to move toward a self sustaining solar water heater industry. The Solar Hot Water and Efficiency Act of 2007 (SHWEA) authorized a ten year, $250-million incentive program for solar water heaters with a goal of promoting the installation of 200,000 systems in California by 2017.35 Combined Heat and PowerCombined Heat and PowerCombined Heat and PowerCombined Heat and Power Combined heat and power (CHP), also referred to as cogeneration, produces electricity and useful thermal energy in an integrated system. The widespread development of efficient CHP systems would help displace the need to develop new, or expand existing, power plants. This measure sets a target of an additional 4,000 MW of installed CHP capacity by 2020, enough to displace approximately 30,000 GWh of demand from other power generation sources.36 35 Established under Assembly Bill 1470 (Huffman, Chapter 536, Statues of 2007). 36 Accounting for avoided transmission line losses of seven percent, this amount of CHP would actually displace 32,000 GWh from the grid. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 44 California has supported CHP for many years, but market and other barriers continue to keep CHP from reaching its full market potential. Increasing the deployment of efficient CHP will require a multi-pronged approach that includes addressing significant barriers and instituting incentives or mandates where appropriate. These approaches could include such options as utility-provided incentive payments, the creation of a CHP portfolio standard, transmission and distribution support payments, or the use of feed-in tariffs. Table 7: Energy Efficiency Recommendation - Electricity (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions E-1 Energy Efficiency (32,000 GWh of Reduced Demand) · Increased Utility Energy Efficiency Programs · More Stringent Building & Appliance Standards · Additional Efficiency and Conservation Programs 15.2 E-2 Increase Combined Heat and Power Use by 30,000 GWh 6.7 Total 21.9 Table 8: Energy Efficiency Recommendation - Commercial and Residential (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions CR-1 Energy Efficiency (800 Million Therms Reduced Consumption) · Utility Energy Efficiency Programs · Building and Appliance Standards · Additional Efficiency and Conservation Programs 4.3 CR-2 Solar Water Heating (AB 1470 goal) 0.1 Total 4.4 4. Renewables P4. Renewables P4. Renewables P4. Renewables Portfolio Standardortfolio Standardortfolio Standardortfolio Standard Achieve 33 percent renewable energy mix statewide. CEC estimates that about 12 percent of California’s retail electric load is currently met with renewable resources. Renewable energy includes (but is not limited to) wind, solar, geothermal, small hydroelectric, biomass, anaerobic digestion, and landfill gas. California’s current Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) is intended to increase that share to 20 percent by 2010. Increased use of renewables will decrease California’s reliance on fossil fuels, thus reducing emissions of greenhouse gases from the Electricity sector. Based on Governor Schwarzenegger’s call for a statewide 33 percent RPS, the Plan anticipates that California will have 33 percent of its electricity provided by renewable resources by 2020, and includes the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions based on this level. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 45 Senate Bill 107 (Simitian, Chapter 464, Statutes of 2006) obligates the investor- owned utilities (IOUs) to increase the share of renewables in their electricity portfolios to 20 percent by 2010. Meanwhile, the publicly-owned utilities (POUs) are encouraged but not required to meet the same RPS. The governing boards of the state’s three largest POUs, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), and the Imperial Irrigation District (IID), have adopted policies to achieve 20 percent renewables by 2010 or 2011. LADWP and IID have established targets of 35 and 30 percent, respectively, by 2020. In 2005, CEC and CPUC committed in the Energy Action Plan II to “evaluate and develop implementation paths for achieving renewable resource goals beyond 2010, including 33 percent renewables by 2020, in light of cost-benefit and risk analysis, for all load serving entities.” The proposed opinion in the CPUC/CEC joint proceeding lends strong support for obtaining 33 percent of California’s electricity from renewables, and states the two Commissions’ belief that this target is achievable if the State commits to significant investments in transmission infrastructure and key program augmentation. As with the energy efficiency target, achieving the 33 percent goal will require broad-based participation from many parties and the removal of barriers. CEC, CPUC, California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and ARB are working with California utilities and other stakeholders to formally establish and meet this goal. A key prerequisite to reaching a target of 33 percent renewables will be to provide sufficient electric transmission lines to renewable resource zones and system changes to allow integration of large quantities of intermittent wind and solar generation. The Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative (RETI) is a broad collaborative of State agencies, utilities, the environmental community, and renewable generation developers that are working cooperatively to identify and prioritize renewable generation zones and associated transmission projects. Although biomass, geothermal, and small-scale hydroelectric generation can provide steady baseload power, other renewable generation is intermittent (wind) or varies over time (solar). Therefore, integration of intermittent generation into the electricity system will require grid improvements so that fluctuations in power availability can be accommodated. Improved communications technology, automated demand response, electric sub-station improvements and other modern technologies must be implemented both to facilitate intermittent renewables, and to improve grid reliability. Another key action that may help to achieve the renewable energy goals is to reduce the complexity and cost faced by small renewable developers in contracting with utilities to supply renewable generation. This is particularly important for projects offering below 20 megawatts of generation capacity. One such option may be a feed- in tariff for all RPS-eligible renewable energy facilities up to 20 megawatts in size. This mechanism was recommended in CEC’s 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report. Such a tariff, set at an appropriate level, could benefit small-scale facilities by allowing them to be brought into the electricity grid more rapidly. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 46 For the purposes of calculating the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in this Proposed Scoping Plan, ARB is counting emissions avoided by increasing the percentage of renewables in California’s electricity mix from the current level of 12 percent to the 33 percent goal, as shown in Table 9. Table 9: Renewables Portfolio Standard Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions E-3 Achieve a 33% renewables mix by 2020 21.3 Total 21.3 5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard 5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard 5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard 5. Low Carbon Fuel Standard Develop and adopt the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Because transportation is the largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions in California, the State is taking an integrated approach to reducing emissions from this sector. Beyond including vehicle efficiency improvements and lowering vehicle miles traveled, the State is proposing to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels consumed in California. To reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels, ARB is developing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which would reduce the carbon intensity of California's transportation fuels by at least ten percent by 2020 as called for by Governor Schwarzenegger in Executive Order S-01-07. LCFS will incorporate compliance mechanisms that provide flexibility to fuel providers in how they meet the requirements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The LCFS will examine the full fuel cycle impacts of transportation fuels and ARB will work to design the regulation in a way that most effectively addresses the issues raised by the Environmental Justice Advisory Committee and other stakeholders. ARB identified the LCFS as a Discrete Early Action item, and is developing a regulation for Board consideration in March 2009. A 10 percent reduction in the intensity of transportation fuels is expected to equate to a reduction of 16.5 MMTCO2E in 2020. However, in order to account for possible overlap of benefits between LCFS and the Pavley greenhouse gas standards, ARB has discounted the contribution of LCFS to 15 MMTCO2E. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 47 Table 10: Low Carbon Fuel Standard Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions T-2 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (Discrete Early Action) 15 Total 15 6. Regional Transportation6. Regional Transportation6. Regional Transportation6. Regional Transportation----Related Greenhouse Gas TargetsRelated Greenhouse Gas TargetsRelated Greenhouse Gas TargetsRelated Greenhouse Gas Targets Develop regional greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for passenger vehicles. Establishment of Regional Establishment of Regional Establishment of Regional Establishment of Regional TargetsTargetsTargetsTargets On September 30, 2008, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg) which establishes mechanisms for the development of regional targets for reducing passenger vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. Through the SB 375 process, regions will work to integrate development patterns and the transportation network in a way that achieves the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while meeting housing needs and other regional planning objectives. This new law reflects the importance of achieving significant additional reductions of greenhouse gas emissions from changed land use patterns and improved transportation to help achieve the goals of AB 32. SB 375 requires ARB to develop, in consultation with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), passenger vehicle greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2020 and 2035 by September 30, 2010. It sets forth a collaborative process to establish these targets, including the appointment by ARB of a Regional Targets Advisory Committee to recommend factors to be considered and methodologies for setting greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. SB 375 also provides incentives – relief from certain California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) requirements for development projects that are consistent with regional plans that achieve the targets. Reaching the TargetsReaching the TargetsReaching the TargetsReaching the Targets Transportation planning is done on a regional level in major urban areas, through the Metropolitan Planning Organizations. These MPOs are required by the federal government to prepare regional transportation plans (RTPs) in order to receive federal transportation dollars. These plans must reflect the land uses called out in city and county general plans. Regional planning efforts provide an opportunity for community residents to help select future growth scenarios that lead to more sustainable and energy efficient communities. Such plans should be developed through an extensive public process to provide for local accountability. SB 375 requires MPOs to prepare a sustainable communities strategy to reach the regional target provided by ARB. MPOs would use the sustainable communities strategy for the land use pattern underlying the region’s transportation plan. If the strategy does not meet the target, the MPO must document the impediments and show how the target could be met with an alternative planning strategy. The CEQA relief II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 48 would be provided to those projects that are consistent with either the sustainable communities strategy or alternative planning strategy, whichever meets the target. Many regions in California have conducted comprehensive scenario planning, called Blueprint planning, that engages a broad set of stakeholders at the local level on the impacts of land use and transportation choices. The State has allocated resources to initiate or augment existing Blueprint efforts of MPOs. These efforts focus on fostering efficient land use patterns that not only reduce vehicle travel but also accommodate an adequate supply of housing, reduce impacts on valuable habitat and productive farmland, increase resource use efficiency, and promote a prosperous regional economy. Blueprint planning can play an important role in the SB 375 process by helping inform target-setting efforts and building strong sustainable communities strategies. Local governments will play a significant role in the regional planning process to reach passenger vehicle greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Local governments have the ability to directly influence both the siting and design of new residential and commercial developments in a way that reduces greenhouse gases associated with vehicle travel, as well as energy, water, and waste. A partnership of local and regional agencies is needed to create a sustainable vision for the future that accommodates population growth in a carbon efficient way while meeting housing needs and other planning goals. Integration of the sustainable communities strategies or alternative planning strategies with local general plans will be key to the achievement of these goals. State, regional, and local agencies must work together to prioritize and create the supporting policies, programs, incentives, guidance, and funding to assist local actions to help ensure regional targets are met. Enhanced public transit service combined with incentives for land use development that provides a better market for public transit will play an important role in helping to reach regional targets. SB 375 maintains regions’ flexibility in the development of sustainable communities strategies. There are many different ways regions can plan and work toward reducing the growth in vehicle travel. Increasing low-carbon travel choices (public transit, carpooling, walking and biking) combined with land use patterns and infrastructure that support these low-carbon modes of travel, can decrease average vehicle trip lengths by bringing more people closer to more destinations. The need for integrated strategies is supported by the current transportation and land use modeling literature. Supporting measures that should be considered in both the regional target-setting and sustainable communities strategy processes include the following: · Congestion pricing strategies can provide a method of efficiently managing traffic demand while raising funds for needed transit, biking and pedestrian infrastructure investment. Regional and local agencies, however, do not have the authority to pursue these strategies on their own, as federal approval and State Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 49 authorization must be provided for regional implementation of most pricing measures. · Indirect source rules for new development have already been implemented by some local air districts and proposed by others for purposes of criteria pollution reduction. Regions should evaluate the need for measures that would ensure the mitigation of high carbon footprint development outside of the sustainable communities strategies or alternative planning strategies that meet the targets established under SB 375. · Programs to reduce vehicle trips while preserving personal mobility, such as employee transit incentives, telework programs, car sharing, parking policies, public education programs and other strategies that enhance and complement land use and transit strategies can be implemented and coordinated by regional and local agencies and stakeholder groups. Another way to encourage greenhouse gas reductions from vehicle travel is through pay as you drive insurance (PAYD), a structure in which drivers realize a direct financial benefit from driving less. The California Insurance Commissioner recently announced support for PAYD and has proposed regulations to permit PAYD on a voluntary basis. Separate emissions reduction estimates for these strategies are not quantified here. As regional targets are developed in the SB 375 process, ARB will work with regions to quantify the benefits in the context of the targets. Estimating the Benefits of Regional Targets Estimating the Benefits of Regional Targets Estimating the Benefits of Regional Targets Estimating the Benefits of Regional Targets The ARB estimate of the statewide benefit of regional transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets is based on analysis of research results quantifying the effects of land use and transportation strategies. The emissions reduction number in Table 11 is not the statewide metric for regional targets that must be developed as SB 375 is implemented. The emissions target will ultimately be determined during the SB 375 process. The possible impacts of land use and transportation policies have been well documented. Most recently, a 2008 U.C. Berkeley study37 reviewed over 20 modeling studies from California (including the State’s four largest MPOs), other states and Europe. The study found a range of 0.4 to 7.7 percent reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) resulting from a combination of land use and enhanced transit policies compared to a business-as-usual case over a 10-year horizon, with benefits doubling by 2030, as shown in Figure 4. With the inclusion of additional measures 37Rodier, Caroline. U.C. Berkeley, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, “A Review of the International Modeling Literature: Transit, Land Use, and Auto Pricing Strategies to Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” August 2008. http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/tsaq/docs/rodier_8-1- 08_trb_paper.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 50 such as pricing policies, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can be greater. These strategies will be considered during the target-setting process. Sophisticated land use and transportation models can best assess these effects. As part of the development of regional targets, technical tools will need to be refined to ensure sound quantification techniques are available. Figure 4 The potential benefits of this measure that can be realized by 2020 (as shown in Table 11) were estimated after first accounting for the benefits of the vehicle technology and efficiency measures in the plan. It was calculated based on the U.C. Berkeley study’s median value of 4 percent per capita VMT reduction over a 10-year time horizon. This value should not be interpreted as the final estimate of the benefits of this measure. The current academic literature supports this realistic statewide estimate of potential benefits, but the ultimate benefit will be determined as an outcome of SB 375 implementation on a regional level. The incentives for sustainable planning in SB 375 can set California on a new path. ARB’s establishment of regional targets in 2010, combined with the Regional Targets Advisory Committee process, required by the legislation, provides a clear mechanism for maximizing the benefits of this measure. Additional Benefits of Regional Targets and Land UsAdditional Benefits of Regional Targets and Land UsAdditional Benefits of Regional Targets and Land UsAdditional Benefits of Regional Targets and Land Use Strategiese Strategiese Strategiese Strategies Land use and transportation measures that help reduce vehicle travel will also provide multiple benefits beyond greenhouse gas reductions. Quality of life will be improved by increasing access to a variety of mobility options such as transit, biking, and walking, and will provide a diversity of housing options focused on proximity to jobs, recreation, and services. Other important state and community goals that could be met through better integrated land use and transportation planning include Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 51 agricultural, open space and habitat preservation, improved water quality, positive health effects, and the reduction of smog forming pollutants. Growing more sustainably has the potential to provide additional greenhouse gas and energy savings by encouraging more compact, mixed-use developments resulting in reduced demand for electricity and heating and cooling energy. These land use- related energy savings will contribute toward the Plan’s energy efficiency measures to achieve the goal of reducing electricity and natural gas usage. ARB is continuing to evaluate the greenhouse gas emissions reductions that may be additional to the proposed measures in this plan. Table 11: Regional Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Targets Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions T-3 Regional Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Targets38 5 Total 5 7. Vehicle Efficiency Measures7. Vehicle Efficiency Measures7. Vehicle Efficiency Measures7. Vehicle Efficiency Measures Implement light-duty vehicle efficiency measures. Several additional measures could reduce light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. The California Integrated Waste Management Board (CIWMB) with various partners continues to conduct a public awareness campaign to promote sustainable tire practices. ARB is pursuing a regulation to ensure that tires are properly inflated when vehicles are serviced. In addition, CEC in consultation with CIWMB is developing an efficient tire program focusing first on data gathering and outreach, then on potential adoption of minimum fuel-efficient tire standards, and lastly on the development of consumer information requirements for replacing tires. ARB is also pursuing ways to reduce engine load via lower friction oil and reducing the need for air conditioner use. ARB is actively engaged in the regulatory development process for the tire inflation component of this measure. Current information indicates the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is likely to be less than estimated in the Draft Scoping Plan. ARB has adjusted the estimated reductions shown in Table 12 to reflect this. 38 This number represents an estimate of what may be achieved from local land use changes. It is not the SB 375 regional target. ARB will establish regional targets for each MPO region following the input of the Regional Targets Advisory Committee and a public consultation process with MPOs and other stakeholders per SB 375. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 52 Table 12: Vehicle Efficiency Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions T-4 Vehicle Efficiency Measures 4.5 Total 4.5 8. Goods Movement8. Goods Movement8. Goods Movement8. Goods Movement Implement adopted regulations for the use of shore power for ships at berth. Improve efficiency in goods movement activities. A significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions from transportation activities comes from the movement of freight or goods throughout the state. Activity at California ports is forecast to increase by 250 percent between now and 2020. Both the Goods Movement Emission Reduction Plan (GMERP) and the 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP) contain numerous measures designed to reduce the public health impact of goods movement activities in California. ARB has already adopted a regulation to require ship electrification at ports. Proposition 1B funds, as well as clean air plans being implemented by California’s ports, will also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions while cutting criteria pollutant and toxic diesel emissions. ARB is proposing to develop and implement additional measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions due to goods movement from trucks, ports and other related facilities. The anticipated reductions would be above and beyond what is already expected in the GMERP and the SIP. This effort should provide accompanying reductions in air toxics and smog forming emissions. The estimated reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is shown in Table 13. After further evaluation, ARB incorporated the Draft Scoping Plan’s Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Efficiency measure into the Goods Movement measure. A Heavy-Duty Engine Efficiency measure could reduce emissions associated with goods movement through improvements which could involve advanced combustion strategies, friction reduction, waste heat recovery, and electrification of accessories. ARB will consider setting requirements and standards for heavy-duty engine efficiency in the future if higher levels of efficiency are not being produced either in response to market forces (fuel costs) or federal standards. Table 13: Goods Movement Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions T-5 Ship Electrification at Ports (Discrete Early Action) 0.2 T-6 Goods Movement Efficiency Measures · System-Wide Efficiency Improvements 3.5 Total 3.7 Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 53 9. Million Solar Roofs Program9. Million Solar Roofs Program9. Million Solar Roofs Program9. Million Solar Roofs Program Install 3,000 MW of solar-electric capacity under California’s existing solar programs. As part of Governor Schwarzenegger’s Million Solar Roofs Program, California has set a goal to install 3,000 megawatts (MW) of new solar capacity by 2017 – moving the state toward a cleaner energy future and helping lower the cost of solar systems for consumers. The Million Solar Roofs Initiative is a ratepayer-financed incentive program aimed at transforming the market for rooftop solar systems by driving down costs over time. Created under Senate Bill 1 (Murray, Chapter 132, Statutes of 2006), the Million Solar Roofs Program includes CPUC’s California Solar Initiative and CEC’s New Solar Homes Partnership, and requires publicly-owned utilities (POUs) to adopt, implement and finance a solar incentive program. This measure would offset electricity from the grid, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The estimated emissions reductions are shown in Table 14. Obtaining the incentives requires the building owners or developers to meet certain efficiency requirements: specifically, that new construction projects meet energy efficiency levels that exceed the State’s Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards, and that existing commercial buildings undergo an energy audit. Thus, the program is also a mechanism for achieving the efficiency targets for the Energy sector. By requiring greater energy efficiency for projects that seek solar incentives, the State would be able to reduce both electricity and natural gas needs and their associated greenhouse gas emissions. Table 14: Million Solar Roofs Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions E-4 Million Solar Roofs (including California Solar Initiative, New Solar Homes Partnership and solar programs of publicly owned utilities) · Target of 3000 MW Total Installation by 2020 2.1 Total 2.1 10. Medium10. Medium10. Medium10. Medium/Heavy/Heavy/Heavy/Heavy----Duty VehiclesDuty VehiclesDuty VehiclesDuty Vehicles Adopt medium and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency measures. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles account for approximately 20 percent of the transportation greenhouse gas inventory. Requiring retrofits to improve the fuel efficiency of heavy-duty trucks could include a requirement for devices that reduce aerodynamic drag and rolling resistance. In addition, hybridization of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions through increased fuel efficiency. Hybrid trucks would likely achieve the greatest benefits in urban, stop-and-go applications, such as parcel delivery, utility services, transit, and other II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 54 vocational work trucks. The recommendation for this sector is summarized in Table 15. Table 15: Medium/Heavy-Duty Vehicle Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions T-7 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Measure - Aerodynamic Efficiency (Discrete Early Action) 0.9 T-8 Medium/Heavy-Duty Vehicle Hybridization 0.5 Total 1.4 11. Industrial11. Industrial11. Industrial11. Industrial Emissions Emissions Emissions Emissions Require assessment of large industrial sources to determine whether individual sources within a facility can cost-effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide other pollution reduction co-benefits. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fugitive emissions from oil and gas extraction and gas transmission. Adopt and implement regulations to control fugitive methane emissions and reduce flaring at refineries. Energy Efficiency and CoEnergy Efficiency and CoEnergy Efficiency and CoEnergy Efficiency and Co----Benefits Audits for Large Industrial SourcesBenefits Audits for Large Industrial SourcesBenefits Audits for Large Industrial SourcesBenefits Audits for Large Industrial Sources This measure would apply to the direct greenhouse gas emissions at major industrial facilities emitting more than 0.5 MMTCO2E per year. In general, these facilities also have significant emissions of criteria air pollutants, toxic air pollutants, or both. Major industrial facilities include power plants, refineries, cement plants, and miscellaneous other sources. ARB would implement this measure through a regulation, requiring each facility to conduct an energy efficiency audit of individual combustion and other direct sources of greenhouse gases within the facility to determine the potential reduction opportunities, including criteria air pollutants and toxic air contaminants. The audit would include an assessment of the impacts of replacing or upgrading older, less efficient units such as boilers and heaters, or replacing the units with combined heat and power (CHP) units. The measure is summarized in Table 16. The audit would help ARB to identify potential reductions of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, the associated costs and cost-effectiveness, their technical feasibility, and the potential to reduce air pollution impacts at the local or regional level. ARB will use the results to determine if certain emissions sources within a facility can make cost-effective reductions of greenhouse gas emissions that also provide reductions in other criteria or toxic pollutants. Where this is the case, rule provisions or permit conditions would be considered to ensure the best combination of pollution reductions. Nothing in this measure would delay known cost-effective strategies that otherwise would be required. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 55 The California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan (CPUC) discusses a number of strategies associated with improving industrial sector efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reductions, including the development of certification protocols for industrial efficiency improvements to develop market recognition for efficiency gains. Oil and Gas Recovery Operations and Transmission/RefineriesOil and Gas Recovery Operations and Transmission/RefineriesOil and Gas Recovery Operations and Transmission/RefineriesOil and Gas Recovery Operations and Transmission/Refineries California is a major oil and gas producer. Crude oil, both from in-state and imported sources, is processed at 21 oil refineries in the state. In addition to conforming to the requirements of the cap-and-trade program and the audit measure, ARB has identified four specific measures for development and implementation, two for oil and gas recovery operations and gas transmission, and two for refineries. Other industrial measures that were under consideration affect greenhouse gas emissions sources that are fully regulated under cap and trade, which ARB concluded would provide cost- effective reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. All measures would be designed to secure a combination of cost-effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, criteria air pollutants and air toxics. Two measures would be developed to reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas production and gas transmission processes from leaks and incomplete combustion of methane (used as fuel). These measures would include improved leak detection, process modifications, equipment retrofits, installation of new equipment, and best management practices. The first measure would affect oil and gas producers. The second would impact operators of natural gas pipeline systems. These fugitive emissions are not proposed to be covered by a cap and trade program, although combustion-related emissions from these operations are proposed to be covered. The WCI partner jurisdictions are currently evaluating the inclusion of fugitive methane emissions to the extent that adequate quantification methods exist. During implementation of this measure, ARB will determine whether these emissions will also be covered in California’s cap-and-trade program. If the emissions are covered under the cap, ARB will evaluate the need for the measures described here. Two measures would be developed for oil refineries. The first would limit the greenhouse gas emissions from refinery flares while preserving flaring as needed for safety reasons. The second would remove the current fugitive methane exemption in most refinery Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) regulations. This exemption was established because methane does not appreciably contribute to urban smog, but is inappropriate given the role that methane plays in global warming. ARB believes these measures would provide cost-effective greenhouse gas, criteria pollutants and air toxics emissions reductions. Most combustion and other process emissions at refineries would be governed by the cap-and-trade program. As with the oil and gas production measures above, the need for these measures would be evaluated if fugitive methane is included in the WCI cap-and-trade program. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 56 Table 16: Industrial Emissions Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions I-1 Energy Efficiency and Co-Benefits Audits for Large Industrial Sources TBD I-2 Oil and Gas Extraction GHG Emissions Reduction 0.2 I-3 GHG Leak Reduction from Oil and Gas Transmission 0.9 I-4 Refinery Flare Recovery Process Improvements 0.33 I-5 Removal of Methane Exemption from Existing Refinery Regulations 0.01 Total 1.4 12. High Speed Rail12. High Speed Rail12. High Speed Rail12. High Speed Rail Support implementation of a high speed rail system. A high speed rail (HSR) system is part of the statewide strategy to provide more mobility choice and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This measure supports implementation of plans to construct and operate a HSR system between northern and southern California. As planned, the HSR is a 700-mile-long rail system capable of speeds in excess of 200 miles per hour on dedicated, fully-grade separated tracks with state-of-the-art safety, signaling and automated rail control systems. The system would serve the major metropolitan centers of California in 2030 and is projected to displace between 86 and 117 million riders from other travel modes in 2030. For Phase 1 of the HSR, between San Francisco and Anaheim, 2020 is projected to be the first year of service, with 26 percent of the projected 2030 full system ridership levels. The anticipated reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are shown in Table 17. HSR system ridership and the benefits associated with it are anticipated to increase over time as additional portions of the planned system are completed. Over the long term, the system also has the potential to support the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector from land use strategies, by providing opportunities for and encouraging low-impact transit-oriented development. HSR implementation is dependent on voter approval, and the “Safe, Reliable High- Speed Passenger Train Bond Act for the 21st Century” will appear on the November 2008 ballot as Proposition 1A. If Proposition 1A is approved, construction of HSR is anticipated to begin in 2010, with full implementation anticipated in 2030. Table 17: High Speed Rail Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions T-9 High Speed Rail 1.0 Total 1.0 Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 57 13. Green Building Strategy13. Green Building Strategy13. Green Building Strategy13. Green Building Strategy Expand the use of green building practices to reduce the carbon footprint of California’s new and existing inventory of buildings. Collectively, energy use and related activities by buildings are the second largest contributor to California’s greenhouse gas emissions. Almost one-quarter of California’s greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to buildings.39 As the Governor recognized in his Green Building Initiative (Executive Order S-20-04), significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved through the design and construction of new green buildings as well as the sustainable operation, retrofitting, and renovation of existing buildings. A Green Building strategy offers a comprehensive approach to reducing direct and upstream greenhouse gas emissions that cross-cuts multiple sectors including Electricity/Natural Gas, Water, Recycling/Waste, and Transportation. Green buildings are designed, constructed, renovated, operated, and maintained using an integrated approach that reduces greenhouse gas emissions by maximizing energy and resource efficiency. Employing a whole-building design approach can create tremendous synergies that result in multiple benefits at little or no net cost, allowing for efficiencies that would never be possible on an incremental basis. A Green Building strategy will produce greenhouse gas saving through buildings that exceed minimum energy efficiency standards, decrease consumption of potable water, reduce solid waste during construction and operation, and incorporate sustainable materials. Combined these measures can also contribute to healthy indoor air quality, protect human health and minimize impacts to the environment. A Green Building strategy also includes siting considerations. Buildings that are sited close to public transportation or near mixed-use areas can work in tandem with transportation- related strategies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions that result from that sector. In July 2008, the California Building Standards Commission (CBSC) adopted the Green Building Standards Code (GBSC) for all new construction in the state. While the current version of the commercial green building code is voluntary, CBSC anticipates adopting a mandatory code in 2011 which will institute minimum environmental performance standards for all occupancies. The Green Building Strategy includes Zero Net Energy (ZNE) goals for new and existing homes and commercial buildings consistent with the recently-adopted California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan. ARB encourages local governments to raise the bar by adopting “beyond-code” green building requirements. To assist this effort, State government would develop and regularly tighten voluntary standards, written in GBSC language for easy adoption by local jurisdictions. 39 Greenhouse gas emission estimates from electricity, natural gas, and water use in homes and commercial buildings. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 58 As we approach the 2020 and 2030 targets for zero energy buildings, these “percent above code” targets must shift to “percent of ZNE” targets. Zero energy new and existing buildings can be an overarching and unifying concept for energy efficiency in buildings, as discussed above (building energy efficiency measures E-1 and CR-1). In order to achieve statewide GHG emission reductions, these targets should be expanded to address other aspects of environmental performance. For example, these targets could be re-framed as a carbon footprint reduction goal for a 35 percent reduction in both energy and water consumption. For commercial buildings, a 2011 target should be established such that a quarter of all new buildings reduce energy and water consumption by at least 25 percent beyond code. Furthermore, retrofitting existing residential and commercial buildings would achieve substantial greenhouse gas emissions reduction benefits. This Proposed Scoping Plan recommends the establishment of an environmental performance rating system for homes and commercial buildings and further recommends that California adopt mechanisms to encourage and require retrofits for buildings that do not meet minimum standards of performance. An effective green building framework can operate to deliver reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in multiple sectors. The green building strategies provide a vehicle to achieve the statewide electricity and natural gas efficiency targets and lower greenhouse gas emissions from the waste and water transport sectors. Achieving these green building emissions reductions will require coordinated efforts from a broad range of stakeholders, and new financing mechanisms to motivate investment in green building strategies. Achieving significant greenhouse gas emissions reductions from new and existing buildings will require a combination of green building measures for new construction and retrofits to existing buildings. The State of California will set an example by requiring all new State buildings to exceed existing Green Building Initiative energy goals and achieve nationally-recognized building sustainability standards such as Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design - New Construction (LEED-NC) “Gold” certification. Existing State buildings would also be retrofitted to achieve higher standards equivalent to LEED-EB for existing buildings (EB) “Silver.” All new schools should be required to meet the Collaborative for High Performance Schools (CHPS) 2009 criteria. Existing schools applying for modernization funds should also be required to meet CHPS 2009 criteria. ARB estimates that the greenhouse gas savings from green building measures as approximately 26 MMTCO2E, as shown in Table 18 below. Most of these reductions are accounted for in the Electricity, Waste, Water, and Transportation sectors. Because of this, ARB has assigned all emissions reductions that occur as a result of green building strategies to other sectors for purposes of meeting AB 32 requirements, but will continue to evaluate and refine the emissions from this sector. As such, this strategy will require implementation from various entities within Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 59 California, including CEC, PUC, State Architect, and others, each taking the lead in their area of authority and expertise. Table 18: Green Buildings Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions GB-1 Green Buildings40 26 Total 26 14. High G14. High G14. High G14. High Global lobal lobal lobal WWWWarming arming arming arming PPPPotentialotentialotentialotential Gases Gases Gases Gases Adopt measures to reduce high global warming potential gases. High global warming potential (GWP) gases pose a unique challenge. Just a few pounds of high GWP materials can have the equivalent effect on global warming as several tons of carbon dioxide. For example, the average refrigerator has about a half-pound of refrigerant and about one pound of “blowing agents” used to make the insulating foam. If these gases were released into the atmosphere, they would have a global warming impact equivalent to five metric tons of CO2. High GWP chemicals are very common and are used in many different applications such as refrigeration, air conditioning systems, fire suppression systems, and the production of insulating foam. Because these gases have been in use for years, old refrigerators, air conditioners and foam insulation represent a significant “bank” of these materials yet to be released. High GWP gases are released primarily in two ways. The first is through leaking systems, and the second is during the disposal process. Once high GWP materials are released, they persist in the atmosphere for tens or even hundreds of years. Recommended measures to address this growing problem take the form of direct regulations and use of mitigation fees. ARB identified four Discrete Early Action measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the refrigerants used in car air conditioners, semiconductor manufacturing, air quality tracer studies, and consumer products. ARB has identified additional potential reduction opportunities based on specifications for future commercial and industrial refrigeration, changing the refrigerants used in auto air conditioning systems, and ensuring that existing car air conditioning systems as well as stationary refrigeration equipment do not leak. Recovery and destruction of high GWP materials in the banks described above could also provide significant reductions. 40 Although some of these emissions reductions may be additional, most of them are accounted for in the Energy, Waste, Water, and Transportation sectors. In addition, some of these reductions may occur out of state, making quantification more difficult. Because of this, these emissions reductions are not currently counted toward the AB 32 2020 goal. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 60 ARB is also proposing to establish an upstream mitigation fee on the use of high GWP gases. Even with the reductions from the specific high GWP measures described above, this sector’s emissions are still projected to more than double from current levels by 2020. This is because of the high growth in the sector due, in part, to the replacement of ozone-depleting substances being phased out of production. These emissions would be difficult to address via traditional approaches since the gases are used in small quantities in very diverse applications. Additionally, there are no proven substitutes or alternatives for some uses, and the relative low price of most high GWP compounds provides little incentive to develop alternatives, reduce leakage, or recover the gases at end-of-life. An upstream fee would ensure that the climate impact of these substances is reflected in the total cost of the product, encouraging reduced use and end-of-life losses, as well as the development of alternatives. The fee would be variable and associated with the impact the product makes on public health and the environment. This could encourage product innovation because fees would correspondingly decrease as the manufacturer or producer redesigned their product or found lower-cost alternatives. This mitigation fee would complement many of the downstream high GWP regulations currently being developed.41 Fees on high GWP gases would be set to be consistent with the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and could be set to reduce multiple environmental impacts. Revenues could be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions either from other high GWP compounds or other greenhouse gases. Table 19 summarizes the recommendations for measures in the High GWP sector. These measures address both high GWP gases identified in AB 32 and also other high GWP gases, such as ozone-depleting substances that are only partially covered by the Montreal Protocol. The emissions reductions shown are only for the six greenhouse gases explicitly identified in AB 32. 41 Industrial process emissions of high GWP gases are also expected to be part of the cap-and-trade program. As ARB moves through the rulemaking for both the high GWP fee and the cap-and-trade program, staff will evaluate whether these are complementary approaches or if one or the other needs to be adjusted to prevent duplicative regulation of the industrial process emissions of these gases. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 61 Table 19: High GWP Gases Sector Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions H-1 Motor Vehicle Air Conditioning Systems: Reduction of Refrigerant Emissions from Non-Professional Servicing (Discrete Early Action) 0.26 H-2 SF6 Limits in Non-Utility and Non-Semiconductor Applications (Discrete Early Action) 0.3 H-3 Reduction of Perfluorocarbons in Semiconductor Manufacturing (Discrete Early Action) 0.15 H-4 Limit High GWP Use in Consumer Products (Discrete Early Action) (Adopted June 2008) 0.25 H-5 High GWP Reductions from Mobile Sources · Low GWP Refrigerants for New Motor Vehicle Air Conditioning Systems · Air Conditioner Refrigerant Leak Test During Vehicle Smog Check · Refrigerant Recovery from Decommissioned Refrigerated Shipping Containers · Enforcement of Federal Ban on Refrigerant Release during Servicing or Dismantling of Motor Vehicle Air Conditioning Systems 3.3 H-6 High GWP Reductions from Stationary Sources · High GWP Stationary Equipment Refrigerant Management Program: o Refrigerant Tracking/Reporting/Repair Deposit Program o Specifications for Commercial and Industrial Refrigeration Systems · Foam Recovery and Destruction Program · SF6 Leak Reduction and Recycling in Electrical Applications · Alternative Suppressants in Fire Protection Systems · Residential Refrigeration Early Retirement Program 10.9 H-7 Mitigation Fee on High GWP Gases42 5 Total 20.2 42 The 5 MMTCO2E reduction is an estimate of what might occur with a fee in place. Additional emissions reductions from a fee would be expected as resulting revenues are used in mitigation programs. Using the funds to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions could substantially increase the emissions reductions from this measure. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 62 15. Recycling and Waste15. Recycling and Waste15. Recycling and Waste15. Recycling and Waste Reduce methane emissions at landfills. Increase waste diversion, composting, and commercial recycling. Move toward zero-waste. California has a long track record of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by turning waste into resources, exemplified by the waste diversion rate from landfills of 54 percent (which exceeds the current 50 percent mandate) resulting from recovery of recyclable materials. Re-introducing recyclables with intrinsic energy value back into the manufacturing process reduces greenhouse gas emissions from multiple phases of product production including extraction of raw materials, preprocessing and manufacturing. Additionally, by recovering organic materials from the waste stream, and having a vibrant compost industry, there is an opportunity to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the indirect benefits associated with the reduced need for water and fertilizer for California’s Agricultural sector. Incentives may also be an effective way to secure greenhouse gas emissions reductions in this sector. Table 20 summarizes the emissions reductions from Recycling and Waste sector. Reduction in Landfill Methane Reduction in Landfill Methane Reduction in Landfill Methane Reduction in Landfill Methane Methane emissions from landfills, generated when wastes decompose, account for one percent of California’s greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions can be substantially reduced by properly managing all materials to minimize the generation of waste, maximize the diversion from landfills, and manage them to their highest and best use. Capturing landfill methane results in greenhouse gas benefits, as well as reductions in other air pollutants such as volatile organic compounds. ARB is working closely with the California Integrated Waste Management Board (CIWMB) to develop a Discrete Early Action measure for landfill methane control that will be presented to ARB in January. CIWMB is also pursuing efforts to reduce methane emissions by diverting organics from landfills, and to promote best management practices at smaller uncontrolled landfills. Landfill gas may also provide a viable source of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vehicle fuel. Reductions from these types of projects would be accounted for in the Transportation sector. High Recycling / Zero WasteHigh Recycling / Zero WasteHigh Recycling / Zero WasteHigh Recycling / Zero Waste This measure reduces greenhouse gas emissions primarily by reducing the substantial energy use associated with the acquisition of raw materials in the manufacturing stage of a product’s life-cycle. As virgin raw materials are replaced with recyclables, a large reduction in energy consumption should be realized. Implementing programs with a systems approach that focus on consumer demand, manufacturing, and movement of products will result in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and other co-benefits. Reducing waste and materials at the source of generation, increased use of compost to benefit soils, coupled with increased recycling – especially in the commercial sector – and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 63 plus Environmentally Preferable Purchasing (EPP) also have the potential to reduce emissions, both in-state and within the connected global economy. This measure could also assist in meeting the 33 percent renewables energy goal through deployment of anaerobic digestion for production of fuels/energy. As noted by ETAAC, recycling in the commercial sector could be substantially increased. This could be implemented, for example, through voluntary or mandatory programs, including protocols, enhanced partnerships with local governments, and provision of appropriate financial incentives. ARB will work with CIWMB to develop and implement these types of programs. ARB will also work with CIWMB, the California Department of Food and Agriculture, the Department of Transportation, and others to provide direct incentives for the use of compost in agriculture and landscaping. Further, CIWMB will explore the use of incentives for all Recycling and Waste Management measures, including for commercial recycling and for local jurisdictions to encourage the collection of residentially and commercially-generated food scraps for composting and in-vessel anaerobic digestion. Table 20: Recycling and Waste Sector Recommendation - Landfill Methane Capture and High Recycling/Zero Waste (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions RW-1 Landfill Methane Control (Discrete Early Action) 1 RW-2 Additional Reductions in Landfill Methane · Increase the Efficiency of Landfill Methane Capture TBD RW-3 High Recycling/Zero Waste · Commercial Recycling · Increase Production and Markets for Compost · Anaerobic Digestion · Extended Producer Responsibility · Environmentally Preferable Purchasing 9 Total 10(43) 16. Sustainable Forests 16. Sustainable Forests 16. Sustainable Forests 16. Sustainable Forests Preserve forest sequestration and encourage the use of forest biomass for sustainable energy generation. The 2020 Proposed Scoping Plan target for California’s forest sector is to maintain the current 5 MMTCO2E of sequestration through sustainable management practices, including reducing the risk of catastrophic wildfire, and the avoidance or mitigation of land-use changes that reduce carbon storage. California’s Board of Forestry and 43 Reductions from RW-2 and RW-3 are not counted toward the AB 32 goal. ARB is continuing to work with CIWMB to quantify these emissions and determine what portion of the reductions can be credited to meeting the AB 32 2020 goal. These measures may provide greater emissions reductions than estimated. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 64 Fire Protection has the existing authority to provide for sustainable management practices, and will, at a minimum, work to maintain current carbon sequestration levels. The Resources Agency and its departments will also have an important role to play in implementing this measure. In addition, the Resources Agency is supporting voluntary actions, including expenditure of public funds for projects focused largely on conserving biodiversity, providing recreation, promoting sustainable forest management and other projects that also provide carbon sequestration benefits. The federal government must also use its regulatory authority to, at a minimum, maintain current carbon sequestration levels for land under its jurisdiction in California. Forests in California are now a carbon sink. This means that atmospheric removal of carbon through sequestration is greater than atmospheric emissions from processes like fire and decomposition of wood. However, several factors, such as wildfires and forest land conversion, may cause a decline in the carbon sink. The 2020 target would provide a mechanism to help ensure that current carbon stocks are, at a minimum, maintained and do not diminish over time. The 5 MMTCO2E emission reduction target is set equal to the magnitude of the current estimate of net emissions from California’s forest sector. As technical data improve, the target can be recalibrated to reflect new information. California’s forests will play an even greater role in reducing carbon emissions for the 2050 greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. Forests are unique in that planting trees today will maximize their sequestration capacity in 20 to 50 years. As a result, near-term investments in activities such as planting trees will help us reach our 2020 target, but will also play a greater role in reaching our 2050 goals. Monitoring carbon sequestered on forest lands will be necessary to implement the target. The Board of Forestry and Fire Protection, working with the Resources Agency, the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection and ARB would be tasked with developing a monitoring program, improving greenhouse gas inventories, and determining what actions are needed to meet the 2020 target for the Forest sector. Future climate impacts will exacerbate existing wildfire and insect disturbances in the Forest sector. These disturbances will create new uncertainties in reducing emissions and maintaining sequestration levels over the long-term, requiring more creative strategies for adapting to these changes. In the short term, focusing on sustainable management practices and land-use issues is a practical approach for moving forward. Future land use decisions will play a role in reaching our greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals for all sectors. Loss of forest land to development increases greenhouse gas emissions levels because less carbon is sequestered. Avoiding or mitigating such conversions will support efforts to meet the 2020 goal. When significant changes occur, the California Environmental Quality Act is a mechanism providing for assessment and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 65 Going forward there are a number of forestry-related strategies that can play an important role in California’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction efforts. Biomass resources from forest residue will factor into the expansion of renewable energy sources (this is currently accounted for in the Energy sector). Similarly, no reductions are yet attributed to future actions to reduce wildfire risk, but that accounting will be done following implementation. Additionally, public investments to purchase and preserve forests and woodlands would also provide greenhouse gas emission reductions that will be accounted for as projects are funded and urban forest projects can also provide the dual benefit of carbon sequestration and shading to reduce air conditioning load. Furthermore, the Forest sector currently functions as a source of voluntary reductions that would not otherwise occur and this role could expand even further in the future. ARB has already adopted a methodology to quantify reductions from forest projects, and recently adopted additional quantification methodologies. Table 21 summarizes the emission reductions from the forest measure. Table 21: Sustainable Forests Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions F-1 Sustainable Forest Target 5 Total 5 17. Water17. Water17. Water17. Water Continue efficiency programs and use cleaner energy sources to move and treat water. Water use requires significant amounts of energy. Approximately one-fifth of the electricity and one-third of the non-power plant natural gas consumed in the state are associated with water delivery, treatment and use. Although State, federal, and local water projects have allowed the state to grow and meet its water demands, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced if we can move, treat, and use water more efficiently. As is the case with energy efficiency, California has a long history of advancing water efficiency and conservation programs. Without this ongoing, critical work, baseline or business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions associated with water use would be much higher than is currently the case. Six greenhouse gas emission reduction measures are proposed for the Water sector, and are shown in Table 21. Three of the measures target reducing energy requirements associated with providing reliable water supplies and two measures are aimed at reducing the amount of non-renewable electricity associated with conveying and treating water. The final measure focuses on providing sustainable funding for II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 66 implementing these actions. The greenhouse gas emission reductions from these measures are indirectly realized through reduced energy requirements and are accounted for in the Electricity and Natural Gas sector. In addition, a mechanism to make allowances available in a cap-and-trade program could be used to provide additional incentives for local governments, water suppliers, and third party providers to bundle water and energy efficiency improvements. This type of allowance set-aside will be evaluated during the rulemaking for the cap-and- trade program. ARB recommends a public goods charge for funding investments in water management actions that improve water and energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions. As noted by the Economic and Technology Advancements Advisory Committee, a public goods charge on water can be collected on water bills and then used to fund end-use water efficiency improvements, system-wide efficiency projects, water recycling, and other actions that improve water and energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions. Depending on how the fee schedule is developed in a subsequent rulemaking process, a public goods charge could generate $100 million to $500 million annually. These actions would also have the co-benefit of improving water quality and water supply reliability for customers. Table 22: Water Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions W-1 Water Use Efficiency 1.4 W-2 Water Recycling 0.3 W-3 Water System Energy Efficiency 2.0 W-4 Reuse Urban Runoff 0.2 W-5 Increase Renewable Energy Production 0.9 W-6 Public Goods Charge TBD Total 4.8(44) 18. Agriculture18. Agriculture18. Agriculture18. Agriculture In the near-term, encourage investment in manure digesters and at the five-year Scoping Plan update determine if the program should be made mandatory by 2020. Encouraging the capture of methane through use of manure digester systems at dairies can provide emission reductions on a voluntary basis. This measure is also a 44 Greenhouse gas emission reductions from the water sector are not currently counted toward the 2020 goal. ARB anticipates that a portion of these reductions will be additional to identified reductions in the Electricity sector and is working with the appropriate agencies to refine the electricity/water emissions inventory. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 67 renewable energy strategy to promote the use of captured gas for fuels or power production. Initially, economic incentives such as marketable emission reduction credits, favorable utility contracts, or renewable energy incentives will be needed. Quantified reductions for this measure (shown in Table 23) are not included in the sum of statewide reductions shown in Table 2 since the initial approach is voluntary. ARB and the California Climate Action Registry worked together on a manure digester protocol to establish methods for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions reductions from individual projects; the Board adopted this protocol in September 2008. The voluntary approach will be re-assessed at the five-year update of the Scoping Plan to determine if the program should become mandatory for large dairies by 2020. Nitrogen fertilizer, which produces N2O emissions, is the other significant source of greenhouse gases in the Agricultural sector. ARB has begun a research program to better understand the variables affecting fertilizer N2O emissions (Phase 1), and based on the findings, will explore opportunities for emission reductions (Phase 2). There may be significant potential for additional voluntary reductions in the agricultural sector through strategies, such as those recommended by ETAAC. These opportunities include increases in fuel efficiency of on-farm equipment, water use efficiency, and biomass utilization for fuels and power production. Increasing carbon sequestration, including on working rangelands, hardwood and riparian woodland reforestation, also hold potential as a greenhouse gas strategies. As we evaluate the role that this sector can play in California’s emissions reduction efforts, we will explore the feasibility of developing sound quantification protocols so that these and other related strategies may be employed in the future. Table 23: Agriculture Recommendation (MMTCO2E in 2020) Measure No. Measure Description Reductions A-1 Methane Capture at Large Dairies45 1.0 Total 1.0 DDDD.... VolVolVolVoluntary Early Actions and Reductionsuntary Early Actions and Reductionsuntary Early Actions and Reductionsuntary Early Actions and Reductions Many individual activities that are not currently addressed under regulatory approaches can nevertheless result in cost-effective, real, additional, and verifiable greenhouse gas emissions reductions that will help California meet its 2020 target. Ensuring that appropriate credit is available to these types of emissions reduction projects will also help jump-start a new wave of technologies that will feature prominently in California and the world’s long-term efforts 45 Because the emission reductions from this measure are not required, they are not counted in the total. II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 68 to combat climate change. ARB will pursue several approaches that will recognize and reward these types of projects. 1. 1. 1. 1. Voluntary Early ActionVoluntary Early ActionVoluntary Early ActionVoluntary Early Action ARB is required to design regulations to encourage early action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to provide appropriate recognition or credit for that action. (HSC §38562(b)(1) and (3)) Recognizing and rewarding greenhouse gas emissions reductions that occur prior to the full implementation of the AB 32 program can set the stage for innovation by incentivizing the development and employment of new clean technologies and by generating economic and environmental benefits for California. In February 2008, ARB adopted a policy statement encouraging the early reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.46 The policy statement describes a process for interested parties to submit proposed emission quantification methodologies for voluntary greenhouse gas emissions reductions to ARB for review. The intent is to provide a rapid assessment of methodologies for evaluating potential greenhouse gas emissions reduction projects to encourage early actions. Where appropriate, ARB will issue Executive Orders to confirm the technical soundness of the methodologies, and the methodology would be available for use by other parties to demonstrate the creation of voluntary early reductions. ARB is currently in the process of evaluating a number of submitted project methodologies. ARB will provide appropriate credit for voluntary early reductions that can be adequately quantified and verified through three primary means. First, within the cap-and-trade program, ARB would set aside a certain number of allowances from the first compliance period to use to reward voluntary reductions that occur before 2012. In addition, ARB will assure that the allocation process in the first compliance period does not disadvantage facilities that have made reductions after AB 32 went into effect at the start of 2007 and before 2012.47 The third approach will be to design other regulations, to the extent feasible, to recognize and reward early action. These approaches are discussed in more detail in Appendix C. 2. Voluntary Reductions2. Voluntary Reductions2. Voluntary Reductions2. Voluntary Reductions Emissions reduction projects that are not otherwise regulated, covered under an emissions cap, or undertaken as a result of government incentive programs can generate “offsets.” These are verifiable reductions whose ownership can be 46Board Meeting Agenda. California Air Resources Board. February 28, 2008. http://www.arb.ca.gov/board/ma/2008/ma022808.htm (accessed October 12, 2008) 47 ARB will evaluate whether some reductions that occurred prior to AB 32 going into effect on January 1, 2007, should also receive credit under these rules. For example, many facilities in California registered with the California Climate Action Registry after its creation in 2002 to document early actions to reduce emissions by having a record of entities profiles and baselines. ARB will evaluate what reductions made prior to 2007 should be eligible for credit from the allowance set-aside as part of the cap-and-trade program rulemaking. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 69 transferred to others. Voluntary offset markets have recently flourished as a way for companies and individuals to offset their own emissions by purchasing reductions outside of their own operations. These sorts of voluntary efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can play an important role in helping the State meet its overall greenhouse gas reduction goals. ARB will adopt methodologies for quantifying voluntary reductions. (HSC §38571) The Board adopted a methodology for forest projects in October 2007, and for local government operations, urban forestry, and manure digesters in September 2008. The recognition of voluntary reduction or offset methodologies does not in any way guarantee that these offsets can be used for other compliance purposes. The Board would need to adopt regulations to verify and enforce reductions achieved under these or other approved methodologies before they could be used for compliance purposes. (HSC §38571) Allowance set-asides, in addition to being used to potentially reward voluntary early actions by facilities that will be included in the cap-and-trade program, could also be used to reward voluntary early action at other facilities not covered by the cap. An early action allowance set-aside could be utilized both by entities that are covered by the cap, and by those who develop emissions reducing projects outside of the cap, or purchase the reductions associated with those projects, and have not sold or used them. Additional discussion of voluntary offsets is included in Appendix C. EEEE.... Use of Allowances and RevenuesUse of Allowances and RevenuesUse of Allowances and RevenuesUse of Allowances and Revenues Revenues may be generated from the implementation of various proposed components of the Scoping Plan, including by the use of auctions within a cap-and-trade system or through the imposition of more targeted measures, such as a public goods charge on water. These revenues could be used to support AB 32 requirements for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and associated socio-economic considerations. This section summarizes some of the recommendations and ideas that ARB has received to date. As discussed in the description of the cap-and-trade measure above, ARB will seek input from a broad range of experts in an open public process regarding the options for allocation and revenue use under consideration. The Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC) recommended the creation of a California Carbon Trust as a possible mechanism for using revenues generated by the program, leveraged with private funds, to further the overall program goals. ETAAC’s recommendation is roughly based on the United Kingdom Carbon Trust. The United Kingdom program was established with public funds, but now functions as a stand- alone corporation, providing management and consulting services to corporations and small and medium businesses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It also funds innovations in carbon reduction technologies. ETAAC recommended the creation of a similar organization that would use revenue from the sale of carbon allowances or from carbon fees to: II. Recommended Actions Proposed Scoping Plan 70 · Fund research, development and demonstration projects, · Help bring promising and high potential technologies through the often challenging early stages of development and get them to market, · Manage the early carbon market and mitigate price volatility, purchasing credits and selling them or retiring them as needed, · Dedicate resources to fund projects to achieve AB 32 Environmental Justice goals, or · Support a green technology workforce training program. The most appropriate use for some of the allowances and revenue generated under AB 32 may be to retain it within or return it to the sector from which it was generated. For example, CEC and CPUC specifically recommended that significant portions of the revenue generated from the electricity sector under a cap-and-trade program be used for the benefit of that sector to support investments in renewable energy, efficiency, new energy technology, infrastructure, customer utility bill relief, and other similar programs. In the case of more targeted revenues from a public goods charge, the intent would be to use the funds for program purposes within the sector in which it was raised, for example in the water sector. ARB will seek input from a broad range of experts in an open public process, and will work with other agencies, the WCI partner jurisdictions, and stakeholders to consider the options for use of revenues from the AB 32 program. Possible uses of allowances and of the revenue generated under the program include: · Reducing costs of emissions reductions or achieving additional reductions – Funding energy efficiency and renewable resource development could lower overall costs to consumers and companies, and provide the opportunity to achieve greater emissions reductions than would otherwise be possible. Program revenues could be used to fund programs directly, or create financial incentives for others. · Achieving environmental co-benefits – Criteria and toxic air pollutants create health risks, and some communities bear a disproportionate burden from air pollution. Revenues could be used to enhance greenhouse gas emission reductions that also provide reductions in air and other pollutants that affect public health. · Incentives to local governments – Funding or other incentives to local governments for well-designed land-use planning and infrastructure projects could lead to shorter commutes and encourage walking, bicycling and the use of public transit. Funding of other incentives for local governments could also be used to increase recycling, composting, and to generating renewable energy from anaerobic digestion. · Consumer rebates – Utilities and other businesses could use revenues to support and increase rebate programs to customers to offset some of the cost associated with increased investments in renewable resources and to encourage increased energy efficiency. Proposed Scoping Plan II. Recommended Actions 71 · Direct refund to consumers – Revenue from the program could be recycled directly back to consumers in a variety of forms including per capita dividends, earned income tax credits, or other mechanisms. · Climate change adaptation programs – Climate change will impact natural and human environments. Program revenues could be used to help the state adapt to the effects of climate change which will be detailed in the State’s Climate Adaptation Strategy being prepared by the Resources Agency to be completed in early 2009. · Subsidies – Revenues could be used to reduce immediate cost impacts to covered industries required to make substantial upfront capital investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. · RD&D funding – Revenues could be used to support research, development, and deployment of green technologies. · Worker transition assistance – Regulating greenhouse gas emissions will probably shift economic growth to some sectors and green technologies and away from higher carbon intensity industries. Worker training programs could help the California labor force be competitive in these new industries. · Administration of a greenhouse gas program – A portion of revenues could be used to underwrite the State’s AB 32 programs and operating costs. · Direct emission reductions – Revenues could be used to purchase greenhouse gas reductions for the sole purpose of retirement, providing direct additional greenhouse gas emission reductions. Potential projects, such as afforestation and reforestation, would both sequester CO2 and provide other environmental benefits. Many of the potential uses of revenue would help ARB implement the community benefit section of the AB 32 (HSC §38565) which directs the Board, where applicable and to the extent feasible, to ensure that the greenhouse gas emissions reduction program directs public and private investment toward the most disadvantaged communities in California. Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 73 III.III.III.III. EVALUATIONSEVALUATIONSEVALUATIONSEVALUATIONS The primary purpose of the Scoping Plan is to develop a set of measures that will provide the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective greenhouse gas emission reductions. In developing this Plan, ARB evaluated the effect of these measures on California’s economy, environment, and public health. This Chapter outlines these analyses. ARB conducted broad evaluations of the potential impacts of the Scoping Plan, and will conduct more specific evaluations during regulatory development (HSC §38561(d), and HSC §38562(b)). Prior to inclusion of market-based compliance mechanisms in a regulation, to the extent feasible, the Board will consider direct, indirect and cumulative emission impacts, and localized impacts in communities that are already adversely impacted by air pollution (HSC §38570(b)). Based on the evaluation of the recommendations included in this Proposed Plan, implementing AB 32 is expected to have an overall positive effect on the economy. In addition, implementation of the measures in the Recommended Actions section (Chapter II) will reduce statewide oxides of nitrogen (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and atmospheric particulate matter (PM) emissions primarily due to reduced fuel consumption, with resulting public health benefits. ARB will also work at the measure-specific level to further maximize the public health benefits that can accompany implementation of greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies. The following sections provide a summary of the ARB evaluations of the recommended measures included in this Proposed Scoping Plan. More detailed information on the evaluations and their results are provided in Appendices G and H. AAAA.... EEEEconomic Modelingconomic Modelingconomic Modelingconomic Modeling To evaluate the economic impacts of the Scoping Plan, ARB compared estimated economic activity under a business-as usual (BAU) case to the results obtained when actions recommended in this Plan are implemented. The BAU case is briefly described below. The estimated costs and savings used as model inputs for individual measures are outlined in Appendix G, and additional documentation on the calculation of those costs and savings is provided in Appendix I. All dollar estimates are in 2007 dollars. Under the BAU case, Gross State Product (GSP) in California is projected to increase from $1.8 trillion in 2007 to almost $2.6 trillion in 2020. The results of our economic analysis indicate that implementation of the Scoping Plan will have an overall positive net economic benefit for the state. Positive impacts are anticipated primarily because the investments motivated by several measures result in substantial energy savings that more than pay back the cost of the investments at expected future energy prices. III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 74 The business-as-usual case is a representation of what the State of the California economy will be in the year 2020 assuming that none of the measures recommended in the Scoping Plan are implemented. While a number of the measures in the plan will be implemented as the result of existing federal or State policies and do not require additional regulatory action resulting from the implementation of AB 32, they are not included in the BAU case to ensure that the economic impacts of all of the measures in the Scoping Plan are fully assessed. The BAU case is constructed using forecasts from the California Department of Finance, the California Energy Commission, and other sources, and is described in more detail in Appendix G. ARB used a conservative estimate of future petroleum price in this analysis, $89 per barrel of oil in 2020. Aspects of the BAU case are subject to uncertainty, for example, the possibility that future energy prices could deviate from those that are included in the BAU case. 1. 1. 1. 1. MacroMacroMacroMacro----economic Modeling Resultseconomic Modeling Resultseconomic Modeling Resultseconomic Modeling Results Table 24 summarizes the key findings from the economic modeling. Gross State Product, personal income and employment are shown for 2007 and for two cases for 2020, the BAU case and for implementation of the Proposed Scoping Plan. For both the BAU case and the Scoping Plan case, Gross State Product increases by almost $800 billion between 2007 and 2020, personal income grows by 2.8 percent per year from $1.5 trillion in 2007 to $2.1 trillion in 2020, and employment grows by 0.9 percent per year from 16.4 million jobs in 2007 to 18.4 million (BAU) or 18.5 million (Scoping Plan) in 2020. The results consistently show that implementing the Scoping Plan will not only significantly reduce California’s greenhouse gas emissions, but will also have a net positive effect on California’s economic growth through 2020. Table 24: Summary of Key Economic Findings from Modeling the Scoping Plan Using E-DRAM Business-as-Usual* Scoping Plan Economic Indicator 2007 2020 Average Annual Growth 2020 Change from BAU Average Annual Growth Gross State Product ($Billion) 1,811 2,586 2.8% 2,593 0.3% 2.8% Personal Income ($Billion) 1,464 2,093 2.8% 2,109 0.8% 2.8% Employment (Million Jobs) 16.41 18.41 0.9% 18.53 0.7% 0.9% Emissions (MMTCO2E) 500** 596 1.4%** 422 -28% -1.2%** Carbon Prices (Dollars) - - - 10.00 NA - * Business-as-usual is a forecast of the California economy in 2020 without implementation of any of the measures identified in the Proposed Scoping Plan. ** Approximate value. ARB is in currently estimating greenhouse gas emissions for 2007. Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 75 The macroeconomic modeling results presented here understate the benefits of market-based policies, including the cap-and-trade program. Consequently, our estimate of the economic impact of implementing the Scoping Plan understates the positive impact on the California economy. Nonetheless, using the current best estimates of the costs and savings of the measures, which are documented in Appendix I, the models demonstrate that implementing the Plan will have a positive effect on California’s economy. The modeling results reflect a carbon price for the cap-and-trade program of $10 per- ton. It is important to note that the $10 per-ton figure does not reflect the average cost of reductions; rather it is the maximum price at which reductions to achieve the cap are pursued based on the marketing program. The positive impacts are largely attributable to savings that result from reductions in expenditures on energy. These savings translate into increased consumer spending on goods and services other than energy. Many of the measures entail more efficient use of energy in the economy, with savings that exceed their costs. In this way, investment in energy efficiency results in money pumped back into local economies. Table 25 summarizes the energy savings that are projected from implementation of the Scoping Plan. These savings are estimated to exceed $20 billion annually by 2020. Table 25: Fuels and Electricity Saved in 2020 from Implementation of the Scoping Plan Gasoline Diesel Electricity Natural Gas* Use Avoided** 4,600 million gallons 670 million gallons 74,000 GWh 3,400 million therms Value of Avoided Fuel Use (Million $2007) $17,000 $2,500 $6,400*** $2,700 Percent Reduction from BAU 25% 17% 22%**** 24% * Not including natural gas for electric generation. ** These estimates are based on reduced use of these fuels due to increased efficiencies, reduced vehicle miles travelled, etc. Changes to the fuel mix, such as those called for under the RPS or the LCFS, are not included here. These estimates are not the same as the estimates of reduced fuel consumption used in the public health analysis. *** Based on estimated avoided cost based on average base-load electricity, including generation, transmission and distribution. **** This is as a percentage of BAU total California electricity consumption in 2020. 2. 2. 2. 2. Impact on Specific Business Sectors Impact on Specific Business Sectors Impact on Specific Business Sectors Impact on Specific Business Sectors As indicated in Table 26 and Table 27, the effects of the Plan are not uniform across sectors. Implementation of the Scoping Plan would have the strongest positive impact on output and employment for the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, the III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 76 finance, insurance and real estate sector, and the mining sector. Similar to the statewide economic impacts projected by the model, however, these results also indicate that relative to the business-as-usual case, the impacts due to implementation of the Plan change current growth projections for most sectors by only very small amounts. Table 26 and Table 27 also show that a decrease in output is projected for the utility and retail trade sectors as compared to the business-as-usual case, and a decrease in employment is projected for the utility sector. In the utility sector, the modeling indicates that implementation of the Scoping Plan would significantly reduce the need for additional power generation and natural gas consumption, which subsequently reduces the growth in output for this sector. This results in a reduction from business- as-usual for economic output and employment of approximately 17 and 15 percent respectively in 2020. The primary reason for these projections is the implementation of efficiency measures and programs for both consumers and producers. While increasing spending on efficiency and renewable energy is expected to increase employment, many of the resulting jobs will not appear in the utility sector. The retail trade sector, which is projected to grow by nearly 50 percent in both the business-as-usual and the Scoping Plan case, is also projected to experience a slight net decline in output relative to business-as-usual. Since gasoline is considered a consumer retail purchase under this model, the reduced growth is mostly due to the decrease of approximately $19 billion in retail transportation fuel purchases, which is largely offset by the positive $14 billion increase in spending at other retail enterprises. Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 77 Table 26: Summary of Economic Output by Sector from Modeling the Scoping Plan Using E-DRAM Output ($Billions) Sector 2007 Business-as- Usual Scoping Plan Percent Change from BAU Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 76 109 113 3.9% Mining 27 29 31 7.2% Utilities 51 72 60 -16.7% Construction 114 164 166 1.7% Manufacturing 673 943 948 0.5% Wholesale Trade 120 171 173 1.0% Retail Trade 207 296 291 -1.6% Transportation and Warehousing 76 109 111 1.9% Information 164 235 238 1.1% Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 391 559 572 2.3% Services 636 910 927 1.9% Government - - - - Total 2,535 3,597 3,630 0.8% Table 27: Summary of Employment Changes by Sector from Modeling the Scoping Plan Using E-DRAM Employment (thousands) Sector 2007 Business-as- Usual Scoping Plan Percent Change from BAU Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 398 449 464 3.5% Mining 26 26 26 1.3% Utilities 60 67 57 -14.7% Construction 825 929 934 0.5% Manufacturing 1,821 2,046 2,057 0.5% Wholesale Trade 703 791 793 0.1% Retail Trade 1,688 1,901 1,916 0.8% Transportation and Warehousing 447 503 510 1.2% Information 398 448 450 0.4% Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 911 1,026 1,046 2.0% Services 5,975 6,729 6,773 0.7% Government 3,100 3,491 3,502 0.3% Total 16,352 18,405 18,528 0.6% III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 78 3. 3. 3. 3. Household ImpactsHousehold ImpactsHousehold ImpactsHousehold Impacts Implementation of the Scoping Plan will provide low- and middle-income households savings on the order of a few hundred dollars per year in 2020 compared to the business-as-usual case, primarily as a result of increased energy efficiencies. Low-Income Households: Based on current U.S. Department of Health and Human Services poverty guidelines, we evaluated the projected impacts of the plan on households with earnings at or below both 100 and 200 percent of the poverty guidelines. For all households, including those with incomes at 100 percent and 200 percent of the poverty level, implementation of the Scoping Plan produces a slight increase in per-capita income relative to the business-as-usual case. At the same time, the analysis projects an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs available for lower-income workers48 relative to business-as-usual as a result of implementing the Plan. The largest employment gains come in the retail, food service, agriculture, and health care fields. A decline in such jobs is projected in the retail gasoline sector due to the overall projected decrease in output from this sector. This decline, however, is more than offset by the increases experienced in other areas. Another important factor to consider when analyzing the impact of the Scoping Plan on households is how it will affect household expenditures. As indicated in Table 28, analysis based on the modeling projections estimates a savings (i.e., reduced expenditures) of around $400 per household in 2020 for low-income households under both federal poverty guideline definitions. These savings are driven primarily by the implementation of the clean car standards and energy efficiency measures in the Scoping Plan that over time are projected to outweigh potential increases in electricity and natural gas prices that may occur. As the measures in the Scoping Plan are implemented, ARB will work to ensure that the program is structured so that low income households can fully participate in and benefit from the full range of energy efficiency measures. Many of California’s energy efficiency efforts are targeted specifically at low income populations, and the CPUC’s Long Term Strategic Plan for energy efficiency has redoubled its objective for the delivery of energy efficiency measures to low income populations. Additional information regarding the data in Table 28 can be found in Appendix G. 48 Low-income jobs are defined as those with a median hourly wage below $15 per hour (2007 dollars) based on wage data and staffing pattern projections from the California Employment Development Department. The shares of low-wage occupations for each industry are then applied to the corresponding E-DRAM sector employment projections. Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 79 Table 28: Impact of Implementation of the Scoping Plan on Total Estimated Household Savings in 2020 (2007 $) Income at 100% of Poverty Guideline Income at 200% of Poverty Guideline Middle Income* High Income** All Households*** $400 $400 $500 $500 $500 * All households between 200% and 400% of the poverty guidelines. ** All households above 400% of the poverty guidelines. *** Average of households of all income levels. The analysis indicates that implementation of the Scoping Plan is likely to result in small savings for most Californians, with little difference across income levels. Largely due to increased efficiencies, low-income households are projected to be slightly better off from an economic perspective in 2020 as a result of implementing AB 32. Middle-Income Households: Implementation of the plan produces a small increase in household income across all income levels, including middle-income households, relative to the business-as-usual case.49 In terms of how jobs for middle-income households50 would be impacted, the modeling indicates a slight overall increase of almost 40,000 in 2020. As shown in Table 28, the analysis projects a net-savings in annual household expenditures of about $500 in 2020 for middle-income households. These savings are driven by the emergence of greater energy efficiencies that will be implemented as a result of the plan. 4. 4. 4. 4. WCI Economic AnalysisWCI Economic AnalysisWCI Economic AnalysisWCI Economic Analysis The Proposed Scoping Plan recommends that California develop a cap-and-trade program that links to the broader regional market being developed by the Western Climate Initiative (WCI). In order to examine the economic impacts of WCI program design options, WCI Partner jurisdictions contracted with ICF International and Systematic Solutions, Inc. (SSI) to perform economic analyses using ENERGY 2020, a multi-region, multi-sector energy model. The WCI economic modeling results are reported in full in Appendix D and are discussed in the Background Report on the Design Recommendations for the WCI Regional Cap-and-Trade Program, also included in Appendix D. To help inform the program design process, the WCI analysis examined the implications of key design decisions, including: program scope, allowance banking, 49 For purposes of our analysis we define "middle-income" households as those earning between 200% and 400% of the federal poverty guidelines. 50 Hourly wage between $15 and $30 per hour. III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 80 and the use of offsets. Due to time and resource constraints, the modeling was limited to the eight WCI Partner jurisdictions in the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) area, thereby excluding from the analysis three Canadian provinces, Manitoba, Quebec, and Ontario. Future analyses are planned that will integrate these provinces so that a full assessment of the WCI Partner jurisdictions can be performed. The WCI modeling work is not directly comparable to the ARB results reported here. The WCI analysis relies on a more aggregated set of greenhouse gas emissions reduction measures rather than the specific individual policies recommended in the Proposed Scoping Plan; it uses somewhat different assumptions regarding what measures are included in the “business-as-usual” case, and it models the entire WECC rather than California. Nevertheless, the results of the WCI modeling provide useful insight into the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies. Consistent with the conclusions of the ARB evaluation, overall the WCI analysis found that the WCI Partner jurisdictions can meet the regional goal of reducing emissions to 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 (equivalent to the AB 32 2020 target) with small overall savings due to reduced energy expenditures exceeding the direct costs of greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The savings are focused primarily in the residential and commercial sectors, where energy efficiency programs and vehicle standards are expected to have their most significant impacts. Energy-intensive industrial sectors are estimated to have small net costs overall (less than 0.5 percent of output). The WCI analysis does not examine the potential macroeconomic impacts of the costs and savings estimated with ENERGY 2020. The WCI Partner jurisdictions are planning to continue the analysis so that macroeconomic impacts, such as income, employment, and output, can be assessed. Once completed, the macroeconomic impacts can be compared to previous studies of cap-and-trade programs considered in the United States and Canada. B.B.B.B. Green TechnologyGreen TechnologyGreen TechnologyGreen Technology The development of green technologies and a trained workforce equipped to design, develop and deploy them will be key to the success of California’s long-term efforts to combat global warming. Bold, long-range environmental policies help drive innovation and investment in emission-reducing products and services in part by attracting private capital. Typically, the private sector under invests in research and development for products that yield public benefits. However, when environmental policy is properly designed and sufficiently robust to support a market for such products, private capital is attracted to green technology development as it is to any strategic growth opportunity. California’s leadership in environmental and energy efficiency policy has helped attract an increasing share of venture capital investment in green technologies. According to statistics from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the National Venture Capital Association, California’s Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 81 share of U.S. venture capital investment in innovative energy technologies increased dramatically from 1995 to 2007 (see Figure 5 below).51 The same period saw a stream of pioneering environmental policy initiatives, including energy efficiency codes for buildings and appliances, a renewables portfolio standard for electricity generation, climate change emissions standards for light-duty automobiles and, most recently, AB 32. Flows of venture capital into California are escalating as a direct result of the focus on reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. As mentioned above, California captured the largest single portion of global venture capital investment ($800 million out a total of two billion dollars) during the second quarter of 2008. Figure 5 California's Growing Share of Venture Capital Investment in Energy Innovation, 1995-2007 (current $, % share) $0 $200,000,000 $400,000,000 $600,000,000 $800,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,400,000,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 An n u a l V C I n v e s t m e n t 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% CA VC $ Linear (CA %) Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers MoneyTree Report, available at: [https://www.pwcmoneytree.com]. A survey of clean technology investors by Global Insight and the National Venture Capital Association found that public policy influences where venture capitalists invest.52 Furthermore, investments in green technology solutions produce jobs at a higher rate than 51 Based on historical trend data for the ‘Industrial/Energy’ industry for California and the United States from the PricewaterhouseCoopers MoneyTree Report. https://www.pwcmoneytree.com/MTPublic/ns/nav.jsp?page=historical (accessed October 12, 2008) 52 Clean Tech Entrepreneurs & Cleantech Venture Network LLC. Creating Cleantech Clusters: 2006 Update. May 2006. p.43 http://www.e2.org/ext/doc/2006%20National%20Cleantech%20FORMATTED%20FINAL.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 82 investments in comparable conventional technologies.53 Venture capitalists estimate that each $100 million in venture capital funding, over a period of two decades, helps create 2,700 jobs, $500 million in annual revenues, and many indirect jobs.54 Access to capital controlled by institutional investors is also enhanced by policies that encourage early adoption of green technologies. When California-based corporations use green technologies to reduce their exposure to climate change risk, institutional investors reward them by facilitating their access to capital. The Investor Network on Climate Risk – including institutional investors with more than $8 trillion of assets under management – endorsed an action plan in 2008 that calls for requiring asset managers to consider climate risks and opportunities when investing; investing in companies developing and deploying clean technologies; and expanding climate risk scrutiny by investors and analysts.55 Additional capital for green technologies helps drive increased employment, both indirectly, as energy savings are plowed back into other sectors of the economy, and directly, as new green products are successfully commercialized. McKinsey & Company projects average annual returns of 17 percent on global investments in energy productivity, and estimates the global investment opportunity at $170 billion annually through 2020.56 Meanwhile, global investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy has grown from $33 billion to more than $148 billion in the last four years. Beyond 2020, green technologies are expected to attract investment of more than $600 billion annually.57 In short, green technology is now a bona fide global growth industry. Today, green technology businesses directly employ at least 43,000 Californians, primarily in energy efficiency and energy generation, according to a 2008 study from the California Economic Strategy Panel. Green jobs are concentrated in manufacturing (41 percent), and 53 Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory. Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate? Energy and Resources Group/Goldman School of Public Policy at University of California, Berkeley. April 13, 2004. http://rael.berkeley.edu/old-site/renewables.jobs.2006.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 54 Report prepared for the National Venture Capital Association. Venture Impact 2004: Venture Capital Benefits to the U.S. Economy. Prepared by: Global Insight. June 2004. http://www.globalinsight.com/publicDownload/genericContent/07-20-04_fullstudy.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 55 The Investor Network on Climate Risk. Final Report, 2008 Investor Summit on Climate Risk. February 14, 2008. http://www.ceres.org//Document.Doc?id=331 (accessed October 12, 2008) 56 McKinsey Global Institute. The Case for Investing in Energy Productivity. McKinsey & Company. February, 2008. p.8 http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/pdfs/Investing_Energy_Productivity/Investing_Energy_Productivity.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 57 United Nations Environment Programme-New Energy Finance Ltd. Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2008: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 2008. p.12 ISBN: 978-92-807-2939-9 http://www.unep.fr/energy/act/fin/sefi/Global_Trends_____2008.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 83 professional, scientific and technical services (28 percent), with median annual earnings of $35,725 and $56,754, respectively.58 By 2030, under a moderate growth scenario, green businesses nationwide are expected to generate revenues of $2.4 trillion, (2006 dollars), and employ 21 million Americans.59 As a leader in green technology development and use, California has already realized substantial economic benefits from the adoption of energy efficiency policies. State energy efficiency measures have saved enough energy over the past 30 years to avoid construction of two dozen 500-megawatt power plants. Today, California’s per capita electricity consumption is 40 percent below the national average, and the carbon intensity of California’s economy is among the lowest in the nation.60 Renewable energy, such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, will also bring new employment opportunities to Californians while spurring economic growth. California enjoys significant comparative advantages for renewable energy: concentrated innovation resources, a large potential customer base, key natural resources such as reliable solar and wind, and supportive regulatory programs, including the California Renewables Portfolio Standard, the Million Solar Roofs Initiative, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, and the Solar Water Heating and Efficiency Act of 2007. Other researchers have estimated that under a national scenario with 15 percent renewables penetration by 2020, California will experience a net gain in direct employment of 140,000 jobs.61 Because investments in green technologies produce jobs at a higher rate than investments in conventional technologies, jobs losses that occur in traditional fossil fuel industries will be more than compensated for by gains in the clean energy sector. Furthermore, if California’s renewable energy suppliers field products that are sufficiently competitive to penetrate the export market, employment and earnings dividends for the state will also increase. California renewable energy industries servicing the export market can generate up to 16 times more employment than those that only manufacture for domestic 58 California Economic Strategy Panel with Collaborative Economics. Clean Technology and the Green Economy. March 2008. P.14-15 http://www.labor.ca.gov/panel/pdf/DRAFT_Green_Economy_031708.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 59 The American Solar Energy Society. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007. p.39 ISBN 978-0-89553-307-3 http://www.ases.org/images/stories/ASES-JobsReport- Final.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 60 California Energy Commission. 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report. Document No. CEC-100-2007-008- CMF. 2007. p. 3 http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007publications/CEC-100-2007-008/CEC-100-2007-008- CMF.PDF (accessed October 12, 2008) 61 Tellus Institute and MRG Associates. Clean Energy: Jobs for America’s Future. As cited in: Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate? Energy and Resources Group/Goldman School of Public Policy at University of California, Berkeley. April 13, 2004. http://rael.berkeley.edu/old-site/renewables.jobs.2006.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 84 consumption, according to a study by the Research and Policy Center of Environment California.62 C.C.C.C. CostCostCostCost----EffectivenessEffectivenessEffectivenessEffectiveness As noted in several provisions of AB 32, cost-effectiveness is an important requirement to be considered in the design and implementation of emission reduction strategies. (See HSC §§38505, 38560, 38561, 38562.) AB 32 defines “cost-effective” or “cost- effectiveness” as “the cost per unit of reduced emissions of greenhouse gases adjusted for its global warming potential.” (HSC §38505(d)) This definition specifies the metric (i.e., dollars per ton) by which the Board must express cost-effectiveness, but it does not provide criteria to assess if a regulation is or is not cost-effective. It also does not specify whether there should be a specific upper-bound dollar per ton cost that can be considered cost-effective, or how such a bound would be determined or adjusted over time. ARB has investigated different approaches that could be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of regulations and is recommending the following approach. The estimated cost per ton of greenhouse gas emissions reduced by the measures recommended in this Plan ranges from $-408 (net savings) to $133, with all but one (the Renewables Portfolio Standard) costing less than $55 per ton. The RPS is being implemented for energy diversity purposes, not just greenhouse gas reductions, and the $133 per ton figure does not take these other benefits into account. Therefore, it should not be used as a reference to define the range of cost-effective greenhouse gas measures. These estimates are based on the best information available as ARB prepared this Proposed Plan. Updated estimates and greater certainty will be provided as the measures are further developed during the rulemaking process. In the meantime, the current estimates provide a range illustrating the cost per ton of the mix of measures that collectively meet the 2020 target. This range will assist the Board in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of individual measures when considering adoption of regulations. The range of acceptable cost-effectiveness may change if effective lower-cost measures and options are identified. Because both the projections of “business-as-usual” 2020 emissions and the degree of reductions from any given measures may be greater or less than current estimates, the determination should remain flexible to accommodate a higher or lower estimate of cost-effectiveness. In addition, the approach must provide flexibility to pursue measures that simultaneously achieve policy objectives other than greenhouse gas emissions reduction (such as energy diversity). The criteria for judging cost-effectiveness will be updated as additional technological data and strategies become available. As ARB moves from adoption of the Scoping Plan to 62 Environment California Research and Policy Center. Renewable Energy and Jobs. Employment Impacts of Developing Markets for Renewables in California. July 2003. As cited in: Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Generate? Energy and Resources Group/Goldman School of Public Policy at University of California, Berkeley. April 13, 2004. http://rael.berkeley.edu/old- site/renewables.jobs.2006.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 85 developing specific regulations, and as regulations continue to be adopted, updated cost- effectiveness estimates will be established in a rigorous and transparent process with full stakeholder participation. As ARB progresses from proposed measures and estimated costs to actual regulations, the comparison of cost-effectiveness would move toward the well established practice of comparing the cost-effectiveness of new regulations to the cost- effectiveness of previously enacted and/or similar regulations. This approach is consistent with how cost-effectiveness is evaluated for strategies to reduce criteria and toxic pollutants. D.D.D.D. Small Business ImpactSmall Business ImpactSmall Business ImpactSmall Business Impact Small businesses play an important role in California’s economy. As required under AB 32, ARB analyzed the impact that implementation of the Scoping Plan would have on small businesses in the state. The analysis indicates that the primary impacts on small businesses as a result of AB 32 will come in the form of changes in the costs of goods and services that they procure, and in particular, changes in energy expenditures. Due to the number of measures in the plan that will deliver significantly greater energy efficiencies, our analysis projects that implementation of the plan will have a positive impact on small business in California even after taking into account the higher per-unit energy prices that are likely to occur between now and 2020. Small businesses also will benefit as a result of the robust economic growth and the increases in jobs, production, and personal income that are projected between now and 2020 as AB 32 is implemented. Additional information is provided in Appendix G. Recent analysis from Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) forecasts that a package of greenhouse gas emissions reduction measures similar to those recommended in this Plan would deliver a five percent decrease in electricity expenditures for the average California electricity customer relative to business-as-usual in 2020.63 This projection is based on the assumption that increases in electricity prices will be more than offset by the continued expansion of energy efficiency measures and that more efficient technologies will be developed and implemented.64 For purpose of this analysis, expenditures on natural gas are assumed to remain the same, balancing the projected 29 percent decrease in natural gas consumption in California with the model's projected natural gas price increase of almost 9 percent. Based on this assessment, implementation of the Scoping Plan will likely have minor but positive impacts on small businesses in the state. These benefits are attributable primarily to the measures in the plan that will deliver significantly greater energy and fuel efficiencies. Even when higher per unit energy prices are taken into account, these efficiencies will decrease overall energy expenditures for small businesses. Additionally, as previously described, the California economy is projected to experience robust economic growth 63 Based on their GHG Calculator, CPUC/CEC GHG Docket (CPUC Rulemaking.06.04.009, CEC Docket 07- OIIP-01), available at http://www.ethree.com/cpuc_ghg_model.html. 64 The E3 analysis focuses on direct programmatic measures and does not include the incremental price impact of the cap-and-trade program, which will depend upon allowance price, allocation strategy, the capped sector industry response, and other program design decisions. III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 86 between now and 2020 as AB 32 is implemented. Small businesses will experience many of the benefits associated with this growth in the form of more jobs, greater production activity, and rising personal income. The projected decrease in electricity expenditures is especially important for small businesses since they typically spend more on energy as a percentage of revenue compared to larger enterprises. For example, firms with a single employee spend approximately 3.3 percent of each sales dollar on electricity, while businesses with between ten and forty-nine employees spend around 1.2 percent. As a result, smaller businesses are likely to experience a greater relative benefit from decreased energy expenditures relative to their larger counterparts. From the broader economic perspective, these changes will make California more competitive as a location for small business, moving it from 7th highest to 19th among all states in terms of the percentage of revenue that businesses expend on electricity.65 As was noted above for low income households, care must be taken to ensure that the program is structured to allow small businesses to participate in and benefit from the energy efficiency measures. While ARB’s analysis indicates a positive impact on small businesses from AB 32 implementation, to ensure that these benefits are realized to the fullest potential it will take additional outreach and communication efforts on the part of ARB and many other state and local entities. There are a number of existing programs that are designed to help small businesses achieve greater efficiencies in energy use. These programs can be enhanced and expanded upon, and new programs and efforts can be developed to ensure that all small businesses in California are aware of and able to take cost-effective steps to reduce energy use and enjoy the associated economic savings. For example, as discussed more completely in Chapter IV, ARB and our partners in State government are working together to develop an on-line small business “toolkit” designed for small and medium-sized businesses to provide a one-stop shop of technical and financial information resources. As further development and implementation of the measures in the plan proceeds, we will work with other state and local partners to ensure that small businesses can both benefit from and play a role in helping to achieve our greenhouse gas emission reduction requirements. E.E.E.E. Public Health/Environmental Benefits AnalysesPublic Health/Environmental Benefits AnalysesPublic Health/Environmental Benefits AnalysesPublic Health/Environmental Benefits Analyses AB 32 requires ARB to evaluate the environmental and public health impacts of the Scoping Plan. The analysis of this plan is focused primarily on the quantification of public health benefits from air quality improvements that would result from implementation. Unlike traditional pollutants and toxic emissions, global warming pollutants do not typically have localized impacts. At ambient levels, carbon dioxide, which makes up over 80 percent of global warming pollutants in California, has no direct environmental or public health consequences. Climate change caused by greenhouse gas pollutants emitted in another state 65 Although the natural gas data is less specific, a similar scenario is expected where increased prices are typically offset by greater efficiencies for most small businesses. Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 87 or country has the same potential to damage our public health and the environment as does climate change due to pollutants emitted within California. Although this analysis does not consider the public health impacts of climate change, the potential public health impacts are great, and have been well documented elsewhere. However, many of the measures aimed at reducing global warming pollutants also provide co-benefits to public health and California’s natural resources. The environmental and cumulative impacts of the Plan are discussed in the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) document that is included in Appendix J. As the Scoping Plan is implemented, and specific measures are developed, ARB will conduct further CEQA analyses, including cumulative and multi-media impacts. As ARB further develops its approach for consideration of these issues in future rulemakings, and updates needed analytical tools and data sets, we will consult with outside experts and the EJAC. ARB recognizes that the adoption of the Scoping Plan will launch a variety of regulatory proceedings in many different venues. ARB will work closely with other California State agencies including: the Office of Planning and Research, Environmental Protection Agency, Resources Agency, Integrated Waste Management Board, Department of Public Health, Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, State Water Resources Control Board, Department of Toxic Substances Control, Department of Water Resources, Board of Forestry, Department of Fish and Game, Public Utilities Commission, California Energy Commission, and others to identify and address potential multi-media environmental impacts early in the regulatory development process. California’s actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will help transition the State to new technologies, improved efficiencies, and land use patterns also necessary to meet air quality standards and other public health goals. California’s challenging public health issues associated with air pollution are already the focus of comprehensive regulatory and incentive programs. These programs are reducing smog forming pollutants and toxic diesel particulate matter at a rapid pace. However, to meet increasingly stringent air quality standards and air toxics reduction goals, transformative changes are needed in the 2020 timeframe and beyond. Implementation of AB 32 will provide additional support to existing State efforts devoted to protecting and improving public health. 1. 1. 1. 1. Key Air QuaKey Air QuaKey Air QuaKey Air Qualitylitylitylity----Related Public Health BenefitsRelated Public Health BenefitsRelated Public Health BenefitsRelated Public Health Benefits The primary direct public health benefits of the Proposed Scoping Plan are reductions in smog forming emissions and toxic diesel particulate matter. The most significant reductions are of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), which forms both ozone and particulate pollution (PM2.5), and directly emitted PM2.5, which includes diesel particulate matter. The analysis focuses on PM2.5 impacts and quantifies 2020 public health benefits of this plan in terms of avoided premature deaths, hospitalizations, respiratory effects, and lost work days. Additional benefits associated with the reductions in ozone forming emissions were not quantified since statewide 2020 photochemical modeling is not available. III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 88 The estimated air quality-related public health benefits of the Proposed Scoping Plan are above and beyond the much greater benefits of California’s existing programs, which are reducing air pollutant emissions every year. This continuing progress is the result of California’s plans for meeting air quality standards (“State Implementation Plans” or SIPs), reducing emissions from goods movement activities, and addressing health risk from diesel particulate matter. These programs address both existing and new sources of air pollution, taking into account population and economic growth. The additional benefits of the Proposed Scoping Plan in 2020 are significant, and in the longer term, can be expected to increase with further reductions in fossil fuel combustion, the primary basis for the estimated public health benefits. The recommended measures in the Proposed Scoping Plan that reduce smog forming (“criteria”) pollutants are shown in Table 29 along with the estimated reductions. Statewide, these measures would reduce approximately 61 tons per day of NOx and 15 tons per day of PM2.5 in 2020. As shown in Table 30, this equates to an estimated air quality-related public health benefit of 400 avoided premature deaths statewide. In comparison, reductions in PM2.5 from California’s existing programs and 2007 SIP measures are estimated to result in 3,700 avoided premature deaths statewide in the same timeframe. Table 29: Statewide Criteria Pollutant Emission Reductions in 2020 from Proposed Scoping Plan Recommendation66666666 (tons per day) Measure NOx PM2.5 Light-Duty Vehicle · Pavley I and Pavley II GHG Standards · Vehicle Efficiency Measures 1.6 1.4 Goods Movement Efficiency Measures 16.9 0.6 Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicle GHG Emission Reduction · Aerodynamic Efficiency · Hybridization · Engine Efficiency 5.6 0.2 Local Government Actions and Regional Targets 8.7 1.4 Energy Efficiency and Conservation (Electricity) 7.0 4.0 Energy Efficiency and Conservation (Natural Gas) 10.4 0.8 Solar Water Heating 0.3 0.03 Million Solar Roofs 1.0 0.6 Renewables Portfolio Standard 9.8 5.6 Total 61 15 66 Table 29 does not include the criteria pollutant co-benefits of additional greenhouse gas reductions that would be achieved from the proposed cap-and-trade regulation because we cannot predict in which sectors they would be achieved. Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 89 Table 30: Estimates of Statewide Air Quality-Related Health Benefits in 2020 Health Endpoint Health Benefits of Existing Measures and 2007 SIP mean Health Benefits of Recommendations in the Proposed Scoping Plan mean Avoided Premature Death 3,700 400 Avoided Hospital Admissions for Respiratory Causes 770 84 Avoided Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Causes 1,400 150 Avoided Asthma and Lower Respiratory Symptoms 110,000 11,000 Avoided Acute Bronchitis 8,700 910 Avoided Work Loss Days 620,000 67,000 Avoided Minor Restricted Activity Days 3,600,000 380,000 In addition to the quantified air-quality-related health benefits, our analysis indicates that implementation of the Proposed Scoping Plan can deliver other public health benefits as well. These include potential health benefits associated with local and regional transportation-related greenhouse gas targets that can facilitate greater use of alternative modes of transportation, such as walking and bicycling. These types of moderate physical activities reduce many serious health risks including coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension and obesity.67 Finally, it is important to note that the steps California is taking to address global warming, along with actions by other regions, states, and nations, will help mitigate the public health effects of heat waves, more widespread incidence of illness and disease, and other potentially severe impacts. The measures in the Proposed Scoping Plan are designed primarily to help spur the transition to a lower carbon economy. However, in addition to improving air quality, these measures can also improve California’s environmental resources, including land, water, and native species. Land resources will be affected by regional transportation-related targets leading to improved land use planning, and forest carbon sequestration targets which can result in better stewardship of California lands and reduced wildfire risk. A number of conservation measures will aid in effective management of the State’s precious water resources. Demand for waste disposal and hazardous materials should decrease as measures to encourage recycling and reuse transform our wastes into fuel, energy, and other useful products are implemented. Additional analysis of the way that implementation of the Scoping Plan will impact these environmental resources will be conducted as we proceed. Many of these measures serve the dual purpose of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and helping California adapt to the impacts of climate change. 67 Appendix H contains a reference list of studies documenting the public health benefits of alternative transportation. III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 90 2. 2. 2. 2. Approach Approach Approach Approach ARB quantified the potential reductions of NOx and PM2.5 from implementation of the Proposed Plan’s recommendations, and the public health benefits associated with the resulting potential air quality improvement. These analyses compare NOx and PM2.5 emissions in 2020 with the implementation of the Scoping Plan with NOx and PM2.5 emissions in 2020 in the absence of the Scoping Plan – a “business-as-usual” scenario. The methodology used to evaluate the public health benefits of the emission reductions is similar to the methodology used in ARB’s 2006 Goods Movement Emission Reduction Plan (GMERP).68 This methodology is based on a peer-reviewed methodology developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). ARB augmented U.S. EPA’s methodology by incorporating the result of new epidemiological studies relevant to California’s population, including regionally specific studies, as they became available. AB 32 directs ARB to conduct several levels of analysis as we proceed through the development and implementation of a comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategy. As part of the Scoping Plan development, ARB is required to assess both the economic and non-economic impacts of the plan as noted above. Additionally, AB 32 requires ARB to undertake additional analysis at the time of adoption of regulations, including market-based compliance mechanisms. Although not yet at the stage of regulatory development and adoption, in this analysis ARB conducted an evaluation of the air quality-related public health benefits associated with the Proposed Scoping Plan based on a community level emissions analysis example. As regulations that rely on market-based compliance mechanisms are further developed for consideration by the Board, more detail about the specific regulatory proposals will be developed, enabling ARB to more closely evaluate the potential for direct, indirect and cumulative impacts. 3. 3. 3. 3. Existing Programs for Air Quality ImExisting Programs for Air Quality ImExisting Programs for Air Quality ImExisting Programs for Air Quality Improvement in Californiaprovement in Californiaprovement in Californiaprovement in California The public health analysis of the Proposed Scoping Plan presents air-quality benefits that will occur in addition to the benefits of California’s comprehensive air quality programs designed to meet health-based standards and reduce health risk from air toxics. It is also important to note that under both a “business-as-usual” scenario and under the implementation of the Proposed Scoping Plan, the population and economy of California are projected to continue to grow. New businesses and industries will continue to be sited in California, bringing both economic opportunity and potential environmental impacts. Federal, State, and local laws and regulations have established requirements to ensure that new and modified sources of pollution are carefully evaluated and that significant impacts are mitigated. Emissions from existing businesses are also tightly controlled by local air pollution control districts. 68 Air Resources Board. Technical Supplement on Health Analysis. Technical Supplement on Quantification of the Health Impacts and Economic Valuation of Air Pollution from Ports and Goods Movement in California. March 2006 http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/gmerp/gmerp.htm (accessed October 12, 2008) Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 91 Statewide programs are in place to reduce emissions from cars, trucks, and off-road equipment, along with smog check, cleaner gasoline and diesel fuels, and regulations to reduce evaporative emissions from consumer products, paints, and refueling. Additional information about the existing regulatory framework for sources of air pollution is provided in Appendix H. It is important to evaluate the air quality and public health benefits of the Proposed Scoping Plan in the context of the State’s on-going air quality improvement efforts. California’s long-standing air pollution control programs have substantially improved air quality in the state and will continue to do so in the future. By 2020, these programs will deliver reductions in statewide NOx emissions of 441 tons per day and direct fine particle emission reductions of 34 tons per day. Through 2020, three key ARB efforts will deliver deep reductions in air pollutant emissions despite continuing growth: · Diesel Risk Reduction Plan · Goods Movement Emission Reduction Plan · 2007 State Implementation Plan Measures in these plans will result in the accelerated phase-in of cleaner technology for virtually all of California’s diesel engine fleets including trucks, buses, construction equipment, and cargo handling equipment at ports. Adoption and implementation of these and other measures are critical to achieving clean air and public health goals statewide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has set a new, more stringent, national ambient air quality standard for ozone that will have compliance deadlines well past 2020 for the most severely impacted areas like southern California.69 The unmitigated impacts of climate change will make it harder to meet this standard and to provide healthful air to Californians. 4. 4. 4. 4. Statewide AnalysisStatewide AnalysisStatewide AnalysisStatewide Analysis For this evaluation, ARB examined the recommended measures to determine the potential for impacts on air, land, water, native species and biological resources, and waste and hazardous materials. Local government, State government, and green building sectors were not included in this evaluation as they represent means of implementation of the greenhouse gas emission reduction measures. As noted, the main focus of this analysis is on air quality. To the extent feasible, ARB quantified estimated emissions reductions in criteria pollutants associated with each recommended measure except cap-and-trade. Reductions in NOx and PM2.5 were used to estimate public health benefits. The estimated statewide reductions are 69 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone. Final Rule. 73 Federal Register 16436. March 27, 2008. http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA-AIR/2008/March/Day- 27/a5645.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 92 61 tons per day of NOx and 15 tons per day of PM2.5. Further analysis of the potential criteria pollutant benefits of a cap-and-trade program will be done as part of regulatory development. 5. 5. 5. 5. Regional Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example Regional Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example Regional Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example Regional Assessment: South Coast Air Basin Example In order to assess potential air quality benefits of the Proposed Scoping Plan on a regional level, ARB evaluated associated criteria pollutant reductions in the South Coast Air Basin as an example case. Existing programs will reduce current NOx emissions by almost 50 percent in 2020. With the new 2007 SIP measures, NOx emissions will be reduced almost 60 percent. Because of the large population and high pollutant concentrations in this region, greater benefits occur from each ton of pollution reduced. The estimated air quality-related public health benefits of the Proposed Scoping Plan for the South Coast region are shown in Table 31. The significant air quality-related public health benefits in this region are largely attributed to the additional reductions in PM2.5. Table 31: Estimated Air Quality-Related Health Benefits of Existing Program, 2007 SIP, and Proposed Scoping Plan in the South Coast Air Basin, 2020 6. 6. 6. 6. Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example Community Level Assessment: Wilmington Example ARB also conducted an evaluation of the potential air quality impacts of the Proposed Scoping Plan in the community of Wilmington as an illustration of the potential for localized impacts. Wilmington is in southern Los Angeles County and includes a diverse range of stationary and mobile emissions sources, including the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, railyards, major transportation corridors, refineries, power plants, and other industrial and commercial operations. Like the regional analysis, additional emission reductions from the 2007 SIP were estimated and show significant reductions in Wilmington by 2020 – approximately a 45 percent reduction in NOx and a 40 percent reduction in directly-emitted PM2.5. Mobile source emissions are projected to continue to be proportionately greater than stationary source emissions in 2020 even as mobile source emissions decline. Health Impacts / Scenario Benefits from Existing Program Additional Benefits from 2007 SIP Additional Co- Benefits from Proposed Scoping Plan Premature Deaths Avoided 1,600 920 200 Hospitalizations Avoided – Respiratory 330 200 42 Hospitalizations Avoided – Cardiovascular 610 360 78 Asthma & Lower Respiratory Symptoms Avoided 46,000 28,000 5,900 Acute Bronchitis Avoided 3,800 2,300 490 Work Loss Days Avoided 270,000 160,000 35,000 Minor Restricted Activity Days Avoided 1,600,000 940,000 200,000 Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 93 For this assessment, ARB evaluated criteria pollutant emission reductions in the Wilmington study area assuming that the source-specific quantified measures are implemented, including measures to reduce emissions from oil and gas extraction and refineries. It was further assumed that the non-source specific program elements, such as the proposed cap-and-trade program, result in a 10 percent reduction in fuel combustion by affected sources within the study area. For example, it is estimated that industrial sources would achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions through efficiency measures that reduce on site fuel use by 10 percent either in response to a cap-and-trade program, or due to the results of the facility energy efficiency audits. While it is likely that the actual onsite reductions will differ across individual facilities from the assumed uniform ten percent reduction,70 the analysis identifies how reductions at these facilities affect the overall level of co-benefits. The estimated NOx co-benefit of about 1.7 tons per day is small relative to the projected reductions of 24 tons per day that will occur as a result of the SIP and other measures. For example, an 8 ton per day NOx reduction is expected from cleaner port trucks. In comparison, the potential NOx benefit from a 10 percent efficiency improvement in major goods movement categories is estimated at about 1.5 tons per day. The estimated PM2.5 co-benefits, on the order of 0.12 tons per day, are also small relative to the projected reductions of 2.3 tons per day that will occur as a result of the SIP and other measures. Approximately 30 percent (0.04 ton per day) of the PM 2.5 co-benefit reduction is associated with assumed energy efficiency measures at the four large refineries in the study area, while another 30 percent would occur due to a 10 percent efficiency improvement by goods movement sources. The co-benefit emissions reductions in the study area would produce regional air quality-related health benefits. A relatively small portion of these benefits would occur in the study area (approximately 300,000 area residents). Health benefits due to reductions in NOx are mostly at the regional levels, since NOx emissions have usually travelled some distance before they are transformed into PM via atmospheric reactions. Point source combustion PM emissions persist in the atmosphere and increase exposures both in the area where they are emitted and broadly throughout the region. Based on previous modeling studies of the impact of port and rail yard PM emissions in the South Coast Air Basin conducted by ARB, PM exposures will be reduced far beyond the study area, and a majority of the health benefits are expected to occur in areas outside of the Wilmington community.71 Using the previously described methodology that correlates emission reductions in the air basin with expected regional health benefits there would be an estimated 70 The reductions at any one facility could be much greater or lesser than 10 percent For example, very small or no reductions might occur because available cost-effective industrial emission reductions have already been implemented at a particular site. 71 ARB analysis indicates that about 20 percent of the health benefits would occur in the Wilmington area. III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 94 11 avoided premature deaths attributed to emission reductions that occur in Wilmington as a result of the Scoping Plan.72 F.F.F.F. Summary of Societal Benefits Summary of Societal Benefits Summary of Societal Benefits Summary of Societal Benefits AB 32 requires ARB to “consider the overall societal benefits, including reductions in other air pollutants, diversification of energy sources, and other benefits to the economy, environment, and public health” (HSC § 38562(b)(6)) when developing regulations to implement the Scoping Plan. ARB conducted an initial assessment of societal benefits associated with AB 32 implementation. This section summarizes those that have been identified during development of the Scoping Plan, including diversification of energy sources, mobility, regressivity, and job creation. More detailed economic and environment/public health analyses can be found in Appendix G and H, respectively. The impact of low income households (regressivity), impacts on small businesses, and impact on jobs are described in the Economic Analysis section and Appendix G. 1. 1. 1. 1. Energy DiversificationEnergy DiversificationEnergy DiversificationEnergy Diversification Generally, energy-related measures in this Proposed Scoping Plan are expected to result in a transformation of the State’s energy portfolio, driven primarily by the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which addresses transportation fuel, and the 33 percent RPS, which increases renewably-produced electricity production and distribution to households and businesses. The LCFS aims to achieve at least a 10 percent reduction in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. As the State moves toward less dependence upon one source of fuel for transportation, our economy will be less at risk from significant fluctuations in fuel prices. Measures within the Scoping Plan will force energy diversification in California toward low-carbon intensive energy sources and encourage significant growth in infrastructure, capital, and investment in biofuels. The move toward 33 percent renewables will, by definition, increase the diversification of California’s electrical supply. Increased use of wind, solar, geothermal and biomass (including from the organic fraction of municipal solid waste) generation will all add to ensuring the state has a broader portfolio of energy inputs. Based on ARB’s economic analysis, the combined energy diversification and increased energy efficiency expected from implementation of the Scoping Plan is predicted to result in: a 25 percent decrease in gasoline usage (4.6 billion gallons), a 17 percent decrease in diesel fuel use (670 million gallons), a 22 percent decrease in electricity (74,000 GWh reduction) and a 24 percent reduction in natural gas (3,400 therms). 72 See Appendix H Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 95 The cap-and-trade program, offsets, and other measures that contain market-based features may also help diversify California’s energy portfolio by incentivizing the development and deployment of clean and efficient energy generating technologies. 2. 2. 2. 2. Mobility and Shifts in LandMobility and Shifts in LandMobility and Shifts in LandMobility and Shifts in Land Use Patterns Use Patterns Use Patterns Use Patterns Mobility is analyzed through multiple approaches in the Proposed Scoping Plan. Appendix C includes an analysis of a proposed measure for regional transportation- related greenhouse targets. Reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are expected to result from regional and local planning which target land use, building and zoning improvements. As the Scoping Plan is implemented, measures that support shifts in land use patterns are expected to emphasize compact, low impact growth in urban areas over development in greenfields. Communities could realize benefits, such as improved access to transit, improved jobs-housing balance, preservation of open spaces and agricultural fields, and improved water quality due to decreased runoff. Local and regional strategies promoting appropriate land use patterns could encourage fewer miles traveled, lowering emissions of greenhouse gases, criteria pollutants and PM. More compact communities with improved transit service could increase mobility, allowing residents to easily access work, shopping, childcare, health care and recreational opportunities. Furthermore, if open spaces and desirable locations become more accessible and communities are designed to encourage walkability between neighborhoods and shopping, entertainment, schools and other destinations, residents are likely to increase their levels of physical activity. Research shows that regular physical activity can reduce health risks, including coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, anxiety and depression, and obesity. Measures in the Proposed Scoping Plan encourage Californians to use alternatives to personal vehicle travel that could result in increased personal exercise. To complement these changes, future community developments may evolve to include trails and pedestrian access to major centers. However, where compact development may increase proximity to large sources of pollution, such as high traffic arterials, distribution centers, and industrial facilities, it will be critical to analyze the anticipated and unanticipated impacts and benefits, to ensure that increases in exposure to vehicular air pollution and other toxics and particulates do not occur . G.G.G.G. California Environmental Quality Act California Environmental Quality Act California Environmental Quality Act California Environmental Quality Act Functional Equivalent Functional Equivalent Functional Equivalent Functional Equivalent DocumentDocumentDocumentDocument The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and ARB policy require an analysis to determine the potential adverse environmental impacts of proposed projects. ARB’s analysis of the potential adverse environmental impacts of the Proposed Scoping Plan is presented in Appendix J. The analysis summarizes and discusses the specific strategies in the Scoping Plan that, if adopted and implemented, will reduce greenhouse gas emissions throughout the III. Evaluations Proposed Scoping Plan 96 state. The evaluation is programmatic by necessity; it allows consideration of broad policy alternatives and program-wide mitigation measures at a time when an agency has greater flexibility to deal with basic problems of cumulative impacts. A programmatic document also plays an important role in establishing a structure within which future reviews of related actions can be effectively conducted. The Secretary of California’s Resources Agency determined that ARB meets the criteria for a Certified Regulatory Program and requires ARB to prepare a substitute document. This functionally equivalent document (FED) is intended to disclose potential adverse impacts and identify mitigation measures specific to the actions identified in the Proposed Scoping Plan. The analysis generally found that the proposed Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Renewables Portfolio Standard and Water measures have the most potential to cause adverse environmental impacts due to the potential for land conversion when projects are undertaken. Additional environmental analysis will be needed when regulations are adopted and at the individual project level to identify mitigation for project specific impacts. H.H.H.H. Administrative Burden Administrative Burden Administrative Burden Administrative Burden ARB conducted a assessment of the administrative burden of implementing the Proposed Scoping Plan recommendation. (HSC §38562 (b)(7)) The recommendation calls for ARB to develop a cap-and-trade program – a market-based regulatory program to cap and reduce emissions from the Industrial, Electricity, Natural Gas, and Transportation sectors. This program would require stringent monitoring and reporting on the part of the regulated community, and comprehensive enforcement on the part of ARB. Sources under the cap would need to analyze the best approach for their company to comply with a cap – assessing the cost of reducing emissions and comparing that to the cost of purchasing emission reductions in a market. Although ARB has not previously developed this type of market regulation, there is extensive experience to draw upon from within California, nationally, and internationally. In addition, the other regulatory components of the recommendation would require ARB and other State agencies to adopt a series of measures requiring regulatory development, outreach to stakeholders and the public, implementation by industry, and enforcement for numerous measures and programs. I.I.I.I. De Minimis Emission ThresholdDe Minimis Emission ThresholdDe Minimis Emission ThresholdDe Minimis Emission Threshold A minimum level at which regulations are determined not to apply is termed the ‘de minimis threshold.’ In recommending a de minimis level, ARB must take into account the relative contribution of each source or source category to statewide greenhouse gas emissions and the adverse effect on small business. (HSC §38561(e)) This threshold acts as a buffer below which the burden of regulation is determined to outweigh the potential harmful effect of the minimal level of emissions. However, it should not be assumed that an individual source of greenhouse gas emissions that is minimal if taken by itself will fall below the threshold. ARB often looks at the aggregate emissions from a source category or related source category when determining regulatory applicability. A source category may be evaluated as the aggregate of businesses doing the same type of work (e.g., semiconductor manufacturers), a type of equipment (cargo handling equipment, Proposed Scoping Plan III. Evaluations 97 cars), a process or product (cans of pressurized duster), or other aggregated sources of emissions. Emissions of greenhouse gases from any individual entity within these source categories by themselves could be small. However, when emissions from the source category are evaluated, the relative contribution to climate change can be significant. As ARB developed the Proposed Scoping Plan, potential measures were evaluated against criteria that included the relative contribution of the source to climate change. After this review and considering the level of emissions needed to meet the 1990 target established by AB 32, ARB recommends a de minimis level 0.1 MMTCO2E annual emissions per source category.73 Source categories whose total aggregated emissions are below this level are not proposed for emission reduction requirements in the Proposed Scoping Plan but may contribute toward the target via other means. ARB and other agencies implementing measures included in the Scoping Plan should carefully consider this de minimis level in developing regulations, and only regulate smaller source categories if there is a compelling necessity. As each regulation to implement the Scoping Plan is developed, ARB and other agencies will consider more specific de minimis levels below which the regulatory requirements would not apply. These levels will consider the cost to comply, especially for small businesses, and other factors. 73 The Forest sector was not included in determining the de minimis level because this sector serves both as a source and a sink for carbon, making the concept of a de minimis level less applicable. Proposed Scoping Plan IV. Implementation 99 IV.IV.IV.IV. IMPLEMENTATION: Putting the Plan into ActionIMPLEMENTATION: Putting the Plan into ActionIMPLEMENTATION: Putting the Plan into ActionIMPLEMENTATION: Putting the Plan into Action Adoption of this Scoping Plan will be a groundbreaking step forward for California. However it is only the beginning of a journey that will last for decades, gradually moving the State into a low-carbon, clean energy future. Putting the Scoping Plan into action will be challenging but with adequate commitment and leadership from Californians up and down the state, it will be a success. A.A.A.A. Personal ActionPersonal ActionPersonal ActionPersonal Action The greenhouse gas emission reductions required under AB 32 cannot be realized without the active participation of the people of California. While many of the measures in this Plan must be taken by large sources of emissions, such as power plants and industrial facilities, it is the voluntary commitment and involvement of millions of individuals and households throughout the State that will truly make this California’s Plan. Shifts in individual choices and attitudes drive changes in the economy and in institutions. This dynamic of changing individual behavior will influence California’s effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, as market forces and environmental awareness encourage more people to drive low-greenhouse gas emitting vehicles, the auto manufacturers will respond with more innovative models and more intensive research. Regulations requiring auto manufacturers to provide these cars will complement the market demand. This means that thinking about climate change and our carbon footprint will naturally become part of how individuals make decisions about travel, work, and recreation. Some families may choose to purchase a more efficient vehicle when it comes time to replace their current model. Households may choose to lower their thermostat to 68 degrees Fahrenheit during the colder months, and raise it to 78 degrees when air conditioning is required. Some households may choose to swap out incandescent light bulbs for more efficient compact fluorescent lights. Others may choose to install solar water heaters, or arrays of solar electric panels on their roofs to take advantage of renewable energy, and lower their household energy bills. Many households may choose to plant trees to shade and cool their homes, and use landscaping and plants that require less water. This Proposed Plan recommends measures that will help support many of these individual decisions to improve energy efficiency. Statewide measures and regional efforts will result in programs to promote public transportation or riding in carpools, subsidize the purchase of energy efficient appliances, or provide incentives to better insulate and weatherize older homes. ARB is fully committed to assuring California consumers have the widest possible choice of vehicles that emit fewer greenhouse gases than today’s models, including the most advanced technology vehicles produced anywhere in the world. IV. Implementation Proposed Scoping Plan 100 Californians have embraced statewide programs that support positive change in home and business behavior. In less than two decades, separating household waste and recycling at home and work have become commonplace, as has the widespread purchase of appliances with the Energy Star label to save energy. Reducing our carbon footprint by moving toward a cleaner more efficient economy will produce a wide range of benefits to individuals, through lower energy bills and a healthier environment for all. Conservation can also play a key role. By employing practices to use our resources more sparingly, consumers can both save money and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On August 18, 2008, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger launched the EcoDriving program – a comprehensive effort to save consumers money at the gas pump, reduce fuel use and cut CO2 emissions. By following a set of easy-to-use best practices for driving and vehicle maintenance, a typical EcoDriver can improve mileage by approximately 15 percent. Furthermore, safety is improved when driving speeds are reduced, a key EcoDriving strategy. Similarly, consumers and businesses can save money and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by conserving resources at homes, offices and commercial buildings. For example, wireless monitor devices to provide instantaneous energy-usage information inside the home are being developed to show users how many kilowatt hours they're consuming at any given moment – as well as how much it’s costing them.74 Providing real-time information on appliance energy use can greatly assist consumers in conserving electricity use. Many Californians concerned about climate change have also begun to buy carbon offsets to mitigate the impact of their daily activities. These can take various forms, including options that allow consumers to add ‘carbon credits’ when buying airline tickets, or paying a small monthly charge on utility bills to buy green power. ARB will be working to establish clear rules for voluntary reductions and offsets that might be used for compliance with AB 32. These rules will also help establish clear guidelines for these types of voluntary carbon credit programs and provide California’s businesses and consumers greater assurance that money spent on these programs result in real reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. For more information about how to reduce one’s personal carbon footprint, visit www.coolcalifornia.org. This web site provides a carbon footprint calculator and a “top ten” list of ways to save energy at home. B.B.B.B. Public Outreach and Education Public Outreach and Education Public Outreach and Education Public Outreach and Education To be successful, a climate action program needs an effective public outreach and education program. The Proposed Plan calls for a robust statewide program designed to generate awareness and involvement in California’s climate change efforts. 74 The Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) is subsidizing PowerCost Monitors to 5,000 customers as a part of a demonstration program. [www.smud.org/residential/saving-energy/monitor.html] Proposed Scoping Plan IV. Implementation 101 The Climate Action Team will convene a steering team that includes State agencies and other public agencies such as the state’s air districts, and public and private utilities, which have a strong track record of successful efforts at public education to reduce driving (Spare the Air) or promote energy efficiency and reduce energy demand. With the release of the California Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan, the CPUC has committed to the launch of a new brand for California Energy Efficiency in 2009, focused on energy efficiency opportunities and coordinated with climate change messaging under AB 32. The steering committee will develop a coordinated array of messages and draw upon a wide range of messengers to deliver them. These will include regional and local governments whose individual outreach campaigns can reinforce the broader State outreach themes while also delivering more targeted messages directly tied to specific local and regional programs. To ensure that all Californians are included in efforts to address climate change, California will also support highly localized efforts at public education and outreach at the community and neighborhood level. This includes service club organizations and existing faith-based communities – churches, mosques and synagogues. Other private-sector entities including businesses and local chambers of commerce will be invited to partner in spreading the word. 1. Involving the Public and St1. Involving the Public and St1. Involving the Public and St1. Involving the Public and Stakeholders in Measure Developmentakeholders in Measure Developmentakeholders in Measure Developmentakeholders in Measure Development In keeping with the requirements of AB 32 and the legacy of four decades of regulatory development at ARB, we have worked to make this process fully transparent and will continue to do so as regulations to implement the plan are developed. We will continue our efforts to involve the public to the greatest extent feasible at every stage of the process, including informal and formal rulemaking activities. This will include disadvantaged communities and those with localized concerns, as well as affected industries and small businesses. Local and community meetings and outreach have been and will continue to be a central element of all rulemaking, with State agencies working closely with disadvantaged communities, EJAC, public health experts, and other stakeholders to fully evaluate the impacts associated with California’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies. State agencies involved in measure development will continue to meet periodically with communities to assess any challenges to implementation, or to discover possible new measures or approaches. Stakeholders will be invited to participate in the many additional workshops, workgroups and seminars that will be held as individual measures are developed. 2. Educa2. Educa2. Educa2. Education and Workforce Development tion and Workforce Development tion and Workforce Development tion and Workforce Development The transition to a clean energy future presents California with a tremendous opportunity to continue growing its green economy and to expand the growth of green job opportunities throughout the state. Making this transition will require a technically educated workforce that is equipped with the skills to develop and deploy 21st century technologies. Investments in training, career technical education, worker IV. Implementation Proposed Scoping Plan 102 transition assistance, and collaboration between public and private partners will be key to ensuring that California fully reaps the economic and job opportunities that will accompany implementation of AB 32. Setting California on track to a low-carbon future beyond 2020 will be a multi- generational challenge. To meet this challenge, climate-related education in schools must be a central element of California’s plan. By 2010, California will develop climate change education components to the State’s new K-12 model school curriculum as part of the Education and the Environment Initiative (AB 1548, Pavley, Chapter 665, Statutes of 2003). Expanding the knowledge and opportunities of young people to participate in promoting their own and their communities’ environmental health will be an important theme for all these efforts. In the meantime, ARB’s educational outreach will continue through the Cool California web pages (www.coolcalifornia.org) and the continued support of student educators through the California Climate Champions programs. ARB will also rely on partners throughout the state to develop and display options for curricula that will enhance the K-12, community college, trade technical training programs, and programs at four-year colleges. The demand for workers to fill green jobs is rising. There are currently more than 3,000 green businesses in the state, accounting for about 44,000 jobs: 36 percent of these jobs are in professional, scientific, and technical services; 19 percent are in construction; and 15 percent are in manufacturing.75 Some of these jobs are in new fields, yet many others are simply augmentations of existing skills and vocations such as electrical, construction, machining, auto tech, and heating ventilation and air conditioning. As we move toward 2020, tens of thousands of new green job opportunities will be created.76 Whether these opportunities come in entirely new fields of employment or in existing areas, it will be critical for California to have a trained workforce available. Ensuring that California can continue to meet the demand for green jobs will require close coordination between workforce development agencies, businesses, State and local governments, labor unions, and community colleges and universities. Many organizations are already developing strategies and identifying steps to simultaneously meet industry workforce needs and help build a more sustainable economy. For instance, the California Labor and Workforce Development Agency (LWDA) provides a comprehensive range of employment and training services in partnership with State and local agencies and organizations. Similar additional efforts will be crucial in ensuring that the transition to a green economy benefits working families in California by providing a steady supply of livable-wage jobs. In the area 75 U.C. Berkeley Labor Center. California’s Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, A Background Paper for Labor Unions. August 2008. p.7 http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/greenjobs/AB32_background_paper08.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) 76 California Economic Strategy Panel. Clean Technology and the Green Economy; Growing Products, Services, Businesses and Jobs in California’s Value Network, Draft, March 2008. http://www.labor.ca.gov/panel/pdf/DRAFT_Green_Economy_031708.pdf Proposed Scoping Plan IV. Implementation 103 of energy efficiency, the California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan, adopted by the CPUC, details a vision and supporting strategies for the development of a workforce trained and engaged to achieve California’s energy-efficiency objectives. The following strategies will be key to ensure that California’s workforce is equipped to help lead the transition to a clean energy future: · Strengthen and expand access to Career and Technical Education (CTE) in California public schools for the next generation of workers who will build a green economy. Over the past several decades, there has been a steady decline in career and technical education. In 2007, less than one-third of all high school students in the state were enrolled in some form of CTE.77 To take full advantage of the emerging green economy and meet the goals of AB 32, California needs to expand opportunities for CTE in schools. This could include pursuing strategies such as requiring CTE coursework for all middle- and high-school students; increasing the number of CTE credentialed teachers; expanding investment in facilities and equipment for career and technical education; and aligning educational curricula more closely with the skill and workforce needs of the emerging green economy. · Ensure an adequate pipeline of skilled workers who are trained in the new technologies of a greener economy. While some green jobs will be in new businesses and new occupations, most green jobs are variations of traditional occupations in sectors like construction, utilities, manufacturing and transportation.78 In light of the fact that forty percent of the nation’s skilled workers are slated to retire in the next 5 to 10 years,79 there is an urgent need for educational and training programs to fill these jobs. Strategies to create a steady pipeline of skilled workers include expanding curriculum choices in schools, colleges, and universities to fully reflect career opportunities available in an economy increasingly centered on clean technologies. Other strategies include offering a greater array of industry- and technology-specific courses that would link directly with postsecondary training such as apprenticeship programs, vocational training, or college. · Ensure that California’s higher education institutions continue to produce the next generation of clean tech engineers, scientists and business leaders. In addition to providing valuable research on potential climate-change mitigation and adaptation strategies, California’s world-class research institutions are the incubators for many of the clean tech companies that will contribute to 77 Get REAL. Aligning California’s Public Education System with the 21st Century Economy Policy Paper for Discussion at Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Summit on Career and Technical Education, March 6, 2007 78 Ibid. 79 The New Apollo Program, Clean Energy, Good Jobs: A National Economic Strategy for the New American Century, July 2008. p. 20 http://apolloalliance.org/downloads/fullreportfinal.pdf (accessed October 12, 2008) IV. Implementation Proposed Scoping Plan 104 California’s environmental and economic future. It will be critical for California to continue to cultivate university research and training programs in a way that takes full advantage of this valuable state resource. A successful transition to a clean energy future depends heavily on California’s ability to provide a well-trained workforce to meet the demands of the growing green economy. ARB and our key partners will continue working throughout the state to ensure that an adequate supply of skilled workers is positioned to take advantage of the growing opportunities for high quality jobs and careers that implementation of AB 32 will bring. 3. Small Businesses3. Small Businesses3. Small Businesses3. Small Businesses Small businesses play a crucial role in California’s economy. As noted in Chapter III, our analysis indicates that this plan will have a net positive impact on small businesses. These impacts are attributable primarily to the measures in the plan that will deliver significantly greater energy and fuel efficiencies. However, as also noted in the analysis, ensuring that these benefits are realized to the fullest potential will require additional outreach and communication efforts by ARB and many other state and local entities. One of ARB’s Early Action measures is designed to help businesses during AB 32 implementation. With our State partners, we are developing an on-line small business “toolkit” designed for small and medium-sized businesses that will provide a one-stop shop for technical and financial resources. Toolkit components will include a business-specific calculator to assess a company’s carbon footprint; a voluntary greenhouse gas inventory protocol for measuring greenhouse gas emissions; recommended best practices for energy, transportation, building, purchasing, and recycling; case studies demonstrating how small and medium California businesses have reduced greenhouse gas emissions; program financing resources; peer- networking opportunities; and an awards program to recognize reductions of greenhouse gas emissions among California businesses. ARB will also continue working with the many business associations, organizations, and other State partners, such as the Small Business Advocate’s AB 32 Small Business Task Force, the Labor and Workforce Development Agency, and Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency that have the resources, input and expertise to provide. These partners will help to further develop and implement an effective outreach plan to provide technical assistance to businesses through a variety of means, including attendance at business events, workshops, and working with local economic development agencies. C.C.C.C. Implementation of the PlanImplementation of the PlanImplementation of the PlanImplementation of the Plan This Proposed Scoping Plan outlines the regulations and other mechanisms needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in California. ARB and other State agencies will work closely with stakeholders and the public to develop regulatory measures and other programs to Proposed Scoping Plan IV. Implementation 105 implement the Plan. ARB and other State agencies will develop any regulations in accordance with established rulemaking guidelines. Table 32 shows the status of the proposed measures in the plan. Table 32: Status of Proposed Scoping Plan Measures Existing Laws, Regulations, Policies And Programs Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards (Pavley I) Renewables Portfolio Standard (to 20%) Solar Hot Water Heaters Million Solar Roofs High Speed Rail Measures Strengthening & Expanding Existing Policies & Programs Electricity Efficiency Natural Gas Efficiency Renewables Portfolio Standard (from 20% to 33%) Sustainable Forests Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Standards (Pavley II) Discrete Early Actions Low Carbon Fuel Standard High GWP in Consumer Products (Adopted) Smartways Landfill Methane Capture High GWP in Semiconductor Manufacturing Ship Electrification (Adopted) SF6 in non-electrical applications Mobile Air Conditioner Repair Cans Tire Pressure Program New Measures California Cap-and-Trade Program Linked to WCI Partner Jurisdictions Increase Combined Heat and Power Regional Transportation-Related GHG Targets Goods Movement Systemwide Efficiency Vehicle Efficiency Measures Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicle Hybridization High GWP Reductions from Mobile Sources High GWP Reductions from Stationary Sources Mitigation Fee on High GWP Gases Oil and Gas Extraction Oil and Gas Transmission Refinery Flares Removal of Methane Exemption from Existing Refinery Regulations IV. Implementation Proposed Scoping Plan 106 Rulemakings will take place over the next two years. As with all rulemaking processes, there will be ample opportunity for both informal interaction with technical staff in meetings and workshops, and formal interaction. ARB will consider all information and stakeholder input during the rulemaking process. Based on this information, ARB may modify proposed measures to reflect the status of technological development, the cost of the measure, the cost- effectiveness of the measures and other factors before presenting them to the Board for consideration and adoption. In addition to these existing approaches, AB 32 imposes other requirements for the rulemaking process. Section 38562(b) explicitly added requirements for any regulations adopted for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. ARB also recognizes the need to expand the scope of analysis required when adopting future greenhouse gas emission reduction regulations. These expanded evaluations include the unique enforcement nature of climate change-related regulations and the possible extended permitting considerations and timelines that must be taken into account when establishing compliance dates. An important consideration in developing regulations will be the potential impact on California businesses. The potential for leakage, the movement of greenhouse gas emissions (and economic activity) out of state, will be carefully evaluated during the regulatory development. As noted above, as the Scoping Plan is implemented and specific measures are developed, ARB and other implementing agencies will also conduct further CEQA analyses, including cumulative and multi-media impacts. ARB must design equitable regulations that encourage early action, do not disproportionately impact low-income and minority communities, ensure that AB 32 programs complement and do not interfere with the attainment and maintenance of ambient air quality standards, consider overall societal benefits (such as diversification of energy resources), minimize the administrative burden, and minimize the potential for leakage. AB 32 requires that, to the extent feasible and in furtherance of achieving the statewide greenhouse gas emission limit, ARB must consider the potential for direct, indirect and cumulative emission impacts from market-based compliance mechanisms, including localized impacts in communities that are already adversely impacted by air pollution, design the program to prevent any increase in emissions, and maximize additional environmental and economic benefits prior to the inclusion of market-based compliance mechanisms in the regulations. As ARB further develops its approach for consideration of these issues in future rulemakings, and updates needed analytical tools and data sets, we will consult with outside experts and the EJAC. ARB already conducts robust environmental and environmental justice assessments of our regulatory actions. Many of the requirements in AB 32 overlap with ARB’s traditional evaluations. In adopting regulations to implement the measures recommended in the Scoping Plan, or including in the regulations the use of market-based compliance mechanisms to comply with the regulations, ARB will ensure that the measures have undergone the aforementioned screenings and meet the requirements established in HSC §38562 (b) (1-9) and §38570 (b) (1-3). Proposed Scoping Plan IV. Implementation 107 D.D.D.D. Tracking and Measuring ProgressTracking and Measuring ProgressTracking and Measuring ProgressTracking and Measuring Progress Many State agencies, working with the diverse set of greenhouse gas emissions sources, have collaborated in the process of developing the strategies presented in this plan. As the agency responsible for ensuring that AB 32 requirements are met, ARB must track the regulations adopted and other actions taken by both ARB and other State agencies as the plan is implemented. The emissions reductions enumerated in this plan are estimates that may be modified based on additional information. As the proposed measures are developed over the coming years, it is possible that some of these strategies will not develop as originally thought or not be technologically feasible or cost-effective at the level given in the plan. It is equally likely that new technologies and strategies will emerge after the initial adoption schedule required in AB 32, that is, regulation adoption by January 1, 2011. If promising new tools or strategies emerge, ARB and other affected State agencies will evaluate how to incorporate the new measures into the AB 32 program. In this way, new strategies ensuring that the commitments in the plan remain whole and that the 2020 goal can be met will be incorporated into the State strategy. ARB will update the plan at least once every five years (HSC §38561(h)). These updates will allow ARB to evaluate the progress made toward the State’s greenhouse gas emission reduction goals and correct the Plan’s course where necessary. This section discusses the tracking and measurement of progress that ARB envisions. The Report Cards and audits, along with an evaluation of new technologies – both emerging and those recently incorporated into the Plan – will also provide valuable input into ARB’s update process. Continuous atmospheric monitoring of greenhouse gases may also be useful for determining the effectiveness of emission reduction strategies and for future inventory development. 1. Report Card1. Report Card1. Report Card1. Report Card SB 85 (Budget Committee, Chapter 178, Statutes of 2007) requires every State agency to prepare an annual “Report Card,” detailing measures the agency has adopted and taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the actual emissions reduced as a result of those actions. The information must be submitted to CalEPA, which is then required to compile all the State agency data into a report format, which is made available on the Internet and submitted to the Legislature. The information allows comparisons of each agency’s projected and actual greenhouse gas emissions reductions with the targets established by the CAT or the Scoping Plan. This would be the State’s ‘Report Card’ on its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Agencies are also required, as funds are available, to have an outside audit of greenhouse gas-related actions completed every three years to verify actual and projected reductions. IV. Implementation Proposed Scoping Plan 108 2. Tracking Progress by Implementing Agencies2. Tracking Progress by Implementing Agencies2. Tracking Progress by Implementing Agencies2. Tracking Progress by Implementing Agencies As the lead agency responsible for implementing AB 32, ARB must track the progress of both our efforts and the efforts of our partners in implementing their respective provisions of this plan. Communication between ARB and the other implementing agencies will be especially important as regulations and programs are developed. In support of the Report Card requirement noted above, ARB will work with CalEPA to develop a process to track and report on progress toward the plan’s goals and commitments. 3. Progress Toward the State Government Target3. Progress Toward the State Government Target3. Progress Toward the State Government Target3. Progress Toward the State Government Target The CAT recently established a State Government Subgroup to work with State agencies to create a statewide approach to meet the Scoping Plan’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a minimum of 30 percent by 2020 below the State’s estimated business-as-usual emissions – approximately a 15 percent reduction from current levels. State agencies must lead by example by doing their part to reduce emissions and employ practices that can also be transferred to the private sector. The statewide plan will serve as a guide for State agencies to achieve realistic, measurable objectives within specific timelines. This newly created State Government Subgroup will assist State agencies through these steps in a timely manner. 4. Mandatory Reporting Regulation4. Mandatory Reporting Regulation4. Mandatory Reporting Regulation4. Mandatory Reporting Regulation ARB’s mandatory reporting rule, adopted in December 2007, will help the State obtain facility-level data from the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in California. This data will help ARB better understand these sources to develop the proposed emissions reduction measures outlined in this plan. The regulation requires annual reporting from the largest facilities in the state, accounting for 94 percent of greenhouse gas emissions from industrial and commercial stationary sources in California. There are approximately 800 separate sources that fall under the new reporting rules, which include electricity generating facilities, electricity retail providers and power marketers, oil refineries, hydrogen plants, cement plants, cogeneration facilities, and industrial sources that emit over 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide each year from on-site stationary source combustions such as large furnaces. This last category includes a diverse range of facilities such as food processing, glass container manufacturers, oil and gas production, and mineral processing. Affected facilities will begin tracking their greenhouse gas emissions in 2008, to be reported beginning in 2009 with a phase-in process to allow facilities to develop reporting systems and train personnel in data collection. Emissions for 2008 may be based on best available data. Beginning in 2010, emissions reports will be more rigorous and will be subject to third-party verification. Reported emissions data will allow ARB to improve its facility-based emissions inventory data. Originally, the statewide greenhouse gas inventory was based on aggregated sector data and could Proposed Scoping Plan IV. Implementation 109 not be broken down to the facility level. The facility-level reporting required under the Mandatory Reporting regulation will improve data on greenhouse gas emissions for individual facilities and their emitting processes. This information could also help improve emissions inventories for criteria pollutants, and provide additional data for assessing cumulative emission impacts on a community level. ARB emissions reporting requirements are expected to be modified over time as AB 32 is implemented. EEEE.... EnforcementEnforcementEnforcementEnforcement Enforcement is a critical component of all of the State’s regulatory programs, both to ensure that emissions are actually reduced and to provide a level playing field for entities complying with the law. To meet the 2020 target this plan calls for aggressive action by a number of State agencies. Each of those agencies will employ its full range of compliance and enforcement options to ensure that planned reductions are achieved. The remainder of this section discusses ARB’s portion of the enforcement program in more detail. ARB has an extensive and effective enforcement program covering a wide variety of regulated sources, from heavy-duty vehicle idling, to consumer products, to fuel standards and off-road equipment. To increase the effectiveness of its enforcement efforts and provide greater assurance of compliance, ARB also partners with local, State and federal agencies to carry out inspections and, when necessary, prosecute violators. ARB will continue its strong enforcement presence as the State's primary air pollution control agency. A critical function of this responsibility is to ensure that all enforcement actions are timely, effective, and appropriate with the severity of the situation. ARB will also continue its close working relationship with local air districts in the development and enforcement of applicable regulations contained within the Scoping Plan and collaborate with the appropriate State agencies on greenhouse gas emission reductions measures. For the stationary source regulations called for in the plan, ARB will work closely with the local air districts that have primary responsibility for implementing and enforcing criteria pollutant regulations. Not only are local air districts familiar with the individual facilities and their compliance history, but information contained in district permits can be used to verify the accuracy of greenhouse gas emissions reported by sources subject to ARB mandatory reporting requirements. Using this data, regulators can also examine any correlation between greenhouse gases and toxic or criteria air pollutants as a result of emissions trading or direct regulations. ARB will also continue to partner with the California Highway Patrol and other State and local enforcement agencies on mobile source and other laws and regulations where joint enforcement authorities apply. IV. Implementation Proposed Scoping Plan 110 Although many of the measures in the Proposed Scoping Plan are modeled on existing ARB regulations, a multi-sector, regional cap-and-trade program would bring unique enforcement challenges. ARB and CalEPA have begun the process of engaging and consulting with other State agencies, such as California’s Department of Justice, Public Utilities Commission, Energy Commission, as well as the Independent System Operator, on market tracking and enforcement. These working group meetings are ongoing and will culminate in a comprehensive enforcement plan to accompany the proposed cap-and-trade program when the Board considers regulatory requirements. This enforcement plan would describe the administrative structures needed for market monitoring, prosecution, and penalty setting. Public input regarding these issues would also be a key part of the public stakeholder process conducted during development of the cap-and-trade programs regulations. Accurate measurement and reporting of all emissions would be necessary to assure accountability, establish the integrity of allowances, and provide sufficient transparency to sustain confidence in the market. To ensure compliance, ARB would administer penalties for entities that hold an insufficient quantity of allowances to cover their emissions or fail to report their greenhouse gas emissions. Missed compliance deadlines would also result in the application of stringent administrative, civil, or criminal penalties. This plan recommends that California implement a cap-and-trade program that links with other Western Climate Initiative partner programs to create a regional market system. This system would require California to formalize enforcement agreements with its WCI partner jurisdictions for all phases of cap-and-trade program operations, including verification of emissions, certification of offsets based on common protocols, and detection of and punishment for non-compliance. As needed, California would also work with federal regulatory and enforcement agencies that oversee trading markets, such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. While California would work with other jurisdictions on joint enforcement activities, ARB will exercise all of its authority under HSC §38580 and other provisions of law to enforce its regulations against any violator wherever they may be. FFFF.... State and Local Permitting ConsiderationsState and Local Permitting ConsiderationsState and Local Permitting ConsiderationsState and Local Permitting Considerations Some of the proposed emissions reduction strategies in this Proposed Scoping Plan may require affected entities to modify or obtain state or local permits. California’s existing permit process ensures that health and safety concerns are evaluated, met, and when appropriate, mitigated. The State recognizes the potential for conflicts between various federal, state and local permitting requirements, which may cross various media – air, water, etc. CalEPA is actively involved in identifying and addressing these regulatory overlap issues with the ultimate goal of consolidating permits where feasible while maintaining all permit requirements. Two such examples are CalEPA’s digester permit working group and the CalEPA-Air District Compost Emissions Work Group. ARB recognizes that the permitting process may affect the viability of certain strategies and that the length of the permitting process could affect the timing of emissions reductions. Proposed Scoping Plan IV. Implementation 111 ARB, along with CalEPA and other State agencies, will continue to evaluate steps to ensure that permit requirements harmonize across the affected media. This Plan has been developed with an understanding of the important cross-media impacts. These efforts will continue during the implementation of the Plan. Particular focus on the potential permitting impacts and cross-media consequences of a proposed rule will take place during the rulemaking process. GGGG.... Role of Local Air DistrictsRole of Local Air DistrictsRole of Local Air DistrictsRole of Local Air Districts Local air districts are ARB’s partners in addressing air pollution. ARB takes primary responsibility for transportation, off-road equipment and consumer products. Local districts lead in controlling industrial, commercial and other stationary sources of air emissions. AB 32 recognizes the need to develop a program that meshes with local and regional activities. Although AB 32 does not provide an explicit role for air districts, their local presence as advocates for clean air and their resources, experience and expertise in regulating and enforcing rules for stationary sources make them a logical choice to have an important role in several aspects of implementing California’s greenhouse gas program. ARB would partner with local air districts to develop and effectively enforce both source-specific requirements on industrial sources, and to enforce related programs, such as the high GWP rules, that affect a large number of local businesses. ARB and local air districts are also actively working to coordinate emission reporting requirements. Some districts, like the South Coast Air Quality Management District, have developed software to allow their industrial sources to simultaneously report their criteria pollutant emissions to the District and their greenhouse gas emissions to ARB. Many air district staff are being trained as third-party verifiers to confirm the greenhouse gas emissions information provided by industrial sources under the mandatory reporting regulation, and, similarly, could provide verification of voluntary greenhouse gas reductions in the future. Local air districts will be key in both encouraging greenhouse gas emissions reductions from other regional and local government entities, and providing technical assistance to quantify and verify those reductions. Local agencies are an important component of ARB’s outreach strategy. Many local air districts have already taken a leadership role in addressing greenhouse gas emissions in their communities. These efforts are intended to encourage early voluntary reductions. For example, local districts are “lead agencies” under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) for some projects. In order to ensure high-quality mitigation projects, some districts have established programs to encourage local greenhouse gas reductions that could be used as CEQA mitigation. As the State begins to institutionalize mechanisms to generate and verify greenhouse gas emissions reductions, ARB and the districts must work together to smoothly transition to a cohesive statewide program with consistent technical standards. IV. Implementation Proposed Scoping Plan 112 HHHH.... Program FundingProgram FundingProgram FundingProgram Funding Administration, implementation, and enforcement of the emissions reduction measures contained in the Proposed Scoping Plan will require a stable and continuing source of funding. AB 32 authorizes ARB to collect fees to fund implementation of the statute. This fall ARB will initiate a rulemaking for a fee program to fund administration of the program. Approximately $55 million per year will be needed on an ongoing basis to fund implementation by ARB and other State agencies, based on the positions and funding included in the 2008-2009 fiscal year budget. Additional revenues are needed to repay the loans from State funds that were used to pay ARB and CalEPA expenses in the startup of the program. ARB is moving on an expedited schedule to develop a fee regulation and expects to take a regulation to the Board in early 2009, with the aim of beginning to collect fees in the 2009-2010 fiscal year. Proposed Scoping Plan V. A Vision for the Future 113 V.V.V.V. A VISION FOR THE FUTUREA VISION FOR THE FUTUREA VISION FOR THE FUTUREA VISION FOR THE FUTURE California has the know-how, ingenuity, research capabilities, and culture of innovation to meet the challenge of addressing climate change. However, reaching the goals we have set for ourselves will not be easy. Successful implementation of many of the proposed programs and measures described in this plan will require strong leadership and a shared understanding of the need to reach viable and lasting solutions quickly. This challenge will also require establishing a wide range of partnerships, both within California and beyond our borders. We will need to support additional research, and further develop our culture of innovation and technological invention. In order to continue the momentum and the commitment to a clean energy future, we will need to both build on existing solutions and develop new ones. The following sections lay out some of the elements that will be necessary to forge a broad- based institutional strategy to address climate change both within California and beyond. Also discussed is the need to build partnerships on the regional, national and international levels to ensure that our actions complement and support those being taken on a global scale. This section also looks forward to 2030, showing that California is on the trajectory needed to do our part to stabilize global climate. A.A.A.A. CollaborationCollaborationCollaborationCollaboration 1. 1. 1. 1. Working Closely with Key PartnersWorking Closely with Key PartnersWorking Closely with Key PartnersWorking Closely with Key Partners True climate change mitigation will require many parties to work together for a global mitigation plan. California and other states are filling a vacuum created by the current lack of leadership at the federal level. By its bold actions, California is moving the United States closer to a seat at the table among the developed countries that have agreed to reduce their carbon emissions, and lead a new international effort for an agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012. Any national climate program must be built on a partnership with State and local governments to ensure that states can continue their role as incubators of climate change policy and can implement effective programs such as vehicle standards, energy efficiency programs, green building codes, and alternative fuel development. California will work for climate solutions with key federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy and their national labs, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and others. V. A Vision for the Future Proposed Scoping Plan 114 Through the Western Climate Initiative and in collaboration with other regional alliances of states, California can promote its own best practices and learn from others while helping to formulate the structure of a regional and ultimately national cap-and- trade program. 2. 2. 2. 2. InternationalInternationalInternationalInternational As one of the largest economies in the world, California is committed to working at the international level to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. As part of this effort, Governor Schwarzenegger and other U.S. governors taking the lead in climate change are co-hosting a Global Climate Summit on Finding Solutions Through Regional and Global Action. This summit, to be held on November 18th and 19th, 2008, will begin a state-province partnership with leaders from the U.S., Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the European Union, and other nations, to take urgent steps to contain global climate change and jointly set forth a blueprint for the next global agreement on climate change solutions. California is also a charter member of the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP), an organization composed of countries and regions that have adopted carbon caps and that are actively pursuing the implementation of carbon markets through mandatory cap-and-trade systems. California’s continued involvement in ICAP will be very beneficial for sharing experiences and knowledge as we design our own market program. In addition to participating in ICAP, California hopes to engage developing countries to pursue a low-carbon development path. With developing nations expected to suffer the most from the effects of climate change, California and others have an obligation to share information and resources on cost-effective technologies and approaches for mitigating both emissions and future impacts as changes in climate and the environment occur. California recognizes the “common but differentiated responsibilities” among developed and developing countries (as articulated in the Kyoto Protocol), but the reality is that rapidly escalating greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries could possibly negate any efforts undertaken in California. To the extent that we are part of the global economy, California’s demand for goods manufactured in developing countries further exacerbates growth of greenhouse gas emissions globally. Therefore, it is critical for California to help support the adoption of low- carbon technologies and sustainable development in the developing world. California can advance the international policy debate through state-provincial partnerships for achieving early climate action in developing countries. This approach envisions commitments by developed countries to provide capacity building through technological assistance and investment support in return for developing countries adopting enhanced mitigation actions. California will consider working with developing countries or provinces that have, at a minimum, pledged to achieve greenhouse gas intensity targets in certain carbon-intensive sectors through Proposed Scoping Plan V. A Vision for the Future 115 mechanisms, such as minimum performance standards or sector benchmarks. California also recognizes that developing countries have the challenge and responsibility to reduce domestic emissions in a way that will promote sustainable development, but not undermine their economic growth. One possible manifestation of these collaborations could be the establishment of sectoral agreements that help to grow developing countries’ economies in a low- carbon manner. In a sectoral approach, energy-intensive sectors adopt programs for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and/or energy use. Such sector-based approaches seem likely to win the support of developing countries and could also reduce concerns in developed countries about international competitiveness and carbon leakage. A state-provincial partnership related to imported commodities (such as cement) would enable California to provide incentives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with products that are imported by our state. California should continue to develop current relations and existing partnership arrangements with China – now the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world – because in addition to other compelling reasons much of the state’s imported cement originates in China. California should also work to establish similar relations with India and other countries to share research on both greenhouse gas mitigation and climate change adaptation activities. Projects in the Mexican border region may also be of particular interest, considering the opportunity to realize considerable co-benefits on both sides of the border. Deforestation accounts for approximately 20 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. California has set a strong precedent in the effort to incorporate forest management and conservation into climate policy by adopting the CCAR forest methodology in October 2007. California also hopes to engage developing countries, including Brazil and Indonesia, to reduce emissions and sequester carbon through eligible forest carbon activities. Activities aimed at Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) were excluded from the rules governing the first Kyoto commitment period, but there is considerable momentum behind the effort to include provisions that would recognize such activities in a post- 2012 international agreement. Providing incentives to developing countries to help cut emissions by preserving standing forests, and to sequester additional carbon through the restoration and reforestation of degraded lands and forests and improved forest management practices, will be crucial in bringing those countries into the global climate protection effort. California recognizes the importance of establishing mechanisms that will facilitate global partnerships and sustainable financing mechanisms to support eligible forest carbon activities in the developing world. V. A Vision for the Future Proposed Scoping Plan 116 B.B.B.B. ResearchResearchResearchResearch 1. 1. 1. 1. Unleash the Potential of California’s Universities and Private Unleash the Potential of California’s Universities and Private Unleash the Potential of California’s Universities and Private Unleash the Potential of California’s Universities and Private SectorSectorSectorSector Bringing greenhouse gas emissions down to a level that will allow the climate to stabilize will take a generation or longer. Many of the ultimate solutions to achieve stabilization will be developed and implemented well into the future. Innovation in energy and climate will come from people who are now in school. These young people will face unprecedented challenges, and they will need both wisdom and imagination to craft solutions. California’s respected public and private academic institutions must continue to develop and fund programs based on climate change science that cut across disciplines to address the multi-dimensional aspects of climate change. 2. 2. 2. 2. PublicPublicPublicPublic----Private PartnershipsPrivate PartnershipsPrivate PartnershipsPrivate Partnerships To most effectively address the climate change dilemma, we must encourage collaborations between academia and the private sector. Industry is well-positioned to quickly attack problems. Combining the vast knowledge housed in universities with businesses’ acumen and agility can unleash a powerful collaborative force to tackle the problems associated with climate change. Several important programs have already been initiated at California universities, including Stanford’s Global Climate and Energy Project and the University of California at Berkeley’s Energy Biosciences Institute (EBI).80 These and other efforts need to be recognized and encouraged, along with others that can link the results of research directly to policy decisions that the State must make. Carbon Sequestration Carbon Sequestration Carbon Sequestration Carbon Sequestration In addition to terrestrial carbon sequestration or natural carbon sinks such as forests and soil, CO2 can be prevented from entering the atmosphere through carbon capture and storage (CCS). This consists of separating CO2 from industrial and energy- related sources and transporting the CO2 to a storage location for long-term isolation from the atmosphere. Potential technical storage methods include geological storage, industrial fixation of CO2 into inorganic carbonates, and other strategies. Large point sources of CO2 that may pursue CCS include large power plants, fossil fuel-based hydrogen production plants, and oil refineries.81 80 The EBI is being developed in cooperation with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and BP. 81 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage: A Special Report of Working Group III of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, UK; 2005. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/srccs.htm (accessed October 12, 2008) Proposed Scoping Plan V. A Vision for the Future 117 According to a 2005 report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), a power plant with CCS could reduce CO2 emissions to the atmosphere by approximately 80 to 90 percent compared to a plant without CCS (including the energy used to capture, compress and transport CO2).82 While more research and development needs to occur, California should both support near-term advancement of the technology and ensure that an adequate framework is in place to provide credit for CCS projects when appropriate. The State is currently an active member of the West Coast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (WESTCARB), a public-private collaboration to characterize regional carbon sequestration opportunities in seven western states and one Canadian province. Established in 2003, this research project is comprised of more than 80 public and private organizations. WESTCARB is conducting technology validation field tests, identifying major sources of CO2 in its territory, assessing the status and cost of technologies for separating CO2 from process and exhaust gases, and determining the potential for storing captured CO2 in secure geologic formations.83 C.C.C.C. Reducing California’s Emissions Further Reducing California’s Emissions Further Reducing California’s Emissions Further Reducing California’s Emissions Further –––– A Look Forward to 2030A Look Forward to 2030A Look Forward to 2030A Look Forward to 2030 In order to assess whether implementing this plan achieves the State’s long-term climate goals, we must look beyond 2020 to see whether the emissions reduction measures set California on the trajectory needed to do our part to stabilize global climate. Governor Schwarzenegger’s Executive Order S-3-05 calls for an 80 percent reduction below 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels by 2050. This results in a 2050 target of about 85 MMTCO2E (total emissions), as compared to the 1990 level (also the 2020 target) of 427 MMTCO2E. Climate scientists tell us that the 2050 target represents the level of greenhouse gas emissions that advanced economies must reach if the climate is to be stabilized in the latter half of the 21st century. Full implementation of the Proposed Scoping Plan will put California on a path toward these required long-term reductions. Just as importantly, it will put into place many of the measures needed to keep us on that path. Figure 6 depicts what an emissions trajectory might look like, assuming California follows a linear path from the 2020 AB 32 emissions target to the 2050 goal needed to help stabilize climate. While the measures needed to meet the 2050 goal are too far in the future to define in detail, we can examine the policies needed to keep us on track through at least 2030. 82 Ibid 83 WESTCARB. WESTCARB Overview. http://www.westcarb.org/about_overview.htm (accessed October 12, 2008) V. A Vision for the Future Proposed Scoping Plan 118 Figure 6: Emissions Trajectory Toward 2050 14.3 13.3 1.4 3.4 5.8 9.6 13.3 452 427 522 422 284 185 85 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Per-capita Emissions (MT/person/year)Emissions (MMTCO2E) To stay on course toward the 2050 target our State’s greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced to below 300 MMTCO2E by 2030. This translates to an average reduction of four percent per year between 2020 and 2030. An additional challenge comes from the fact that California’s population is expected to grow by about 12 percent between 2020 and 2030. To counteract this trend, per-capita emissions must decrease at an average rate of slightly less than five percent per year during the 2020 to 2030 period. Are such reductions possible by 2030? What measures might be able to provide the needed reductions? How do the needed measures relate to the efforts put into place to reach the 2020 goal? All of these are critical questions, and are addressed below. The answer to the first question is yes, the reductions are possible. Furthermore, the measures needed are logical expansions of the programs recommended in the Proposed Scoping Plan that get us to the 2020 goal. We could keep on track through 2030 by extending those programs in the following ways: · Using a regional or national cap-and-trade system to further limit emissions from the 85 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in capped sectors (Transportation Fuels and other fuel use, Electricity, Residential/Commercial Natural Gas, and Industry). By 2030 a comprehensive cap-and-trade program could lower emissions in the capped sectors from 365 MMTCO2E in 2020 to around 250 MMTCO2E in 2030; Proposed Scoping Plan V. A Vision for the Future 119 · Achieving a 40 percent fleet-wide passenger vehicle reduction by 2030, approximately double the almost 20 percent expected in 2020; · Increasing California’s use of renewable energy; · Reducing the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 25 percent (a further decrease from the 10 percent level set for 2020); · Increasing energy efficiency and green building efforts so that the savings achieved in the 2020 to 2030 timeframe are approximately double those accomplished in 2020; and · Continuing to implement sound land use and transportation policies to lower VMT and shift travel modes. The effects of these strategies are presented in Table 33. Table 33: Potential Distribution of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in 2030 Sector Potential Emissions (MMTCO2E) Transportation Fuels* 102 Other Fuel Use* 149 Uncapped Sectors 33 Total 284 * Capped sector With these polices and measures in place, per-capita electricity consumption would decrease by another five percent. Well over half of our electricity demand could be met with zero or near zero greenhouse gas emitting technologies, assuming nuclear and large hydro power holds constant at present-day levels. In response to a lower cap on emissions, existing coal generation contracts would not be renewed, or carbon capture and storage would be utilized to minimize emissions. The remaining electricity generation would come from natural gas combustion either in cogeneration applications or from highly efficient generating units. By 2030, the transportation sector would undergo a similarly massive transition both in terms of the vehicle fleet and the diversity of fuel supplies. Due to the combination of California’s clean car standards (ARB’s ZEV program and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard), the number of battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles would increase dramatically, to about a third of the vehicle fleet. Flex-fuel vehicles would comprise a large fraction of the remaining fleet, with more efficient gasoline and diesel vehicles making up the difference. Electricity, advanced biofuels, improved gasoline and diesel, renewable natural gas and hydrogen would all play a role in powering this high-tech fleet of efficient vehicles. V. A Vision for the Future Proposed Scoping Plan 120 Regional land use and transportation strategies would grow in importance and would reverse the trend of per-capita vehicle miles traveled, a reduction of about eight percent below business-as-usual in 2030. With ambitious but reasonable action, statewide passenger vehicle greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced to half of 2020 levels in 2030, which is also about half of business-as-usual for 2030. Efficiency strategies and low carbon fuels for heavy-duty and off-road vehicles, as well as for ships, rail, and aviation, would need to be greatly expanded in order to achieve additional reductions from the transportation sector in 2030. In tandem with efficiency measures that lower demand for electricity, natural gas and transportation fuels, California’s cap-and-trade program would incent large industrial sources as well as commercial and residential natural gas customers to further reduce emissions. By tightening the cap over time, it is expected that facilities in the industrial and natural gas sectors would achieve reductions well beyond those needed to meet the 2020 emissions cap. The Proposed Scoping Plan proposes several measures for reducing high GWP gases that collectively, will substantially reduce emissions. With a transition toward reduced consumption of these gases, improved containment in their end uses, and substitution of low GWP alternative gases, it is expected that emissions from this sector could decrease by 75 percent between 2020 and 2030. For uncapped sectors, we assume that the agriculture sector will reduce emissions by about 15 percent between 2020 and 2030. Net forest uptake of CO2 must be preserved or enhanced, likely through both expansion of forests and reduction in carbon loss from forest fires, which are predicted to increase over this time period. This example assumes a 10 percent reduction in direct landfill emissions from the recycling and waste sector; however, aggressive implementation of the suite of measures proposed in this Plan could further reduce emissions from this sector by 2030. In total, the measures described above would produce reductions to bring California’s statewide greenhouse gas emissions to an estimated 284 MMTCO2E in 2030. While the potential mix of future climate policies articulated in this section is only an example, it serves to demonstrate that the measures in the Proposed Scoping Plan can not only move California to its 2020 goal, but also provide an expandable framework for much greater long-term greenhouse gas emissions reductions. D.D.D.D. ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion California’s commitment to address global warming has never been greater. The vast amount of interest, support, and input that ARB has received since this plan began to take shape is evidence of a clear understanding of the need to take action and support for the State’s efforts to lead the way. The time has come to shift away from a ‘business-as-usual’ approach to climate change and to move toward the lasting and sustainable goal of a clean energy future. Proposed Scoping Plan V. A Vision for the Future 121 Reaching our goals will take a great deal of leadership, commitment, and a willingness to embrace new approaches and seek out new solutions. California’s plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must also take into account the impacts of this transition and be designed in particular to address the needs of low-income communities, small businesses, and California’s working families. Reaching our goals will also require involvement and support from all levels of government in California, and a coordinated effort with other states, regions, and countries. The solutions and technologies we develop here will be used around the world to help others transition to a clean energy future and contribute to the fight against global warming. Reaching our goals will also require flexibility. As we move forward, we must be prepared to make mid-course corrections. AB 32 wisely requires ARB to update its Scoping Plan every five years, thereby ensuring that California stays on the path toward a low carbon future. This plan is part of a new chapter for California that in many ways began with the passage and signing of AB 32. It proposes a comprehensive set of actions designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in California, improve our environment, reduce our dependence on oil, diversify our energy sources, save energy, create new jobs, and enhance public health. The challenge California has taken on is large but the opportunities are even greater. It is now time to turn this plan into action. 122 ACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTS This Proposed Scoping Plan was prepared by the Air Resources Board. This document was made possible by the hard work of numerous contributors. Below is a list of advisory committees and State agencies that directly provided input to this Proposed Scoping Plan. Team Support Team Support Team Support Team Support Climate Action Team Climate Action Team Sector Subgroups ···· Agriculture ···· Cement ···· Energy ···· Forest ···· Green Buildings ···· Land Use ···· Recycling and Waste Management ···· State Fleet ···· Water-Energy ···· Economics Advisory CommitteesAdvisory CommitteesAdvisory CommitteesAdvisory Committees Market Advisory Committee Environmental Justice Advisory Committee Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee State AgenciesState AgenciesState AgenciesState Agencies Governor’s Office of Planning and Research California Environmental Protection Agency Business, Transportation and Housing Agency Resources Agency State and Consumer Services Agency Department of Food and Agriculture California Energy Commission California Public Utilities Commission California Transportation Commission Department of Conservation Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Department of General Services Department of Parks and Recreation Department of Public Health Department of Toxic Substances Control Department of Transportation Department of Water Resources Housing and Community Development Integrated Waste Management Board Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment State Water Resources Control Board Department of Pesticide Regulation Sharon L. Anderson Darlene Atkinson Barbara Bamberger Bill Blackburn Jeannie Blakeslee Edie Chang Steve Cliff Jon Costantino Cheri Davis Paul Domich Karin Donhowe Brieanne Douke Ashley Dunn Rob DuVall Mary Farr Jennifer Gray Jerry Hart Alana Hitchcock Lisa Holm Kevin Kennedy Karen Khamou Bill Knox Renae Maher Dennis O’Bryant Patti Ochoa Ray Olsson Claudia Orlando Johnnie Raymond Christine Seghers Charles M. Shulock Sandee Smith Gina Sterling Bruce Tuter Lucille van Ommering Rich Varenchik Sam Wade Mark Wenzel Tabetha Willmon Matt Zaragoza